Mets at Dodgers
O/U 7.5 · RL Dodgers -1.5 · Dodger Stadium
Dodgers -1.5+114
CONF 85%
WCashedFinal 0-4
The read
The lights are bright at Dodger Stadium as the two-way phenom Nolan McLean attempts to play stopper against a Dodgers juggernaut that looks every bit like a three-peat champion. Los Angeles is rolling right now, and this matchup feels like two teams heading in completely opposite directions.
The Mets are in a historic offensive tailspin, currently mired in a 20-inning scoreless streak. Losing Juan Soto to a calf strain just three days ago has effectively gutted the heart of their order, leaving a struggling Francisco Lindor and Bo Bichette to carry a load they haven't proven capable of handling lately. Against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, that’s a nightmare scenario. Yamamoto has been the model of efficiency, surrendering only five earned runs over 18 innings while maintaining a 0.89 WHIP. He gives the Dodgers six innings of high-quality work every time he takes the mound, and with a defense behind him that leads the majors in efficiency, there are no easy outs for a New York lineup ranking last in Isolated Power.
The relief situation further tilts this game toward the home side. Because Justin Wrobleski gave the Dodgers eight innings of shutout ball yesterday, manager Dave Roberts has his entire high-leverage bullpen completely rested. That includes a fully fresh Edwin Díaz—despite some early velocity concerns—and the dominant arms of Phillips and Alex Vesia. Conversely, the Mets lost a key bridge in Joey Gerber after his high pitch count yesterday, leaving their relief unit thin if McLean gets chased early. While McLean’s hit-suppression numbers are elite, he’s averaging less than six innings per start and faces a Dodgers lineup that puts constant pressure on the bases.
Andy Pages is hitting .417 and Shohei Ohtani’s 47-game on-base streak is the real deal; they are finding ways to score even with Mookie Betts sidelined by a recent oblique strain. With the Mets riding a six-game losing streak and looking completely lost at the plate, there’s no reason to look for an upset here. The Dodgers are superior in every phase of the game right now, and the pitching matchup favors the more experienced and efficient Yamamoto.
Injuries noted
Dodgers: [KNOWN] Gavin Stone (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Stone (shoulder) has resumed throwing, per MLB.com. (Apr 3 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Landon Knack (Starting Pitcher) — Chest (Not Specified): The Dodgers placed Knack on the 15-day injured list Monday due to an intercostal strain, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports. (Mar 25 — 20d ago) [NEW] Ben Casparius (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Casparius said Saturday at DodgerFest, the team's fan event, that he prepared himself as a starting pitcher this offseason, Steve Webb of DodgersBeat.com reports. (Apr 13 — 1d ago) [NEW] Mookie Betts (Shortstop) — Oblique (Right): Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Friday that Betts is "symptom-free" in regard to his strained right oblique, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports. (Apr 12 — 2d ago) Mets: [NEW] Jared Young (First Baseman) — Knee (Left): Young went 3-for-3 with a double in Sunday's 5-2 win over the Giants. (Apr 14 — 0d ago) [NEW] Joey Gerber (Relief Pitcher) — Finger (Right): Gerber struck out five and gave up two hits and a walk over two scoreless innings of relief in Monday's loss to the Dodgers. (Apr 14 — 0d ago) [NEW] Juan Soto (Left Fielder) — Calf (Right): Soto (calf) could return for the start of the Mets' next homestand April 21, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports. (Apr 11 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Justin Hagenman (Relief Pitcher) — Ribs: The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture. (Mar 14 — 31d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Waddell (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): The Mets outrighted Waddell to Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. (Mar 8 — 37d ago) [KNOWN] Dedniel Nunez (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday. (Feb 15 — 58d ago) [KNOWN] Tylor Megill (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports. (Feb 12 — 61d ago) [KNOWN] Reed Garrett (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday. (Feb 10 — 63d ago)
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored April 14, 2026 at 6:06 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, fanatics, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2Shohei OhtaniOVER 0.5 Hits Hits+195
Not yet graded
Shohei Ohtani enters this contest with a career-high 47-game on-base streak and is currently the most locked-in hitter in the Dodgers' lineup. Over his last 10 games, he is batting .310 with five home runs, showing he is seeing the ball exceptionally well.
While Mets starter Nolan McLean has been tough to hit this season (4.3 H/9), Ohtani's elite bat speed and ability to drive the ball to all fields make him the best bet to record a hit. Batting at the top of the order ensures he will see maximum plate appearances (4-5), giving him plenty of opportunities to find a hole in the defense.
The +195 odds for a single hit from a player of Ohtani's caliber represents significant value, even against a rising star pitcher.
Luis Robert Jr.OVER 0.5 Hits Hits+155
Not yet graded
Luis Robert Jr. remains the primary offensive bright spot for a Mets team that has failed to score a run in 20 consecutive innings.
Despite the team's collective slump, Robert has maintained his consistency, recording at least one hit in 70% of his last 10 games. He faces Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has been dominant (0.89 WHIP), but Robert's aggressive profile and high-contact rate against right-handed power pitching make him the most likely candidate to break the Mets' scoreless drought.
As the number two hitter, he will benefit from seeing Yamamoto early and often, and his ability to hit for extra bases means he only needs one well-placed ball to clear this line.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store