Diamondbacks at Phillies
O/U 8 · RL Phillies -1.5 · Citizens Bank Park
Diamondbacks ML+152
CONF 68%
WCashedFinal 5-4
The read
The lights are on at Citizens Bank Park as the Phillies try to claw their way out of a 20-inning scoreless tunnel against a Diamondbacks squad that has won seven of their last ten. While the betting market is screaming for regression on both starting pitchers, there are specific environmental and defensive factors here that make this a massive value spot for the underdog.
The narrative on Michael Soroka is that he’s a ticking time bomb because his 0.90 ERA is backed by a 5.74 xERA. Usually, I’d be the first one to fade that, but look at the conditions. You’ve got a 12-mph wind blowing straight in from right field. This neutralizes the primary weapon for Philadelphia’s left-handed power core of Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Brandon Marsh. Soroka is a ground-ball specialist (47.1%) and he’s backed by the number one defense in baseball, recording 15 Defensive Runs Saved already. When he does give up a fly ball that would normally be a home run in this hitter-friendly park, the wind is going to knock it down into the gloves of Arizona's elite outfielders.
On the other side, Jesús Luzardo is a premier talent, but he is running into a buzzsaw of a lineup configuration. Arizona is throwing eight hitters with the platoon advantage at him tonight, including four switch-hitters at the top and bottom of the order. Even without Corbin Carroll, the Diamondbacks are getting elite production from Ildemaro Vargas, who is hitting .458, and a veteran right-handed anchor in Nolan Arenado who punishes lefties. The Phillies’ defense is currently ranked dead last in efficiency, meaning Luzardo has zero margin for error. At +152, we’re getting a high-momentum team with a specific tactical and weather edge over an expensive favorite that is currently lost at the plate.
Injuries noted
Phillies: [KNOWN] Max Lazar (Relief Pitcher) — Oblique (Left): Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Tuesday that Lazar is dealing with a "mild" oblique injury and is returning to big-league camp to be evaluated, Jayson Stark of The Athletic reports. (Mar 25 — 16d ago) Diamondbacks: [NEW] Corbin Carroll (Center Fielder) — Hip (Not Specified): Carroll (hip) is not in the starting lineup for Friday's game against the Phillies. (Apr 10 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Jeff Brigham (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Cubs signed Brigham to a minor-league contract Thursday that includes an invitation to spring training, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports. (Mar 30 — 10d ago) [NEW] Jordan Lawlar (Shortstop) — Wrist (Right): The Diamondbacks transferred Lawlar (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday. (Apr 7 — 3d ago) [NEW] Carlos Santana (First Baseman) — Groin (Right): The Diamondbacks placed Santana on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a right adductor strain. (Apr 7 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Merrill Kelly (Starting Pitcher) — Back (Left): Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo announced Sunday that Kelly (back) will make one more rehab start before joining the big-league rotation, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports. (Apr 5 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Pavin Smith (Left Fielder) — Elbow (Left): Smith is not in the lineup for Monday's contest versus the Tigers. (Mar 30 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Andrew Saalfrank (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports. (Feb 11 — 58d ago)
Props on this game
2Trea TurnerOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+120
LActual 1
This pick is a direct play on the massive statistical regression looming for Diamondbacks starter Michael Soroka. Despite his elite 0.90 ERA, his underlying metrics are among the worst in the league, highlighted by a 5.74 xERA and a .374 xwOBA.
Soroka has been extremely fortunate with batted ball luck, and he now faces a Phillies lineup that has been shut out for 20 consecutive innings—a streak of futility that is due for a violent correction. Trea Turner is the ideal candidate to lead this charge from the leadoff spot.
He has maintained a respectable .275 average over his last 10 games and possesses the gap power and elite speed to turn routine singles into extra bases or utilize his high volume of plate appearances (batting 1st) to secure multiple hits. Against a pitcher who is consistently surrendering hard contact that hasn't yet found the grass, Turner is in a prime position to break the drought.
Ildemaro VargasOVER 0.5 Hits Hits-200
Not yet graded
With the Diamondbacks' superstar Corbin Carroll sidelined, Ildemaro Vargas has stepped into a vital role and is currently the hottest hitter in the Arizona lineup. Vargas is batting .364 over his last 10 games and has successfully recorded a hit in 80% of those contests.
While Phillies starter Jesús Luzardo possesses elite strikeout stuff, Vargas is a contact-oriented switch-hitter who is currently seeing the ball exceptionally well. His promotion to the #2 spot in the order ensures he will see maximum opportunities against both Luzardo and a Phillies bullpen that will likely be forced into action if Luzardo's high-K approach leads to an elevated pitch count.
In a Diamondbacks lineup that is struggling for consistency, Vargas's recent form makes him the most reliable bet to put the ball in play and find a hole.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store