Marlins at Yankees

Sunday afternoon in the Bronx, and the Yankees are looking to put the finishing touches on a perfect home-opening weekend with their new ace Max Fried on the mound. When you look at this matchup, the starting pitching disparity is as wide as the Hudson River. Fried has been untouchable through his first 13.1 innings of the season, yielding zero runs and maintaining a 0.53 WHIP. He faces a Marlins lineup that leans heavily on right-handed bats, which is exactly what Fried’s 54% career groundball rate is designed to neutralize. While Miami has some bats like Xavier Edwards and Liam Hicks producing, they’re going to be hitting into the teeth of an elite Yankees infield defense that has committed just three errors all season.

On the other side, Chris Paddack is walking into a buzzsaw. He’s coming off a nightmare debut where he surrendered eight runs and three homers to the White Sox, and now he’s pitching in a park built for left-handed power. The Yankees are starting six left-handed hitters today, including the red-hot Ben Rice, who is currently carrying a 1.244 OPS. Paddack is a fly-ball pitcher by trade, and in Yankee Stadium with the wind blowing out to center field at 13 mph, that is a recipe for disaster. The Yankees have already hung 17 runs on Miami pitching in the first two games of this series, and there is no reason to think they slow down against a pitcher struggling with his command and velocity.

There is also a massive hidden edge behind the plate. Miami’s Liam Hicks is swinging a hot bat, but he has been a turnstile defensively, allowing nine stolen bases on nine attempts so far this season. The Yankees already exploited this in the series opener, and aggressive runners like Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jose Caballero will continue to take the free base. Even with the Yankees' back-end bullpen arms like David Bednar potentially limited after yesterday’s shootout, Fried’s efficiency and the projected run support against Paddack should make this a comfortable afternoon for the home crowd. I’m laying the runs with the hotter team and the superior arm.