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2026-07-03

The stored Gary board for Fri, Jul 3. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

10
WC2:00 PM

Egypt @ Australia

Arlington’s AT&T Stadium plays host to a high-stakes Round of 32 clash as an undefeated Egyptian squad squares off against a defensively stout but offensively stagnant Australian side. The load-bearing factor for this side is the massive gulf in attacking efficiency and chance creation between these two nations. Egypt enters this knockout stage scoring 1.67 goals per match on 11.17 shots, consistently outperforming their 1.26 xG per match through clinical finishing. Australia, conversely, has been completely toothless in possession, averaging a meager 0.69 xG and 0.67 goals per match while failing to score a single goal in their last two outings. Without the ability to threaten consistently in the final third, Australia will struggle to exploit Egypt's defensive adjustments, even with key defensive starters out for the Pharaohs. The strongest argument against Egypt is their defensive vulnerability, characterized by a 1.52 xGA per match and the fresh absences of left-back Ahmed Fatouh and suspended midfielder Mohanad Lasheen. However, Australia's low-volume offense, which averages just 7.6 shots per match (with only 2.8 on target), lacks the creative weapons to consistently punish these defensive gaps. With Egypt's captain Mohamed Salah cleared to return and bolster an attack that has already seen strong contributions from Mostafa Zico and Trézéguet, the Pharaohs possess too many offensive dimensions for Australia's back three to handle over 90 minutes. At +140, the market is offering excellent plus-money value on the superior, undefeated side. Egypt's ability to maintain 50.33% possession and pass at an 85% clip will allow them to control the tempo, tire out Australia's defense, and eventually find the decisive breakthrough. Trust the Pharaohs to secure the win in normal time.

Egypt ML+140
CONF
72%
WC2:00 PM

Egypt @ Australia

Arlington’s AT&T Stadium plays host to a high-stakes Round of 32 clash as an undefeated Egyptian squad squares off against a defensively stout but offensively stagnant Australian side. The key factor driving this total is the combination of Egypt's high-efficiency offense and their highly vulnerable defensive state. Every single one of Egypt's tournament matches has seen at least two goals, as they average 1.67 goals scored while conceding 1.0. With left-back Ahmed Fatouh out with a hamstring injury and defensive midfielder Mohanad Lasheen suspended, Egypt's defensive structure—which already allowed a high 1.52 xGA per match during the group stage—is set to be even more exposed. This defensive instability practically guarantees that Australia will have their best opportunities of the tournament to break their 180-minute scoring drought. The counter-argument here is Australia's low-scoring trend, having just come off a 0-0 draw with Paraguay and averaging only 0.67 goals per match. But Australia's defense, which allowed only 0.67 goals per game in the group stage, was breached twice by a quality USA attack. Egypt's efficient offense, averaging 11.17 shots per match, is more than capable of replicating that success, especially with Mohamed Salah back in the fold. With the line set at an extremely low 1.5 goals, the price of -185 on the Over is well justified. Any scoreline with multiple goals clears this bar. Given Egypt's defensive absences and their potent attacking options like Mostafa Zico and Trézéguet, expect an open enough game to produce at least two goals in regulation.

Over 1.5-185
CONF
85%
MLB4:05 PM

Cardinals @ Cubs

It is a muggy, overcast afternoon at Wrigley Field where the flags are rippling straight out to left-center at 10 mph and a storm is brewing on the horizon. This classic, high-humidity summer day in Chicago sets up a wild National League Central clash, and at a price of +108, I am taking my stand with the road-underdog St. Louis Cardinals. The market is overpaying for the Cubs' shiny 9-1 run over their last 10 games, a number that looks formidable on the surface but is built on a fragile foundation. While Chicago has been scoring at an incredible clip, they are sending David Peterson to the mound today, a pitcher who has been hammered to the tune of a 7.15 ERA at Wrigley Field this season and has failed to reach the 6th inning in any of his last 5 starts. The Cardinals' lineup is mathematically optimized to dismantle Peterson, who allows a massive .300 AVG to right-handed hitters. St. Louis features a righty-heavy order, highlighted by Nelson Velazquez and Jordan Walker, who boast superb marks of 1.101 OPS and .949 OPS against left-handed pitching, respectively. Now, the biggest argument against backing St. Louis is the Cubs' red-hot hitting, particularly Pete Crow-Armstrong's stellar 1.006 OPS at Wrigley and Michael Busch's perfect 4-for-4 career mark with 2 home runs against Cardinals starter Andre Pallante. However, Pallante is in peak form, entering with a solid 9-5 record, a 3.83 ERA, and a 3.16 ERA over his last 5 starts. His high-usage slider and excellent ground-ball tendencies (1.57 GO/AO) should keep the ball down even with the wind blowing out, mitigating the threat of Wrigley's hitter-friendly conditions. Where this matchup completely breaks in St. Louis's favor is the bullpen. The Cubs are navigating a full-blown personnel crisis, with key relievers Hoby Milner and Ethan Roberts newly landing on the injured list, leaving Chicago's late-inning options severely depleted. This injury pile-up is a catastrophic liability today because of the weather. With a 62% chance of rain threatening a mid-game delay, there is a very high probability that both starting pitchers are forced into an early exit. Once this game becomes a battle of the bullpens, St. Louis has a massive structural advantage with a healthy, rested relief core featuring closer Riley O'Brien and his 21 saves. Trust the starting pitching consistency and the vastly superior bullpen of the Cardinals to capture the value at +108.

Cardinals ML+108
CONF
72%
WC9:30 PM

Ghana @ Colombia

Under the bright lights of Arrowhead Stadium, Colombia and Ghana prepare to clash in a high-stakes Round of 32 battle where any mistake could end their World Cup dreams. This match represents a massive stylistic gulf between Colombia's high-possession dominance and Ghana's gritty, low-block defensive posture. My read here is that the market is giving Ghana too much respect at +1.5 due to their defensive reputation, completely ignoring a crucial piece of fresh news: the loss of key defender Kojo Oppong Peprah to a knee injury sustained in their group finale on June 27. Peprah’s sudden absence severely compromises a Ghanaian backline that must now withstand a Colombian attack averaging an impressive 14.0 shots per match (5.17 on target) and 1.43 xG over their last six games. Colombia has the technical superiority in midfield—evidenced by their commanding possession advantage and exceptional passing accuracy over their last six games—to constantly recycle possession and wear down Ghana's defensive lines. The strongest counter-argument is that Ghana is notoriously difficult to break down, having held England to a 0-0 draw in the group stage. However, with Peprah sidelined and Antoine Semenyo's availability clouded by an ankle injury, Ghana's ability to execute their defensive low block over 90 minutes is heavily degraded. Colombia enters this match with a perfectly healthy squad and has shown they can punish weaker sides, scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game over their last ten international fixtures. Once Colombia finds the opening goal, Ghana will be forced to push forward, opening up space for Colombia to strike again and comfortably cover the -1.5 line.

Colombia -1.5+120
CONF
78%
WC9:30 PM

Ghana @ Colombia

Under the bright lights of Arrowhead Stadium, Colombia and Ghana prepare to clash in a high-stakes Round of 32 battle where any mistake could end their World Cup dreams. In a single-elimination tournament setting, tactical caution and risk-aversion always take center stage, and this matchup is perfectly set up to be a low-scoring defensive battle. My lead factor on this total is Ghana's established defensive style, which relies on a heavy low-block that concedes possession to choke out space in the defensive third. Ghana averages low possession and has tightened their defense significantly during the tournament, surrendering only 1.01 xGA over their last six matches and conceding 0.67 goals per match in the group stage. Even with Peprah out, Ghana’s primary tactical objective will be to sit deep and frustrate Colombia's attack. On the other side, Colombia boasts one of the tournament's most elite defensive units, allowing only 0.33 goals per match during the group stage and maintaining a stellar 0.82 xGA. The biggest argument against the Under is that Colombia's offense has explosive potential, as seen in their 3-1 win over Uzbekistan. But that was in the group stage; in a knockout scenario against a disciplined defense, Colombia is more likely to prioritize safety and exhibit patience, much like they did in their 0-0 draw with Portugal. With Ghana averaging a meager 6.67 shots and 2.17 shots on target per match, they lack the offensive firepower to threaten Colombia's backline. This has all the makings of a tactical chess match where a single goal could decide it, making Under 2.5 at -125 the sharpest bet on the board.

Under 2.5-125
CONF
84%
MLB9:38 PM

Red Sox @ Angels

An American League clash gets underway tonight under the Anaheim lights as the Los Angeles Angels host the Boston Red Sox in a three-game series opener. The market has the Angels priced as a short home favorite at -112, largely buoyed by starter Reid Detmers and his flashy run over his last three starts where he allowed only 1 earned run in 20.0 innings. However, backing the home side here means overpaying for a fragile number. While both starters have actually underperformed their elite expected metrics this season—Detmers with a 3.88 ERA versus a 3.04 xERA, and Jake Bennett with a 3.27 ERA versus a 2.65 xERA—tonight's matchup features a severe environmental mismatch. Detmers is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a 0.65 GO/AO ratio, a highly dangerous profile in Angel Stadium tonight with an 8 mph wind blowing straight out to center field. Bennett, conversely, is insulated against the wind with a ground-ball leaning 1.19 GO/AO. Beyond the pitching profiles, the Angels face a catastrophic defensive liability behind the plate. Due to injuries, the Angels are starting Anthony Seigler at catcher. Seigler has played 14 games at second base and one at third base in 2026, with zero significant major league catching experience. Boston's base-stealing threats, led by Jarren Duran with 12 stolen bases and Ceddanne Rafaela with 10, should have a green light all night. Symmetrically, Boston starts Carlos Narváez, an elite defensive catcher with a 26.9% caught-stealing rate. This is compounded by the team-wide defense, where Boston ranks 3rd in the majors with +47 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) compared to the Angels who rank near the bottom of the league at 28th with a -30 DRS. The strongest argument against the Red Sox is Detmers' spectacular recent form and the fact that Boston is playing without injured shortstop Marcelo Mayer. But the Red Sox have their premier right-handed bats, Willson Contreras (.939 OPS vs LHP) and Ceddanne Rafaela (.918 OPS vs LHP), active while appealing their suspensions. They both crush the slider—Detmers' primary secondary weapon—batting .333 and .310 against it, respectively. Meanwhile, the Angels' leadoff hitter Zach Neto has struggled significantly against changeups (.100 BA, .152 xwOBA), which is Bennett's primary pitch, holding a 34% whiff rate and a .121 opponent xwOBA. Combined with a fully rested, high-leverage Boston bullpen, the value is clearly on the visitors.

Red Sox ML-104
CONF
72%
MLB9:40 PM

Marlins @ Athletics

Under the blazing Sacramento sun at Sutter Health Park, the Miami Marlins and Oakland Athletics open up a high-temperature three-game interleague set that promises plenty of offensive fireworks. With the mercury hovering near 96 degrees and a steady 10 mph breeze blowing straight out to left field, we have a prime environment for run production—and a massive betting opportunity. The market has installed the Athletics as -142 favorites, heavily penalizing the Marlins for their taxing travel schedule following a Thursday doubleheader in Colorado, but this price completely ignores the catastrophic state of Oakland's roster. The core of this game lies in how the extreme weather interacts with starting pitcher Jack Perkins. Perkins is a fly-ball pitcher (0.63 GO/AO) who relies heavily on his outfield defense to bail him out. But his supporting cast is the absolute worst in the league at backing him up, ranking 30th in defensive efficiency and 29th in Outs Above Average. In this heat, fly balls carry, and against a deep Marlins lineup that boasts high-powered left-handed bats like Griffin Conine (1.027 OPS against righties) and Liam Hicks (.885 OPS), Perkins is in a highly volatile spot. Even though his 3.79 xERA suggests he has underperformed his 6.00 surface ERA, the market is overpaying for that regression potential in a ballpark and defensive environment that actively punishes his pitching style. The obvious concern here is Miami's travel-weary bullpen and Tyler Phillips' own looming regression (3.02 ERA vs. 4.42 xERA). But Oakland's lineup has been completely hollowed out by injuries, missing four of their top five hitters including the devastating season-ending loss of Brent Rooker. Outside of rookie sensation Nick Kurtz, this lineup is starting three players with under 70 at-bats this season and lacks the depth to consistently exploit Miami's tired arms. Furthermore, Perkins rarely goes deep into games, failing to complete six innings in five consecutive starts. Once this becomes a battle of the bullpens, I trust Miami’s professional hitters to scratch out runs against a highly volatile Oakland middle relief corps featuring Scott Barlow (6.48 ERA). Grab the Marlins at a valuable +120 plus-money price.

Marlins ML+120
CONF
68%
MLB9:45 PM

Brewers @ Diamondbacks

We have a high-stakes desert duel tonight at Chase Field as the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers roll into Phoenix to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks in front of a packed holiday crowd. On paper, the Brewers look like the easy play with their dominant lefty ace on the hill, but a deeper look at the matchup dynamics reveals a glaring value opportunity on the home underdog. While Milwaukee sends Kyle Harrison and his shiny 8-1 record to the mound, the sophomore LHP has been far more human on the road with a 4.20 ERA. He relies heavily on his 4-seam fastball at a 58.6% clip, which is a dangerous recipe against Arizona's prominent 'lefty-killers.' Ketel Marte has punished southpaws all season with a .955 OPS, and Corbin Carroll has completely erased the platoon disadvantage, batting .376 with a 1.072 OPS against left-handers. These stars thrive in the desert heat of Chase Field, where Carroll maintains a .964 home OPS and Marte stands at .862. If the Diamondbacks can jump on Harrison's fastball early, they will hand the ball to a deep, fully rested bullpen. Arizona's relief unit ranks 5th in MLB in Win Probability Added, and high-leverage arms Paul Sewald, Juan Morillo, and Brandyn Garcia are fresh, whereas Milwaukee's bullpen is running on fumes after using five relievers yesterday. The strongest argument against Arizona is their starting pitcher mismatch, as rookie Jose Cabrera is making only his third MLB start with a fragile 4.04 xERA against a red-hot Milwaukee offense boasting a .374 team xwOBA over their last three games. However, Cabrera showed great poise in his only home start, throwing 5.0 scoreless frames, and he is backed by a spectacular defense that ranks 6th in DRS with 25. With Milwaukee's bullpen heavily taxed and Harrison's road splits indicating a vulnerability, the Diamondbacks have the clear advantage in the critical late innings of this game. At +118, the value lies squarely with the home team to neutralize the pitching disparity and claim the series-opener.

Diamondbacks ML+118
CONF
68%
MLB10:10 PM

Padres @ Dodgers

A gorgeous Friday evening under the Dodger Stadium lights sets the stage for a high-stakes National League West clash as the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers host the struggling San Diego Padres. The starting pitching matchup represents a significant advantage for the home side, particularly when evaluating the price. The market is overpaying for Michael King's fragile 3.55 season ERA, which is masked by a 4.76 xERA. Over his last five starts, King has shown clear vulnerability, posting a 4.45 ERA and surrendering 10 walks over 28.1 innings of work. Conversely, Shohei Ohtani has been incredibly dominant on the mound, compiling an 8-2 record with a 1.58 ERA (2.69 xERA) and a 0.90 WHIP, including 86 strikeouts over 79.2 innings. Ohtani's platoon metrics against right-handed hitters are elite, limiting them to a .142 batting average and a .431 OPS, which directly neutralizes San Diego's right-handed star Fernando Tatis Jr., who is hitting .250 with 3 home runs and 7 RBIs in his last ten games. At the plate, the Dodgers possess a formidable lineup that averages 5.4 runs per game with a .267 batting average and .794 OPS, compared to the Padres' 4.0 runs per game, .225 average, and .677 OPS. Mookie Betts is in peak form, hitting .364 with 3 home runs and 10 RBIs over his last ten games, while Kyle Tucker is batting .308 with 1 home run and 6 RBIs in his last ten. This offensive depth stands in stark contrast to a Padres team currently on a six-game losing streak (4-6 in their last ten) and dealing with fresh injuries, including setup man Jason Adam going to the injured list with a shoulder strain and catcher Freddy Fermin sidelined with a head bruise. The strongest argument against backing the Dodgers is the steep -260 moneyline price, especially with rookie catcher Dalton Rushing starting behind the plate (29.2% caught-stealing rate, 7 caught stealing on 17 attempts) instead of the injured Will Smith. However, the Padres' starting catcher Rodolfo Duran (41.7% caught-stealing, 10 caught stealing on 14 attempts) is unlikely to offset the massive disparity on the mound, where King's sinker-heavy approach is highly vulnerable against Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy. Because laying -260 is too expensive, taking the Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 at -115) is the sharp play. The Dodgers are 27-14 at home, have outscored the Padres 32-19 in their last four meetings, and have the clear advantage to cover.

Dodgers spread-115
CONF
82%
MLB10:10 PM

Blue Jays @ Mariners

The holiday weekend kicks off with a high-stakes clash in the Pacific Northwest as the Toronto Blue Jays roll into T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners. Dylan Cease (4-4, 3.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 128 K, 83.1 IP) has been electric, limiting opponents to a tiny 4.5% barrel rate. While Cease has battled command issues recently by walking 15 batters over his last 26.0 IP, his strikeout-heavy profile protects him. He matches against Luis Castillo (3-6, 4.93 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 73 K, 76.2 IP), whose recent form is improved with a 3.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over his last five starts (26.1 IP, 6 walks). However, Castillo remains vulnerable to hard contact, allowing a 9.8% barrel rate and 43.2% hard-hit rate. He is particularly weak against lefties, yielding a .789 OPS and 7 of his 9 home runs to LHB. Toronto is starting five lefties to exploit this, including Nathan Lukes, who hits right-handers with a .343 AVG and .870 OPS. This pitching matchup shifts heavily in Toronto's favor when looking at defense and injuries. The Mariners placed star center fielder Julio Rodríguez (11 OAA) on the concussion IL today, disrupting an already weak defense that ranks bottom-five with -17 OAA and -6 DRS. Seattle is starting an experimental infield, moving J.P. Crawford to third base alongside rookies Cole Young and Colt Emerson. For a contact-prone pitcher like Castillo, playing with a shuffled defense is a major liability. Conversely, Toronto features an elite defense with +17 DRS and a +11 Fielding Run Value, supported by Andrés Giménez (+9 OAA) and Alejandro Kirk (7 framing runs), while welcoming back a healthy Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting second. While the Mariners’ offense has been hot recently—posting a .398 xwOBA, .579 xSLG, and 8.3% barrel rate compared to Toronto's .310 xwOBA, .414 xSLG, and 1.4% barrel rate—losing their franchise centerpiece is a crushing blow. The Blue Jays also enter with a fully rested relief corps; closer Louis Varland (17 SV, 0.98 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) and Tyler Rogers (18 HLD, 1.82 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) haven't pitched since June 29. Meanwhile, Seattle's bullpen is stretched thin after moving Cooper Criswell to the 60-day IL today, and closer Andrés Muñoz (16 SV, 4.60 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) has been volatile. The market's -134 price tag on Toronto is a bargain that fails to fully account for Seattle's fresh defensive chaos and Toronto’s rested bullpen.

Blue Jays ML-134
CONF
78%

Player props

15
WC · Egypt @ Australia

Omar Marmoush

While Omar Marmoush is a recognized name in the Egyptian squad, his individual shot volume in the current international cycle has been significantly lower than his club-level reputation suggests. Averaging just 0.75 shots per cap (3 shots in 4 games), he is often utilized in a role that prioritizes creation or spacing over pure volume.

UNDER 1.5 Shots-125
  • · Omar Marmoush: 3 total shots in 4 international caps (0.75 shots/game)
  • · Australia defense: 0.89 xGA per match and 1.1 GA/match in recent internationals
  • · Game environment: Low total (1.5) and Australia's 40% possession expectation
MLB · Cardinals @ Cubs

Seiya Suzuki

Suzuki has been the catalyst for a Cubs offense that is arguably the hottest in baseball, having cleared this 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs line in five consecutive games. Tonight he benefits from a afternoon start at Wrigley where temperatures are expected to reach 88 degrees with the wind gusting out to center field at 10 mph—conditions that amplify his .305 home batting average and .936 home OPS. While Andre Pallante is a ground-ball pitcher, Suzuki's recent contact quality has been elite, recording 13 hits in his last 43 at-bats (.302 AVG) with 11 RBIs in that span. Batting in the heart of a lineup that has averaged double-digit runs over their last three games provides a high floor for run-scoring and RBI opportunities.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-155
  • · L5 Hits + Runs + RBIs: 9, 3, 5, 3, 5 (5-for-5 clearing 1.5)
  • · Season Home AVG: .305 / Home OPS: .936
  • · Break-even Probability: 61% (-155)
MLB · Cardinals @ Cubs

Alec Burleson

Despite the hitter-friendly conditions at Wrigley tonight, Alec Burleson faces his most significant statistical hurdle: left-handed pitching. Burleson is hitting just .179 with a dismal .439 OPS against southpaws this season, a sharp contrast to his .314 mark against righties.

UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI+125
  • · AVG vs LHP: .179 / OPS vs LHP: .439
  • · Recent Form: Hitless in 4 of last 5 games (H L5: [1, 0, 0, 0, 0])
  • · Break-even Probability: 44% (+125)
WC · Ghana @ Colombia

Lawrence Ati Zigi

This prop is a direct play on the expected match script. Colombia averages 14 total shots and 5.17 shots on target per match, while Ghana is content to sit deep with only 35.33% possession.

OVER 4 Saves-130
  • · Colombia: 5.17 shots on target per match average
  • · Lawrence Ati Zigi: 4 saves line at -130 needs >57% probability
  • · Ghana: 35.33% average possession leads to high defensive volume
WC · Ghana @ Colombia

Luis Díaz

Luis Díaz is the undisputed focal point of the Colombian attack, accounting for 7 goals in 17 caps during this cycle. While the market prices this at +155 (39% implied), Díaz’s actual scoring rate of 41.1% already provides a statistical edge before accounting for the specific matchup.

OVER 1 Anytime Goal+155
  • · Luis Díaz: 7 goals in 17 international caps (41.1% scoring rate)
  • · Ghana: Conceding 1.5 goals per match over last 10 games
  • · Market break-even: +155 needs >39% probability
MLB · Red Sox @ Angels

Jarren Duran

Jarren Duran is a prime candidate for the under on hits tonight due to a combination of poor season-long performance and a difficult lefty-on-lefty matchup. Duran is hitting just .196 on the season and has been held hitless in three of his last five starts.

UNDER 0.5 Hits+110
  • · Season average of .196 over 312 ABs
  • · Hitless in 3 of his last 5 games
  • · Reid Detmers allows just a .545 OPS to left-handed hitters
MLB · Red Sox @ Angels

Jose Siri

Jose Siri is currently mired in a severe offensive slump, having recorded a hit, run, or RBI in only one of his last five appearances. He faces Jake Bennett, a lefty who has demonstrated exceptional command and a stingy 1.06 WHIP through his first six starts of 2026.

UNDER 0.5 H+R+RBI+110
  • · Hitless in 4 of his last 5 games (1-for-19 stretch)
  • · Zero runs and zero RBIs in 4 of his last 5 games
  • · Jake Bennett carries a 1.06 WHIP and elite control (9 BB in 33 IP)
MLB · Marlins @ Athletics

Tyler Phillips

Phillips is a prime candidate for regression, as evidenced by his 4.42 xERA standing significantly higher than his 3.02 surface ERA. His workload has trended downward recently; he has failed to clear this 16.5-out line (5.2 innings) in three consecutive starts, completing 4.0, 5.0, and 4.2 innings respectively.

UNDER 16.5 Pitcher Outs-140
  • · Tyler Phillips: xERA 4.42 vs Actual ERA 3.02 (1.40 deviation)
  • · Projected Temperature: 96°F at first pitch (Pitcher fatigue/ball flight)
  • · Recent Outs: [14, 15, 12] (Failed to reach 17 in three consecutive starts)
MLB · Marlins @ Athletics

Otto Lopez

Lopez has been the most consistent offensive producer for the Marlins, maintaining a .336 average on the season and a red-hot .366 over his last 10 games. He occupies the #3 spot in the order, ensuring he sees high-leverage plate appearances with runners on base.

OVER 2.5 H+R+RBI+121
  • · Otto Lopez: .366 AVG in last 10 games (15-for-41)
  • · Jack Perkins: .272 AVG / .796 OPS allowed to Right-Handed Batters
  • · Lineup Spot: Bats 3rd (high plate appearance volume)
MLB · Brewers @ Diamondbacks

Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte is currently the most productive hitter in the Arizona lineup, having recorded five home runs in his last ten games and entering tonight on a streak of five consecutive games with at least one RBI. He faces Milwaukee southpaw Kyle Harrison, which sets up a premier matchup for Marte; the switch-hitter owns a .955 OPS against lefties this season. Furthermore, Harrison is a fly-ball pitcher (0.65 GO/AO) who has been significantly more vulnerable to right-handed power, surrendering eight of his nine home runs this season to hitters from that side. Batting leadoff for Arizona, Marte will see maximum plate appearances to capitalize on this platoon advantage and his current power surge.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-147
  • · Last 10 Games: .341 AVG, 5 HR, 10 RBI, 1.341 OPS.
  • · Season vs LHP: .304 AVG, .955 OPS (Switch-hitter).
  • · Matchup: Kyle Harrison allows 8 of his 9 HR to right-handed hitters.
MLB · Brewers @ Diamondbacks

Christian Yelich

While Christian Yelich remains a fixture at the top of the Brewers' order, he is currently mired in his worst slump of the 2026 season. Over his last 10 games, he is hitting just .143 with zero home runs and high strikeout totals.

UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI+120
  • · Last 10 Games: .143 AVG (5-for-35), 0 HR, 2 RBI.
  • · Recent Form: 0 hits and 0 total bases in 4 of his last 5 games.
  • · Contact Quality: Yelich has recorded 0 total bases in 8 of his last 12 starts.
MLB · Padres @ Dodgers

Manny Machado

This is a fundamental mismatch between a hitter struggling against right-handed pitching and a pitcher producing historic numbers against right-handed batters. Manny Machado has hit just .175 against righties this season and holds a meager .192 average overall through 84 games.

UNDER 0.5 Hits+123
  • · Shohei Ohtani limiting RHBs to .142 AVG and .431 OPS
  • · Manny Machado .175 AVG against right-handed pitching this season
  • · Machado season-long .192 batting average over 84 games
MLB · Padres @ Dodgers

Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman is currently the most productive hitter in the Dodgers' lineup, maintaining a .447 average over his last 10 games. Tonight’s conditions at Dodger Stadium are a statistical 'perfect storm' for a left-handed hitter; the combination of 84-degree temperatures and an 8 mph wind blowing directly out to the right-field power alley significantly boosts the carry of his batted balls.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-123
  • · Freddie Freeman .447 AVG last 10 games (17-for-38)
  • · Michael King 4.76 xERA vs 3.55 actual ERA
  • · Wind 8 mph blowing OUT to RF in 84-degree heat
MLB · Blue Jays @ Mariners

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a strong candidate for the under on 1.5 total bases due to a combination of declining power and recent injury concerns.

UNDER 1.5 Total Bases-159
  • · Under 1.5 total bases in 7 of last 10 games (70%).
  • · Hitting just .214 over the last 10 games.
  • · Luis Castillo has allowed only 2 HR to 129 RHB faced this season.
MLB · Blue Jays @ Mariners

Kazuma Okamoto

Kazuma Okamoto is currently the hottest hitter in the Blue Jays' lineup, maintaining a .333 average and an elite 1.167 OPS over his last 10 games. He enters this matchup on a four-game hitting streak, including three multi-hit performances in that span.

OVER 0.5 Hits-160
  • · .333 AVG and 1.167 OPS over last 10 games.
  • · Luis Castillo allows a 43.2% hard-hit rate and 9.8% barrel rate.
  • · Castillo allows a .264 AVG to right-handed hitters.

Hub research

143

Graded results

25

Games

  • W

    Over 1.5 -185

    WC · 1-1

  • W

    Cardinals ML +108

    MLB · 17-1

  • L

    Colombia -1.5 +120

    WC · 0-1

  • W

    Under 2.5 -125

    WC · 0-1

  • W

    Red Sox ML -104

    MLB · 5-2

  • W

    Dodgers spread -115

    MLB · 3-4

  • W

    Blue Jays ML -134

    MLB · 2-0

  • W

    Marlins ML +120

    MLB · 12-5

  • L

    Diamondbacks ML +118

    MLB · 7-4

  • L

    Egypt ML +140

    WC · 1-1

Props

  • L

    Alec Burleson · under

    Cardinals @ Cubs · Actual 7

  • W

    Christian Yelich · under

    Brewers @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1

  • L

    Freddie Freeman · over

    Padres @ Dodgers · Actual 1

  • W

    Jarren Duran · under

    Red Sox @ Angels · Actual 0

  • L

    Jose Siri · under

    Red Sox @ Angels · Actual 3

  • W

    Kazuma Okamoto · over

    Blue Jays @ Mariners · Actual 1

  • W

    Ketel Marte · over

    Brewers @ Diamondbacks · Actual 3

  • W

    Lawrence Ati Zigi · over

    Ghana @ Colombia · Actual 7

  • L

    Luis Díaz · over

    Ghana @ Colombia · Actual 0

  • W

    Manny Machado · under

    Padres @ Dodgers · Actual 0

  • L

    Omar Marmoush · under

    Egypt @ Australia · Actual 2

  • W

    Otto Lopez · over

    Marlins @ Athletics · Actual 3

  • L

    Seiya Suzuki · over

    Cardinals @ Cubs · Actual 0

  • W

    Tyler Phillips · under

    Marlins @ Athletics · Actual 10

  • W

    Vladimir Guerrero Jr. · under

    Blue Jays @ Mariners · Actual 1