Astros at Rockies
O/U 11 · RL Astros -1.5 · Coors Field
Astros ML-142
CONF 72%
LLostFinal 1-5
The read
We’ve got a real afternoon shootout brewing at Coors Field where the 72-degree heat and a 14-mph crosswind are practically begging for a high-scoring affair. Both of these starters, Cristian Javier and Michael Lorenzen, are dragging double-digit ERAs into today’s contest, but when you peel back the curtain, one of these situations is significantly more dangerous than the other.
The problem for Colorado is Michael Lorenzen's profile. He’s allowed a staggering 19 hits in just 7.1 innings of work this season—that’s nearly three hits for every inning he’s managed to survive. In the thin air of Denver, that volume of contact is a death sentence against a Houston lineup that is currently averaging 6.5 runs per game. While Cristian Javier has struggled with his command (9 walks in his last two starts), his underlying xERA of 6.95 indicates he’s been far more competitive than his 12.96 actual ERA suggests. He still has the strikeout potential to limit damage, whereas Lorenzen’s 9.79 xERA shows he’s simply getting squared up by everyone he faces.
Houston is walking into this game with a lineup built specifically to dismantle this Rockies staff. Christian Walker has historically feasted on Colorado pitching, and with Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez both carrying an OPS over 1.000, there are zero "off" innings for Lorenzen to find his footing. I know the Astros (6-6) have lost three straight and the Rockies (5-6) have won three in a row, but in baseball, momentum often stops at the edge of the pitcher's mound. The talent gap between these two offenses and the significant edge in underlying pitching metrics for Javier make the Astros the right play, even with their recent road struggles. The Rockies' bullpen has been solid, but they’ll likely be asked to cover five or six innings today, and eventually, that Houston firepower is going to break through.
Injuries noted
Rockies: [NEW] Jose Quintana (Starting Pitcher) — Hamstring (Right): Quintana (hamstring) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports. (Apr 5 — 2d ago) [NEW] Tyler Freeman (Center Fielder) — Back (Not Specified): Freeman was scratched from the lineup for Sunday's game against the Phillies due to lower-back tightness. (Apr 5 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Kris Bryant (Right Fielder) — Back (Not Specified): Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports. (Feb 17 — 50d ago) Astros: [KNOWN] Bennett Sousa (Relief Pitcher) — Oblique (Left): Sousa (oblique) will throw a live batting practice session next week, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports. (Apr 1 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Zach Dezenzo (First Baseman) — Elbow (Right): Astros manager Joe Espada said Sunday that Dezenzo won't be part of the Opening Day roster and will remain at extended spring training to rehab his right elbow injury, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. (Mar 25 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Grae Kessinger (Third Baseman) — Hamstring (Left): Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports. (Mar 1 — 38d ago) [KNOWN] Brendan Rodgers (Second Baseman) — Shoulder (Right): Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports. (Mar 30 — 9d ago) [NEW] Hunter Brown (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Brown has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 right shoulder strain and will be shut down from throwing "for a few weeks." (Apr 7 — 0d ago) [NEW] Cody Bolton (Relief Pitcher) — Back (Not Specified): Bolton is being sent for precautionary imaging after he was struck by a comebacker during Monday's start against the Rockies, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. He didn't factor into the decision after allowing two runs on three hits and two walks while striking out five over 4.1 innings. (Apr 6 — 1d ago)
About this analysis
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- Board stored April 8, 2026 at 11:13 AM ET.
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