Diamondbacks at Phillies

The flags are stiff and the sun is out at Citizens Bank Park as the Diamondbacks look to secure a series win against a Phillies squad that is currently searching for any kind of stability. While the names on the jerseys might suggest Philadelphia is the home favorite, the reality of the pitching matchup and the environmental conditions tells a completely different story for this Saturday matinee.

Brandon Pfaadt is the definition of a pitcher whose surface numbers are lying to you. A 6.75 ERA would normally be a red flag, but his 2.93 xERA and nearly 60% ground-ball rate prove he has been remarkably unlucky through his first two starts. He is facing a Phillies lineup that just struck out 16 times yesterday and is now staring down a 14-mph wind blowing directly in from center field. For a ground-ball specialist like Pfaadt, those conditions are a dream; for a fly-ball heavy Phillies team that relies on the long ball from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, it is a significant headwind.

On the other side, Taijuan Walker is in a full-blown crisis. You cannot survive in the big leagues with a 2.28 WHIP and 17 hits allowed over 9.2 innings. Walker is essentially pitching for his job with Zack Wheeler's return looming, and that kind of pressure rarely helps a guy who can't find the strike zone or miss bats. Arizona is rolling right now with three straight wins, and getting the red-hot Corbin Carroll back in the lineup only widens the gap. Even without Gabriel Moreno behind the plate, the Diamondbacks have the superior starter, the better momentum, and a weather report that plays right into their hands. I’m taking the plus money on the better-performing team.