MLB · Sat, Apr 11 · 2:20 PM

Pirates at Cubs

O/U 6.5 · RL Cubs -1.5 · Wrigley Field

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cubs· +122

We’ve got a cold afternoon on the North Side where the ivy hasn't even woken up yet, and the flags at Wrigley are already stiff-armed and pointing directly back at home plate. The Pirates took the opener with a two-run blast that cut through the lake air, and today we get a fascinating duel between two of the game’s most promising young arms in Braxton Ashcraft and Edward Cabrera. The market has the Cubs priced as a decent favorite here, likely because Cabrera hasn't surrendered an earned run yet in 2026, but if you look under the hood, that zero is a miracle of sequencing. Cabrera walked five batters in less than six innings during his last outing against the Angels; he’s walking a tightrope without a net. Meanwhile, Braxton Ashcraft is coming off a masterclass against Baltimore where he struck out eight and didn't walk a soul. In a game where the temperature is 45 degrees and a nine-mph wind is blowing in from right field, command is king. I’ll take the guy who knows where the ball is going over the guy who is currently leading the league in "escaping jams." The Pirates also hold a massive schematic advantage behind the dish with Henry Davis. His 87.7 mph throw velocity is the gold standard right now, and his 60% caught-stealing rate is a direct deterrent to Nico Hoerner and the Cubs' aggressive base-running. With Seiya Suzuki out of the lineup today, Chicago is missing a major middle-of-the-order threat, leaving a struggling Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ to do the heavy lifting against an Ashcraft curveball that has been lethal early on. The Pirates are playing with "Dads Trip" energy, sitting atop the division with an 8-5 record, and catching +122 on a pitcher with better peripherals and a catcher who neutralizes the opponent's best weapon is the kind of math I like. I’m riding with the Buccos to take the series today.

The pick & result

Published pick: Pirates ML +122
Published odds: +122
Result: Won
Final score: 4-3

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

The market has the Cubs priced as a decent favorite here, likely because Cabrera hasn't surrendered an earned run yet in 2026, but if you look under the hood, that zero is a miracle of sequencing. Cabrera walked five batters in less than six innings during his last outing against the Angels; he’s walking a tightrope without a net. Meanwhile, Braxton Ashcraft is coming off a masterclass against Baltimore where he struck out eight and didn't walk a soul. In a game where the temperature is 45 degrees and a nine-mph wind is blowing in from right field, command is king. I’ll take the guy who knows where the ball is going over the guy who is currently leading the league in "escaping jams."

The Pirates also hold a massive schematic advantage behind the dish with Henry Davis. His 87.7 mph throw velocity is the gold standard right now, and his 60% caught-stealing rate is a direct deterrent to Nico Hoerner and the Cubs' aggressive base-running. With Seiya Suzuki out of the lineup today, Chicago is missing a major middle-of-the-order threat, leaving a struggling Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ to do the heavy lifting against an Ashcraft curveball that has been lethal early on. The Pirates are playing with "Dads Trip" energy, sitting atop the division with an 8-5 record, and catching +122 on a pitcher with better peripherals and a catcher who neutralizes the opponent's best weapon is the kind of math I like. I’m riding with the Buccos to take the series today.

Injuries noted

Cubs: [KNOWN] Porter Hodge (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs placed Hodge (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday. (Mar 25 — 16d ago) [KNOWN] Julian Merryweather (Relief Pitcher) — Hamstring (Left): The Twins reassigned Merryweather (hamstring) to minor-league camp Monday. (Mar 22 — 20d ago) [NEW] Matthew Boyd (Starting Pitcher) — Biceps (Left): Boyd (biceps) will make a rehab start in the next week, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports. (Apr 10 — 1d ago) [NEW] Phil Maton (Relief Pitcher) — Knee (Right): Maton (0-1) allowed two runs on two hits while retiring two batters in relief to take the loss Tuesday against the Angels. He walked two and struck out one. (Apr 10 — 1d ago) [NEW] Cade Horton (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Horton will undergo season-ending surgery on his right UCL, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (Apr 7 — 3d ago) Pirates: [KNOWN] Jared Triolo (Third Baseman) — Knee (Right): The Pirates placed Triolo on the 10-day injured list Sunday due to a patellar tendon injury in his right knee, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports. (Apr 5 — 6d ago)

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored April 11, 2026 at 12:47 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
MARCELL OZUNAHITS UNDER 0.5
MLBPirates· +100
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0
Marcell Ozuna is currently locked in one of the worst slumps of his career, hitting just .081 over his last 10 games with 12 strikeouts and only three total hits. He has failed to record a hit in 70% of his last 10 games, and his power-heavy approach is ill-suited for today's conditions at Wrigley Field. With temperatures sitting at 45 degrees and a 9 mph wind blowing in from right field, fly balls are unlikely to carry, putting immense pressure on Ozuna's ability to find grass with line drives—something he hasn't done consistently all month. Furthermore, he faces Edward Cabrera, who has been untouchable since joining the Cubs, posting a 0.00 ERA and a career-best 13% swinging-strike rate. Cabrera's high-velocity arsenal and elite movement are the worst possible matchup for a hitter struggling with timing and contact like Ozuna.
Marcell Ozuna
Hits under 0.5
+100 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0
Pirates
Marcell Ozuna is currently locked in one of the worst slumps of his career, hitting just .081 over his last 10 games with 12 strikeouts and only three total hits. He has failed to record a hit in 70% of his last 10 games, and his power-heavy approach is ill-suited for today's conditions at Wrigley Field.
With temperatures sitting at 45 degrees and a 9 mph wind blowing in from right field, fly balls are unlikely to carry, putting immense pressure on Ozuna's ability to find grass with line drives—something he hasn't done consistently all month. Furthermore, he faces Edward Cabrera, who has been untouchable since joining the Cubs, posting a 0.00 ERA and a career-best 13% swinging-strike rate.
Cabrera's high-velocity arsenal and elite movement are the worst possible matchup for a hitter struggling with timing and contact like Ozuna.
GARY'S PICK
ALEX BREGMANH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
MLBCubs· -135
LOST · ACTUAL 3
Alex Bregman has yet to find his rhythm in Chicago, entering this game with a .179 batting average and just one RBI over his last 10 games. While his 3rd spot in the lineup provides volume, his efficiency has been severely lacking; he has stayed under this 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs line in 70% of his recent outings. The matchup against Braxton Ashcraft is particularly difficult because Ashcraft leans on a curveball that Bregman has struggled to track early in the 2026 season. With the Cubs' offense in a collective tailspin—having been shut out yesterday and hitting 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position—Bregman's opportunities to accumulate runs and RBIs are diminished. In a pitcher-friendly environment at Wrigley today, it is highly likely Bregman finishes with either one hit or zero, neither of which would be enough to clear this line without significant help from a struggling supporting cast.
Alex Bregman
H+R+RBI under 1.5
-135 · LOST · ACTUAL 3
Cubs
Alex Bregman has yet to find his rhythm in Chicago, entering this game with a .179 batting average and just one RBI over his last 10 games. While his 3rd spot in the lineup provides volume, his efficiency has been severely lacking; he has stayed under this 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs line in 70% of his recent outings.
The matchup against Braxton Ashcraft is particularly difficult because Ashcraft leans on a curveball that Bregman has struggled to track early in the 2026 season. With the Cubs' offense in a collective tailspin—having been shut out yesterday and hitting 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position—Bregman's opportunities to accumulate runs and RBIs are diminished.
In a pitcher-friendly environment at Wrigley today, it is highly likely Bregman finishes with either one hit or zero, neither of which would be enough to clear this line without significant help from a struggling supporting cast.

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