Braves at Diamondbacks
O/U 9.5 · RL Diamondbacks -1.5 · Chase Field
Braves ML-104
CONF 72%
LLostFinal 1-2
The read
The desert heat is rising at Chase Field as the Braves look to secure a series win against a Diamondbacks squad searching for any sign of life. Atlanta has absolutely bullied Arizona through the first two games of this set, outscoring them 19-2, and while the oddsmakers are leaning on a "revenge" narrative for the pitching matchup, I’m looking at the raw reality of these two rosters right now.
I’m specifically focused on the fresh blow to Arizona’s lineup with Jordan Lawlar hitting the IL just yesterday. This Diamondbacks offense was already struggling—manufacturing only two runs through eighteen innings in this series—and losing a bat of his caliber to a wrist fracture is a massive variable that the market might not be fully accounting for. When a team is in a slide this deep, losing a primary catalyst creates a void that the rest of a struggling lineup, currently hitting a collective .209 from last season's baseline, isn't equipped to fill.
While Michael Soroka was dominant in his debut with ten strikeouts, I’m looking at the bullpen stability behind him. Paul Sewald getting tagged for back-to-back home runs on Friday night is a glaring red flag for Arizona's late-inning reliability. On the flip side, the Braves are playing with a league-best +29 run differential and a relief unit that currently boasts a 1.75 ERA. Even if Bryce Elder is a contact-heavy pitcher who can be risky in a hitter-friendly park, he is backed by an offense featuring Matt Olson and rookie standout Drake Baldwin, who are consistently finding ways to clear the fences. In a near-even moneyline spot, I’m riding with the team that has the deeper lineup, the superior bullpen, and all the momentum in the building.
Injuries noted
Diamondbacks: [NEW] Merrill Kelly (Starting Pitcher) — Ribs (Left): Kelly allowed two hits and two walks while striking out two over five scoreless innings for Triple-A Reno on Friday. (Apr 4 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Nabil Crismatt (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Crismatt will undergo surgery to repair a torn UCL in his right elbow, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports. (Feb 13 — 49d ago) [NEW] Jordan Lawlar (Shortstop) — Wrist (Right): Lawlar was diagnosed with a fracture in his right wrist Friday and will be sidelined 6-to-8 weeks, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports. (Apr 3 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Pavin Smith (Left Fielder) — Elbow (Left): Smith is not in the lineup for Monday's contest versus the Tigers. (Mar 30 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Andrew Saalfrank (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports. (Feb 11 — 51d ago) [KNOWN] Tommy Henry (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday. (Dec 3 — 121d ago) [KNOWN] Jeff Brigham (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Cubs signed Brigham to a minor-league contract Thursday that includes an invitation to spring training, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports. (Mar 30 — 4d ago) Braves: [NEW] Chris Sale (Starting Pitcher) — Illness: Sale (illness) may not be in attendance for Monday night's contest against the Diamondbacks, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. (Apr 2 — 1d ago) [NEW] Spencer Strider (Starting Pitcher) — Oblique (Left): Strider (oblique) will throw a bullpen session in Phoenix on Friday, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. (Apr 2 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Joey Wentz (Relief Pitcher) — Knee (Right): Atlanta placed Wentz on the 60-day injured list Tuesday with a right ACL tear. (Mar 24 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Spencer Schwellenbach (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Atlanta announced that Schwellenbach underwent a procedure Wednesday to remove bone spurs from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports. (Feb 18 — 44d ago)
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store