Rockies at Astros
O/U 8.5 · RL Astros -1.5 · Daikin Park
Astros ML-196
CONF 80%
WCashedFinal 6-7
The read
We are live under the bright lights and closed roof of Daikin Park, where the Astros look to build on a slump-busting win against a Rockies team that is struggling to find its footing away from the mountain air. This matchup features a stark contrast in pitching trajectories, as the veteran southpaw Jose Quintana attempts to navigate a Houston lineup that historically punishes left-handed pitching, while the Astros hand the ball to a highly-touted arm in Spencer Arrighetti for his season debut.
The tactical advantage for Houston’s offense is overwhelming in this spot. Quintana struggled with efficiency in his limited action this season, posting a bloated 1.85 WHIP that suggests he is living dangerously with base runners. That is a fatal flaw against an Astros core that averages 5.7 runs per game and features elite "lefty-killers" like Yordan Alvarez, who carries a massive 1.104 OPS against southpaws. Furthermore, Christian Walker has turned hammering Rockies pitching into a science, recently taking the sole lead for the most career home runs against Colorado among active players. In a controlled, hitter-friendly environment like Daikin Park, the Astros' right-handed power should thrive.
The situational data heavily favors the home side as well. Houston is a sharp 6-2 at home this year, a complete reversal of their dismal 1-9 road record. Conversely, the Rockies have looked lost on the road, winning just two of eleven contests. While Spencer Arrighetti is a rookie, his 12.6 K/9 and 1.26 ERA in Triple-A indicate he possesses the swing-and-miss stuff necessary to exploit a Colorado lineup that is prone to strikeouts outside of Coors Field. Colorado has lost five straight games and is currently plagued by defensive lapses; as long as Houston plays clean baseball, their superior offensive ceiling and home-field dominance should carry the night.
Injuries noted
Astros: [KNOWN] Cristian Javier (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Javier was lifted from Wednesday's start in Colorado after just one inning due to an apparent injury, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. (Apr 10 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Brown (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Brown has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 right shoulder strain and will be shut down from throwing "for a few weeks." (Apr 7 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Zach Dezenzo (First Baseman) — Elbow (Right): Astros manager Joe Espada said Sunday that Dezenzo won't be part of the Opening Day roster and will remain at extended spring training to rehab his right elbow injury, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. (Mar 25 — 21d ago) [NEW] Cody Bolton (Relief Pitcher) — Back (Not Specified): The Astros placed Bolton on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with mid-back inflammation, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports. (Apr 15 — 0d ago) [NEW] Tatsuya Imai (SP) — Arm (Right): Imaging on Imai's right arm came back negative, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. (Apr 14 — 1d ago) [NEW] Jeremy Pena (Shortstop) — Hamstring (Right): Pena (knee) is not in the lineup for Sunday's game against the Mariners, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. (Apr 13 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Bennett Sousa (Relief Pitcher) — Oblique (Left): Sousa (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Sugar Land on Saturday. (Apr 11 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Jake Meyers (Center Fielder) — Oblique (Right): Meyers was removed from Wednesday's game versus the Rockies in the second inning due to lower-back tightness, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. (Apr 10 — 5d ago) Rockies: [NEW] Kyle Freeland (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): The Rockies placed Freeland on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with left shoulder inflammation. (Apr 15 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Kris Bryant (Right Fielder) — Back (Not Specified): Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports. (Feb 17 — 57d ago)
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