Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves

I’m grabbing Washington +1.5 because Andrew Alvarez owns a 2.84 ERA and has held hitters to a .194 average, which travels in any park if you’ve got the guts to ride with me. Bryce Elder brings a 5.36 ERA, and his 1.42 WHIP means Atlanta will be pitching with traffic that a speed-first catalyst like CJ Abrams can exploit. Washington still gets steady contact from Daylen Lile at .290, so they don’t need a barrage to stay inside a run. The risk is Alvarez’s sample is just 19 innings, but Elder’s .273 opponent average gives the Nats enough cushion to cover even if the young arm bends a little.