MLB · Thu, Mar 26 · 4:15 PM

Rays at Cardinals

O/U 7.5 · RL Rays -1.5 · Busch Stadium

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rays· +106

Opening Day at Busch Stadium brings the dawn of a new era for St. Louis as they host the Tampa Bay Rays in a fascinating interleague clash. While the market is leaning toward the established track record of Tampa Bay, the starting pitching trajectories tell a remarkably different story for this specific afternoon. Matthew Liberatore gets the Opening Day nod against the organization that drafted him, and he enters the regular season in absolute peak form. Liberatore showcased a tangible velocity uptick this spring—touching 97 mph—and posted a brilliant 1.80 ERA with a 19:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 15 innings, culminating in five shutout frames during his final tune-up. On the other side, Drew Rasmussen's pristine 2025 surface numbers, including his 2.76 ERA, are masking some immediate red flags. He limped out of his final Grapefruit League start, surrendering 11 hits and seven earned runs over 5.2 innings while sitting 1-2 mph below his usual velocity. To compound matters for Tampa Bay, they suffered a brutal string of fresh injuries over the last 48 hours, losing both Gavin Lux and defensive anchor Taylor Walls to the injured list. That forces rookie Carson Williams into an immediate, high-pressure MLB debut at shortstop. Backing a heavy ground-ball pitcher like Rasmussen when his middle infield just took a massive hit and his velocity is wavering is a dangerous proposition. St. Louis has fully committed to a youth movement under Chaim Bloom, and the offensive energy is palpable. Top prospect JJ Wetherholt earned the leadoff spot after posting a .405 on-base percentage in high-leverage spring situations, and the Cardinals closed camp on a five-game winning streak while Tampa Bay struggled with a negative run differential. With the wind projected to blow out to left field today, any mistake from a diminished Rasmussen could be costly against left-handed power threats like Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman. Catching the sharper starting pitcher and a hungry, fast-paced home team at plus money is exactly the kind of high-variance Opening Day spot you want to attack. Take the Cardinals.

On the other side, Drew Rasmussen's pristine 2025 surface numbers, including his 2.76 ERA, are masking some immediate red flags. He limped out of his final Grapefruit League start, surrendering 11 hits and seven earned runs over 5.2 innings while sitting 1-2 mph below his usual velocity. To compound matters for Tampa Bay, they suffered a brutal string of fresh injuries over the last 48 hours, losing both Gavin Lux and defensive anchor Taylor Walls to the injured list. That forces rookie Carson Williams into an immediate, high-pressure MLB debut at shortstop. Backing a heavy ground-ball pitcher like Rasmussen when his middle infield just took a massive hit and his velocity is wavering is a dangerous proposition.

St. Louis has fully committed to a youth movement under Chaim Bloom, and the offensive energy is palpable. Top prospect JJ Wetherholt earned the leadoff spot after posting a .405 on-base percentage in high-leverage spring situations, and the Cardinals closed camp on a five-game winning streak while Tampa Bay struggled with a negative run differential. With the wind projected to blow out to left field today, any mistake from a diminished Rasmussen could be costly against left-handed power threats like Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman. Catching the sharper starting pitcher and a hungry, fast-paced home team at plus money is exactly the kind of high-variance Opening Day spot you want to attack. Take the Cardinals.

The pick & result

Published pick: Cardinals ML +106
Published odds: +106
Result: Won
Final score: 7-9

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Rays: [NEW] Ryan Pepiot (Starting Pitcher) — Hip (Right): Pepiot (hip) is set to resume a throwing program this weekend, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports. (Mar 25 — 0d ago) [NEW] Gavin Lux (Second Baseman) — Shoulder (Right): The Rays placed Lux on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a right shoulder impingement. (Mar 25 — 1d ago) [NEW] Taylor Walls (Shortstop) — Oblique (Right): Walls received a cortisone injection in his right oblique and is expected to be sideline at least 3-to-4 weeks, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports. (Mar 25 — 1d ago) [NEW] Nick Martinez (Relief Pitcher) — Hamstring: Martinez finished Grapefruit League play with a 14.49 ERA and 7:6 K:BB over 13.2 innings. (Mar 24 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Logan Driscoll (Catcher) — Ankle (Right): The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports. (Feb 18 — 35d ago) [KNOWN] Manuel Rodriguez (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Rodriguez will have right elbow surgery Aug. 8 to address a flexor tendon repair, and his UCL will be evaluated during the surgery to determine if any additional procedures are needed, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. (Feb 10 — 43d ago)

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored March 26, 2026 at 11:35 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, betmgm, fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, caesars.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
YANDY DIAZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBRays· -109
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 3
Yandy Diaz is a renowned 'lefty-killer' whose power profile shifts significantly in his favor when facing southpaws. In 2025, he posted a massive .557 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers, nearly 100 points higher than his mark against righties. Facing Matthew Liberatore, who struggled with a 1.31 WHIP last season, Diaz is in a prime position to exploit the matchup. As the leadoff hitter, Diaz is guaranteed the most plate appearances in the game, providing him multiple opportunities to clear the 1.5 total bases mark via either a multi-hit performance or his high-frequency extra-base output against lefties. While Liberatore showed increased velocity in spring training, Diaz's elite contact skills and discipline make him a high-floor candidate for Opening Day production.
Yandy Diaz
Total Bases over 1.5
-109 · CASHED · ACTUAL 3
Rays
Yandy Diaz is a renowned 'lefty-killer' whose power profile shifts significantly in his favor when facing southpaws. In 2025, he posted a massive .557 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers, nearly 100 points higher than his mark against righties.
Facing Matthew Liberatore, who struggled with a 1.31 WHIP last season, Diaz is in a prime position to exploit the matchup. As the leadoff hitter, Diaz is guaranteed the most plate appearances in the game, providing him multiple opportunities to clear the 1.5 total bases mark via either a multi-hit performance or his high-frequency extra-base output against lefties.
While Liberatore showed increased velocity in spring training, Diaz's elite contact skills and discipline make him a high-floor candidate for Opening Day production.
GARY'S PICK
ALEC BURLESONH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
MLBCardinals· -106
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 7
Alec Burleson is positioned at the heart of the Cardinals' order, batting third behind high-OBP youngsters like JJ Wetherholt. This placement maximizes his chances for both RBI and Run production. While Rays starter Drew Rasmussen was highly efficient in 2025 (2.76 ERA), his spring performance was rocky, evidenced by a 5.06 FIP and a 5.00+ ERA in Grapefruit League play. Burleson, a left-handed hitter, holds the platoon advantage against Rasmussen and is a high-contact hitter who puts the ball in play consistently. In a game with a total of 8.0, the Cardinals' middle-of-the-order bats should find opportunities to contribute. Achieving a hit and just one other contribution (a run scored or an RBI) clears this 1.5 line, a high-probability outcome for a number three hitter in a neutral park environment.
Alec Burleson
H+R+RBI over 1.5
-106 · CASHED · ACTUAL 7
Cardinals
Alec Burleson is positioned at the heart of the Cardinals' order, batting third behind high-OBP youngsters like JJ Wetherholt. This placement maximizes his chances for both RBI and Run production.
While Rays starter Drew Rasmussen was highly efficient in 2025 (2.76 ERA), his spring performance was rocky, evidenced by a 5.06 FIP and a 5.00+ ERA in Grapefruit League play. Burleson, a left-handed hitter, holds the platoon advantage against Rasmussen and is a high-contact hitter who puts the ball in play consistently.
In a game with a total of 8.0, the Cardinals' middle-of-the-order bats should find opportunities to contribute. Achieving a hit and just one other contribution (a run scored or an RBI) clears this 1.5 line, a high-probability outcome for a number three hitter in a neutral park environment.

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