Angels at Reds

We have a Friday night clash under the lights at Great American Ball Park as the Reds look to ride their young phenom to snap a short skid against an Angels squad struggling to make contact. As a lifelong Reds fan, I’ve seen plenty of high-hype arms come through this city, but Chase Burns feels different. He is currently sporting a ridiculous 13.1 K/9 through his first two starts, which is exactly the kind of profile that should terrify an Angels clubhouse. Los Angeles is currently striking out at a league-high 29.2% clip, and putting a high-velocity bat-misser like Burns in front of them is a recipe for a lot of empty swings. While Mike Trout is always a threat, his recent 2-for-29 slump suggests he hasn’t found his timing yet, and Burns isn't the guy you want to face when you’re searching for your rhythm.

On the other side, Jack Kochanowicz is playing a dangerous game in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors. His 1.55 WHIP and seven walks in just 9.2 innings of work are massive red flags when you’re walking into Cincinnati. You cannot give free passes in this building, especially not to a lineup featuring Elly De La Cruz and a red-hot rookie like Sal Stewart, who is currently on a four-game hitting streak with home runs in back-to-back games. Kochanowicz’s xERA of 5.11 tells me he’s been a bit lucky to even have a 4.66 ERA, and I expect the Reds' bats to expose those control issues early. We’ve seen this story before; the Reds have dominated this matchup historically, winning nine of the last ten meetings, and I don't see that trend breaking tonight.

While there are some concerns about the Reds' bullpen depth and Tyler Stephenson’s struggles behind the plate to control the running game, those factors only matter if the Angels can get on base. With the way Burns is dealing, I’m not sure they’ll have enough traffic to exploit those vulnerabilities. The Angels' defense has also been shaky with ten errors already this season, which is a nightmare when you have a contact-oriented pitcher like Kochanowicz on the mound. I’m laying the price with the home team here because the pitching mismatch is just too wide to ignore. Between Burns’ electric stuff and the Angels' inability to put the ball in play, the Reds are in a prime position to start this series with a statement win.