Brewers at Royals

The tarps are off and the sun is peeking through at Kauffman Stadium for this opening leg of a Saturday doubleheader, where a stiff 14-mile-per-hour wind is already gusting toward the right-field fountains. While the weather might favor the left-handed power in both dugouts, this game will be decided by which team can handle the pressure of a disrupted rotation and a taxed bullpen.

The Brewers are playing a different brand of baseball right now, leading the majors with 45 runs and 15 stolen bases through their first six games. That relentless speed is a massive problem for Luinder Avila, a young prospect being thrust into a spot start for the ill Michael Wacha. Milwaukee’s ability to manufacture runs—evidenced by Brice Turang’s scorching .409 start—puts immense stress on a pitcher making his season debut. Even without Andrew Vaughn and Jackson Chourio in the middle of the order, the Brewers have shown they can pivot to a small-ball approach that forces mistakes, and their perfect defensive record so far (0 errors) ensures they won't give the Royals any free passes.

On the mound, Chad Patrick has a flyball tendency that usually screams danger with the wind blowing out, but he is backed by a Milwaukee bullpen that is simply on another level. The Royals are entering this series with a severely compromised relief unit; losing both closer Carlos Estévez and high-leverage arm James McArthur to the IL in the last 48 hours is a devastating blow. In a doubleheader where management has to play the long game with their arms, the Brewers have the depth to bridge the gap if Patrick runs into trouble. Milwaukee’s relief corps posted a dominant 12.7 K/9 last season, and that ability to miss bats in high-leverage spots is exactly what you need when the wind is turning routine flyballs into home run threats. I'm riding with the hotter team and the deeper bullpen.