Sports Picks Archive — Friday, July 3, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

WC@ Australia· +140

Arlington’s AT&T Stadium plays host to a high-stakes Round of 32 clash as an undefeated Egyptian squad squares off against a defensively stout but offensively stagnant Australian side. The load-bearing factor for this side is the massive gulf in attacking efficiency and chance creation between these two nations. Egypt enters this knockout stage scoring 1.67 goals per match on 11.17 shots, consistently outperforming their 1.26 xG per match through clinical finishing. Australia, conversely, has been completely toothless in possession, averaging a meager 0.69 xG and 0.67 goals per match while failing to score a single goal in their last two outings. Without the ability to threaten consistently in the final third, Australia will struggle to exploit Egypt's defensive adjustments, even with key defensive starters out for the Pharaohs. The strongest argument against Egypt is their defensive vulnerability, characterized by a 1.52 xGA per match and the fresh absences of left-back Ahmed Fatouh and suspended midfielder Mohanad Lasheen. However, Australia's low-volume offense, which averages just 7.6 shots per match (with only 2.8 on target), lacks the creative weapons to consistently punish these defensive gaps. With Egypt's captain Mohamed Salah cleared to return and bolster an attack that has already seen strong contributions from Mostafa Zico and Trézéguet, the Pharaohs possess too many offensive dimensions for Australia's back three to handle over 90 minutes. At +140, the market is offering excellent plus-money value on the superior, undefeated side. Egypt's ability to maintain 50.33% possession and pass at an 85% clip will allow them to control the tempo, tire out Australia's defense, and eventually find the decisive breakthrough. Trust the Pharaohs to secure the win in normal time.

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GARY'S PICK

WCEgypt @ Australia· -185

Arlington’s AT&T Stadium plays host to a high-stakes Round of 32 clash as an undefeated Egyptian squad squares off against a defensively stout but offensively stagnant Australian side. The key factor driving this total is the combination of Egypt's high-efficiency offense and their highly vulnerable defensive state. Every single one of Egypt's tournament matches has seen at least two goals, as they average 1.67 goals scored while conceding 1.0. With left-back Ahmed Fatouh out with a hamstring injury and defensive midfielder Mohanad Lasheen suspended, Egypt's defensive structure—which already allowed a high 1.52 xGA per match during the group stage—is set to be even more exposed. This defensive instability practically guarantees that Australia will have their best opportunities of the tournament to break their 180-minute scoring drought. The counter-argument here is Australia's low-scoring trend, having just come off a 0-0 draw with Paraguay and averaging only 0.67 goals per match. But Australia's defense, which allowed only 0.67 goals per game in the group stage, was breached twice by a quality USA attack. Egypt's efficient offense, averaging 11.17 shots per match, is more than capable of replicating that success, especially with Mohamed Salah back in the fold. With the line set at an extremely low 1.5 goals, the price of -185 on the Over is well justified. Any scoreline with multiple goals clears this bar. Given Egypt's defensive absences and their potent attacking options like Mostafa Zico and Trézéguet, expect an open enough game to produce at least two goals in regulation.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cubs· +108

It is a muggy, overcast afternoon at Wrigley Field where the flags are rippling straight out to left-center at 10 mph and a storm is brewing on the horizon. This classic, high-humidity summer day in Chicago sets up a wild National League Central clash, and at a price of +108, I am taking my stand with the road-underdog St. Louis Cardinals. The market is overpaying for the Cubs' shiny 9-1 run over their last 10 games, a number that looks formidable on the surface but is built on a fragile foundation. While Chicago has been scoring at an incredible clip, they are sending David Peterson to the mound today, a pitcher who has been hammered to the tune of a 7.15 ERA at Wrigley Field this season and has failed to reach the 6th inning in any of his last 5 starts. The Cardinals' lineup is mathematically optimized to dismantle Peterson, who allows a massive .300 AVG to right-handed hitters. St. Louis features a righty-heavy order, highlighted by Nelson Velazquez and Jordan Walker, who boast superb marks of 1.101 OPS and .949 OPS against left-handed pitching, respectively. Now, the biggest argument against backing St. Louis is the Cubs' red-hot hitting, particularly Pete Crow-Armstrong's stellar 1.006 OPS at Wrigley and Michael Busch's perfect 4-for-4 career mark with 2 home runs against Cardinals starter Andre Pallante. However, Pallante is in peak form, entering with a solid 9-5 record, a 3.83 ERA, and a 3.16 ERA over his last 5 starts. His high-usage slider and excellent ground-ball tendencies (1.57 GO/AO) should keep the ball down even with the wind blowing out, mitigating the threat of Wrigley's hitter-friendly conditions. Where this matchup completely breaks in St. Louis's favor is the bullpen. The Cubs are navigating a full-blown personnel crisis, with key relievers Hoby Milner and Ethan Roberts newly landing on the injured list, leaving Chicago's late-inning options severely depleted. This injury pile-up is a catastrophic liability today because of the weather. With a 62% chance of rain threatening a mid-game delay, there is a very high probability that both starting pitchers are forced into an early exit. Once this game becomes a battle of the bullpens, St. Louis has a massive structural advantage with a healthy, rested relief core featuring closer Riley O'Brien and his 21 saves. Trust the starting pitching consistency and the vastly superior bullpen of the Cardinals to capture the value at +108.

The Cardinals' lineup is mathematically optimized to dismantle Peterson, who allows a massive .300 AVG to right-handed hitters. St. Louis features a righty-heavy order, highlighted by Nelson Velazquez and Jordan Walker, who boast superb marks of 1.101 OPS and .949 OPS against left-handed pitching, respectively. Now, the biggest argument against backing St. Louis is the Cubs' red-hot hitting, particularly Pete Crow-Armstrong's stellar 1.006 OPS at Wrigley and Michael Busch's perfect 4-for-4 career mark with 2 home runs against Cardinals starter Andre Pallante. However, Pallante is in peak form, entering with a solid 9-5 record, a 3.83 ERA, and a 3.16 ERA over his last 5 starts. His high-usage slider and excellent ground-ball tendencies (1.57 GO/AO) should keep the ball down even with the wind blowing out, mitigating the threat of Wrigley's hitter-friendly conditions.

Where this matchup completely breaks in St. Louis's favor is the bullpen. The Cubs are navigating a full-blown personnel crisis, with key relievers Hoby Milner and Ethan Roberts newly landing on the injured list, leaving Chicago's late-inning options severely depleted. This injury pile-up is a catastrophic liability today because of the weather. With a 62% chance of rain threatening a mid-game delay, there is a very high probability that both starting pitchers are forced into an early exit. Once this game becomes a battle of the bullpens, St. Louis has a massive structural advantage with a healthy, rested relief core featuring closer Riley O'Brien and his 21 saves. Trust the starting pitching consistency and the vastly superior bullpen of the Cardinals to capture the value at +108.

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GARY'S PICK

WCvs Ghana· +120

Under the bright lights of Arrowhead Stadium, Colombia and Ghana prepare to clash in a high-stakes Round of 32 battle where any mistake could end their World Cup dreams. This match represents a massive stylistic gulf between Colombia's high-possession dominance and Ghana's gritty, low-block defensive posture. My read here is that the market is giving Ghana too much respect at +1.5 due to their defensive reputation, completely ignoring a crucial piece of fresh news: the loss of key defender Kojo Oppong Peprah to a knee injury sustained in their group finale on June 27. Peprah’s sudden absence severely compromises a Ghanaian backline that must now withstand a Colombian attack averaging an impressive 14.0 shots per match (5.17 on target) and 1.43 xG over their last six games. Colombia has the technical superiority in midfield—evidenced by their commanding possession advantage and exceptional passing accuracy over their last six games—to constantly recycle possession and wear down Ghana's defensive lines. The strongest counter-argument is that Ghana is notoriously difficult to break down, having held England to a 0-0 draw in the group stage. However, with Peprah sidelined and Antoine Semenyo's availability clouded by an ankle injury, Ghana's ability to execute their defensive low block over 90 minutes is heavily degraded. Colombia enters this match with a perfectly healthy squad and has shown they can punish weaker sides, scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game over their last ten international fixtures. Once Colombia finds the opening goal, Ghana will be forced to push forward, opening up space for Colombia to strike again and comfortably cover the -1.5 line.

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GARY'S PICK

WCGhana @ Colombia· -125

Under the bright lights of Arrowhead Stadium, Colombia and Ghana prepare to clash in a high-stakes Round of 32 battle where any mistake could end their World Cup dreams. In a single-elimination tournament setting, tactical caution and risk-aversion always take center stage, and this matchup is perfectly set up to be a low-scoring defensive battle. My lead factor on this total is Ghana's established defensive style, which relies on a heavy low-block that concedes possession to choke out space in the defensive third. Ghana averages low possession and has tightened their defense significantly during the tournament, surrendering only 1.01 xGA over their last six matches and conceding 0.67 goals per match in the group stage. Even with Peprah out, Ghana’s primary tactical objective will be to sit deep and frustrate Colombia's attack. On the other side, Colombia boasts one of the tournament's most elite defensive units, allowing only 0.33 goals per match during the group stage and maintaining a stellar 0.82 xGA. The biggest argument against the Under is that Colombia's offense has explosive potential, as seen in their 3-1 win over Uzbekistan. But that was in the group stage; in a knockout scenario against a disciplined defense, Colombia is more likely to prioritize safety and exhibit patience, much like they did in their 0-0 draw with Portugal. With Ghana averaging a meager 6.67 shots and 2.17 shots on target per match, they lack the offensive firepower to threaten Colombia's backline. This has all the makings of a tactical chess match where a single goal could decide it, making Under 2.5 at -125 the sharpest bet on the board.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Angels· -104

An American League clash gets underway tonight under the Anaheim lights as the Los Angeles Angels host the Boston Red Sox in a three-game series opener. The market has the Angels priced as a short home favorite at -112, largely buoyed by starter Reid Detmers and his flashy run over his last three starts where he allowed only 1 earned run in 20.0 innings. However, backing the home side here means overpaying for a fragile number. While both starters have actually underperformed their elite expected metrics this season—Detmers with a 3.88 ERA versus a 3.04 xERA, and Jake Bennett with a 3.27 ERA versus a 2.65 xERA—tonight's matchup features a severe environmental mismatch. Detmers is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a 0.65 GO/AO ratio, a highly dangerous profile in Angel Stadium tonight with an 8 mph wind blowing straight out to center field. Bennett, conversely, is insulated against the wind with a ground-ball leaning 1.19 GO/AO. Beyond the pitching profiles, the Angels face a catastrophic defensive liability behind the plate. Due to injuries, the Angels are starting Anthony Seigler at catcher. Seigler has played 14 games at second base and one at third base in 2026, with zero significant major league catching experience. Boston's base-stealing threats, led by Jarren Duran with 12 stolen bases and Ceddanne Rafaela with 10, should have a green light all night. Symmetrically, Boston starts Carlos Narváez, an elite defensive catcher with a 26.9% caught-stealing rate. This is compounded by the team-wide defense, where Boston ranks 3rd in the majors with +47 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) compared to the Angels who rank near the bottom of the league at 28th with a -30 DRS. The strongest argument against the Red Sox is Detmers' spectacular recent form and the fact that Boston is playing without injured shortstop Marcelo Mayer. But the Red Sox have their premier right-handed bats, Willson Contreras (.939 OPS vs LHP) and Ceddanne Rafaela (.918 OPS vs LHP), active while appealing their suspensions. They both crush the slider—Detmers' primary secondary weapon—batting .333 and .310 against it, respectively. Meanwhile, the Angels' leadoff hitter Zach Neto has struggled significantly against changeups (.100 BA, .152 xwOBA), which is Bennett's primary pitch, holding a 34% whiff rate and a .121 opponent xwOBA. Combined with a fully rested, high-leverage Boston bullpen, the value is clearly on the visitors.

Beyond the pitching profiles, the Angels face a catastrophic defensive liability behind the plate. Due to injuries, the Angels are starting Anthony Seigler at catcher. Seigler has played 14 games at second base and one at third base in 2026, with zero significant major league catching experience. Boston's base-stealing threats, led by Jarren Duran with 12 stolen bases and Ceddanne Rafaela with 10, should have a green light all night. Symmetrically, Boston starts Carlos Narváez, an elite defensive catcher with a 26.9% caught-stealing rate. This is compounded by the team-wide defense, where Boston ranks 3rd in the majors with +47 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) compared to the Angels who rank near the bottom of the league at 28th with a -30 DRS.

The strongest argument against the Red Sox is Detmers' spectacular recent form and the fact that Boston is playing without injured shortstop Marcelo Mayer. But the Red Sox have their premier right-handed bats, Willson Contreras (.939 OPS vs LHP) and Ceddanne Rafaela (.918 OPS vs LHP), active while appealing their suspensions. They both crush the slider—Detmers' primary secondary weapon—batting .333 and .310 against it, respectively. Meanwhile, the Angels' leadoff hitter Zach Neto has struggled significantly against changeups (.100 BA, .152 xwOBA), which is Bennett's primary pitch, holding a 34% whiff rate and a .121 opponent xwOBA. Combined with a fully rested, high-leverage Boston bullpen, the value is clearly on the visitors.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Athletics· +120

Under the blazing Sacramento sun at Sutter Health Park, the Miami Marlins and Oakland Athletics open up a high-temperature three-game interleague set that promises plenty of offensive fireworks. With the mercury hovering near 96 degrees and a steady 10 mph breeze blowing straight out to left field, we have a prime environment for run production—and a massive betting opportunity. The market has installed the Athletics as -142 favorites, heavily penalizing the Marlins for their taxing travel schedule following a Thursday doubleheader in Colorado, but this price completely ignores the catastrophic state of Oakland's roster. The core of this game lies in how the extreme weather interacts with starting pitcher Jack Perkins. Perkins is a fly-ball pitcher (0.63 GO/AO) who relies heavily on his outfield defense to bail him out. But his supporting cast is the absolute worst in the league at backing him up, ranking 30th in defensive efficiency and 29th in Outs Above Average. In this heat, fly balls carry, and against a deep Marlins lineup that boasts high-powered left-handed bats like Griffin Conine (1.027 OPS against righties) and Liam Hicks (.885 OPS), Perkins is in a highly volatile spot. Even though his 3.79 xERA suggests he has underperformed his 6.00 surface ERA, the market is overpaying for that regression potential in a ballpark and defensive environment that actively punishes his pitching style. The obvious concern here is Miami's travel-weary bullpen and Tyler Phillips' own looming regression (3.02 ERA vs. 4.42 xERA). But Oakland's lineup has been completely hollowed out by injuries, missing four of their top five hitters including the devastating season-ending loss of Brent Rooker. Outside of rookie sensation Nick Kurtz, this lineup is starting three players with under 70 at-bats this season and lacks the depth to consistently exploit Miami's tired arms. Furthermore, Perkins rarely goes deep into games, failing to complete six innings in five consecutive starts. Once this becomes a battle of the bullpens, I trust Miami’s professional hitters to scratch out runs against a highly volatile Oakland middle relief corps featuring Scott Barlow (6.48 ERA). Grab the Marlins at a valuable +120 plus-money price.

The core of this game lies in how the extreme weather interacts with starting pitcher Jack Perkins. Perkins is a fly-ball pitcher (0.63 GO/AO) who relies heavily on his outfield defense to bail him out. But his supporting cast is the absolute worst in the league at backing him up, ranking 30th in defensive efficiency and 29th in Outs Above Average. In this heat, fly balls carry, and against a deep Marlins lineup that boasts high-powered left-handed bats like Griffin Conine (1.027 OPS against righties) and Liam Hicks (.885 OPS), Perkins is in a highly volatile spot. Even though his 3.79 xERA suggests he has underperformed his 6.00 surface ERA, the market is overpaying for that regression potential in a ballpark and defensive environment that actively punishes his pitching style.

The obvious concern here is Miami's travel-weary bullpen and Tyler Phillips' own looming regression (3.02 ERA vs. 4.42 xERA). But Oakland's lineup has been completely hollowed out by injuries, missing four of their top five hitters including the devastating season-ending loss of Brent Rooker. Outside of rookie sensation Nick Kurtz, this lineup is starting three players with under 70 at-bats this season and lacks the depth to consistently exploit Miami's tired arms. Furthermore, Perkins rarely goes deep into games, failing to complete six innings in five consecutive starts. Once this becomes a battle of the bullpens, I trust Miami’s professional hitters to scratch out runs against a highly volatile Oakland middle relief corps featuring Scott Barlow (6.48 ERA). Grab the Marlins at a valuable +120 plus-money price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Brewers· +118

We have a high-stakes desert duel tonight at Chase Field as the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers roll into Phoenix to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks in front of a packed holiday crowd. On paper, the Brewers look like the easy play with their dominant lefty ace on the hill, but a deeper look at the matchup dynamics reveals a glaring value opportunity on the home underdog. While Milwaukee sends Kyle Harrison and his shiny 8-1 record to the mound, the sophomore LHP has been far more human on the road with a 4.20 ERA. He relies heavily on his 4-seam fastball at a 58.6% clip, which is a dangerous recipe against Arizona's prominent 'lefty-killers.' Ketel Marte has punished southpaws all season with a .955 OPS, and Corbin Carroll has completely erased the platoon disadvantage, batting .376 with a 1.072 OPS against left-handers. These stars thrive in the desert heat of Chase Field, where Carroll maintains a .964 home OPS and Marte stands at .862. If the Diamondbacks can jump on Harrison's fastball early, they will hand the ball to a deep, fully rested bullpen. Arizona's relief unit ranks 5th in MLB in Win Probability Added, and high-leverage arms Paul Sewald, Juan Morillo, and Brandyn Garcia are fresh, whereas Milwaukee's bullpen is running on fumes after using five relievers yesterday. The strongest argument against Arizona is their starting pitcher mismatch, as rookie Jose Cabrera is making only his third MLB start with a fragile 4.04 xERA against a red-hot Milwaukee offense boasting a .374 team xwOBA over their last three games. However, Cabrera showed great poise in his only home start, throwing 5.0 scoreless frames, and he is backed by a spectacular defense that ranks 6th in DRS with 25. With Milwaukee's bullpen heavily taxed and Harrison's road splits indicating a vulnerability, the Diamondbacks have the clear advantage in the critical late innings of this game. At +118, the value lies squarely with the home team to neutralize the pitching disparity and claim the series-opener.

While Milwaukee sends Kyle Harrison and his shiny 8-1 record to the mound, the sophomore LHP has been far more human on the road with a 4.20 ERA. He relies heavily on his 4-seam fastball at a 58.6% clip, which is a dangerous recipe against Arizona's prominent 'lefty-killers.' Ketel Marte has punished southpaws all season with a .955 OPS, and Corbin Carroll has completely erased the platoon disadvantage, batting .376 with a 1.072 OPS against left-handers. These stars thrive in the desert heat of Chase Field, where Carroll maintains a .964 home OPS and Marte stands at .862. If the Diamondbacks can jump on Harrison's fastball early, they will hand the ball to a deep, fully rested bullpen. Arizona's relief unit ranks 5th in MLB in Win Probability Added, and high-leverage arms Paul Sewald, Juan Morillo, and Brandyn Garcia are fresh, whereas Milwaukee's bullpen is running on fumes after using five relievers yesterday.

The strongest argument against Arizona is their starting pitcher mismatch, as rookie Jose Cabrera is making only his third MLB start with a fragile 4.04 xERA against a red-hot Milwaukee offense boasting a .374 team xwOBA over their last three games. However, Cabrera showed great poise in his only home start, throwing 5.0 scoreless frames, and he is backed by a spectacular defense that ranks 6th in DRS with 25. With Milwaukee's bullpen heavily taxed and Harrison's road splits indicating a vulnerability, the Diamondbacks have the clear advantage in the critical late innings of this game. At +118, the value lies squarely with the home team to neutralize the pitching disparity and claim the series-opener.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Padres· -115

A gorgeous Friday evening under the Dodger Stadium lights sets the stage for a high-stakes National League West clash as the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers host the struggling San Diego Padres. The starting pitching matchup represents a significant advantage for the home side, particularly when evaluating the price. The market is overpaying for Michael King's fragile 3.55 season ERA, which is masked by a 4.76 xERA. Over his last five starts, King has shown clear vulnerability, posting a 4.45 ERA and surrendering 10 walks over 28.1 innings of work. Conversely, Shohei Ohtani has been incredibly dominant on the mound, compiling an 8-2 record with a 1.58 ERA (2.69 xERA) and a 0.90 WHIP, including 86 strikeouts over 79.2 innings. Ohtani's platoon metrics against right-handed hitters are elite, limiting them to a .142 batting average and a .431 OPS, which directly neutralizes San Diego's right-handed star Fernando Tatis Jr., who is hitting .250 with 3 home runs and 7 RBIs in his last ten games. At the plate, the Dodgers possess a formidable lineup that averages 5.4 runs per game with a .267 batting average and .794 OPS, compared to the Padres' 4.0 runs per game, .225 average, and .677 OPS. Mookie Betts is in peak form, hitting .364 with 3 home runs and 10 RBIs over his last ten games, while Kyle Tucker is batting .308 with 1 home run and 6 RBIs in his last ten. This offensive depth stands in stark contrast to a Padres team currently on a six-game losing streak (4-6 in their last ten) and dealing with fresh injuries, including setup man Jason Adam going to the injured list with a shoulder strain and catcher Freddy Fermin sidelined with a head bruise. The strongest argument against backing the Dodgers is the steep -260 moneyline price, especially with rookie catcher Dalton Rushing starting behind the plate (29.2% caught-stealing rate, 7 caught stealing on 17 attempts) instead of the injured Will Smith. However, the Padres' starting catcher Rodolfo Duran (41.7% caught-stealing, 10 caught stealing on 14 attempts) is unlikely to offset the massive disparity on the mound, where King's sinker-heavy approach is highly vulnerable against Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy. Because laying -260 is too expensive, taking the Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 at -115) is the sharp play. The Dodgers are 27-14 at home, have outscored the Padres 32-19 in their last four meetings, and have the clear advantage to cover.

A gorgeous Friday evening under the Dodger Stadium lights sets the stage for a high-stakes National League West clash as the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers host the struggling San Diego Padres.

The starting pitching matchup represents a significant advantage for the home side, particularly when evaluating the price. The market is overpaying for Michael King's fragile 3.55 season ERA, which is masked by a 4.76 xERA. Over his last five starts, King has shown clear vulnerability, posting a 4.45 ERA and surrendering 10 walks over 28.1 innings of work. Conversely, Shohei Ohtani has been incredibly dominant on the mound, compiling an 8-2 record with a 1.58 ERA (2.69 xERA) and a 0.90 WHIP, including 86 strikeouts over 79.2 innings. Ohtani's platoon metrics against right-handed hitters are elite, limiting them to a .142 batting average and a .431 OPS, which directly neutralizes San Diego's right-handed star Fernando Tatis Jr., who is hitting .250 with 3 home runs and 7 RBIs in his last ten games.

At the plate, the Dodgers possess a formidable lineup that averages 5.4 runs per game with a .267 batting average and .794 OPS, compared to the Padres' 4.0 runs per game, .225 average, and .677 OPS. Mookie Betts is in peak form, hitting .364 with 3 home runs and 10 RBIs over his last ten games, while Kyle Tucker is batting .308 with 1 home run and 6 RBIs in his last ten. This offensive depth stands in stark contrast to a Padres team currently on a six-game losing streak (4-6 in their last ten) and dealing with fresh injuries, including setup man Jason Adam going to the injured list with a shoulder strain and catcher Freddy Fermin sidelined with a head bruise.

The strongest argument against backing the Dodgers is the steep -260 moneyline price, especially with rookie catcher Dalton Rushing starting behind the plate (29.2% caught-stealing rate, 7 caught stealing on 17 attempts) instead of the injured Will Smith. However, the Padres' starting catcher Rodolfo Duran (41.7% caught-stealing, 10 caught stealing on 14 attempts) is unlikely to offset the massive disparity on the mound, where King's sinker-heavy approach is highly vulnerable against Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy. Because laying -260 is too expensive, taking the Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 at -115) is the sharp play. The Dodgers are 27-14 at home, have outscored the Padres 32-19 in their last four meetings, and have the clear advantage to cover.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mariners· -134

The holiday weekend kicks off with a high-stakes clash in the Pacific Northwest as the Toronto Blue Jays roll into T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners. Dylan Cease (4-4, 3.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 128 K, 83.1 IP) has been electric, limiting opponents to a tiny 4.5% barrel rate. While Cease has battled command issues recently by walking 15 batters over his last 26.0 IP, his strikeout-heavy profile protects him. He matches against Luis Castillo (3-6, 4.93 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 73 K, 76.2 IP), whose recent form is improved with a 3.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over his last five starts (26.1 IP, 6 walks). However, Castillo remains vulnerable to hard contact, allowing a 9.8% barrel rate and 43.2% hard-hit rate. He is particularly weak against lefties, yielding a .789 OPS and 7 of his 9 home runs to LHB. Toronto is starting five lefties to exploit this, including Nathan Lukes, who hits right-handers with a .343 AVG and .870 OPS. This pitching matchup shifts heavily in Toronto's favor when looking at defense and injuries. The Mariners placed star center fielder Julio Rodríguez (11 OAA) on the concussion IL today, disrupting an already weak defense that ranks bottom-five with -17 OAA and -6 DRS. Seattle is starting an experimental infield, moving J.P. Crawford to third base alongside rookies Cole Young and Colt Emerson. For a contact-prone pitcher like Castillo, playing with a shuffled defense is a major liability. Conversely, Toronto features an elite defense with +17 DRS and a +11 Fielding Run Value, supported by Andrés Giménez (+9 OAA) and Alejandro Kirk (7 framing runs), while welcoming back a healthy Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting second. While the Mariners’ offense has been hot recently—posting a .398 xwOBA, .579 xSLG, and 8.3% barrel rate compared to Toronto's .310 xwOBA, .414 xSLG, and 1.4% barrel rate—losing their franchise centerpiece is a crushing blow. The Blue Jays also enter with a fully rested relief corps; closer Louis Varland (17 SV, 0.98 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) and Tyler Rogers (18 HLD, 1.82 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) haven't pitched since June 29. Meanwhile, Seattle's bullpen is stretched thin after moving Cooper Criswell to the 60-day IL today, and closer Andrés Muñoz (16 SV, 4.60 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) has been volatile. The market's -134 price tag on Toronto is a bargain that fails to fully account for Seattle's fresh defensive chaos and Toronto’s rested bullpen.

This pitching matchup shifts heavily in Toronto's favor when looking at defense and injuries. The Mariners placed star center fielder Julio Rodríguez (11 OAA) on the concussion IL today, disrupting an already weak defense that ranks bottom-five with -17 OAA and -6 DRS. Seattle is starting an experimental infield, moving J.P. Crawford to third base alongside rookies Cole Young and Colt Emerson. For a contact-prone pitcher like Castillo, playing with a shuffled defense is a major liability. Conversely, Toronto features an elite defense with +17 DRS and a +11 Fielding Run Value, supported by Andrés Giménez (+9 OAA) and Alejandro Kirk (7 framing runs), while welcoming back a healthy Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting second.

While the Mariners’ offense has been hot recently—posting a .398 xwOBA, .579 xSLG, and 8.3% barrel rate compared to Toronto's .310 xwOBA, .414 xSLG, and 1.4% barrel rate—losing their franchise centerpiece is a crushing blow. The Blue Jays also enter with a fully rested relief corps; closer Louis Varland (17 SV, 0.98 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) and Tyler Rogers (18 HLD, 1.82 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) haven't pitched since June 29. Meanwhile, Seattle's bullpen is stretched thin after moving Cooper Criswell to the 60-day IL today, and closer Andrés Muñoz (16 SV, 4.60 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) has been volatile. The market's -134 price tag on Toronto is a bargain that fails to fully account for Seattle's fresh defensive chaos and Toronto’s rested bullpen.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

OMAR MARMOUSHSHOTS UNDER 1.5

WCEgypt· -125

While Omar Marmoush is a recognized name in the Egyptian squad, his individual shot volume in the current international cycle has been significantly lower than his club-level reputation suggests. Averaging just 0.75 shots per cap (3 shots in 4 games), he is often utilized in a role that prioritizes creation or spacing over pure volume. He faces an Australian side that is notoriously difficult to break down, conceding only 0.89 xG per match. The Socceroos' defensive identity revolves around a disciplined low-block that denies space in the central and wide attacking channels where Marmoush operates. Against a team that held Paraguay to a 0-0 draw and averages only 1.1 goals against, the opportunities for individual Egyptian attackers to register multiple shots will be limited. Marmoush has failed to clear this 1.5 line in three of his last four international appearances, and this knockout environment favors another low-volume outing.

GARY'S PICK

SEIYA SUZUKIH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBCubs· -155

Suzuki has been the catalyst for a Cubs offense that is arguably the hottest in baseball, having cleared this 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs line in five consecutive games. Tonight he benefits from a afternoon start at Wrigley where temperatures are expected to reach 88 degrees with the wind gusting out to center field at 10 mph—conditions that amplify his .305 home batting average and .936 home OPS. While Andre Pallante is a ground-ball pitcher, Suzuki's recent contact quality has been elite, recording 13 hits in his last 43 at-bats (.302 AVG) with 11 RBIs in that span. Batting in the heart of a lineup that has averaged double-digit runs over their last three games provides a high floor for run-scoring and RBI opportunities.

GARY'S PICK

ALEC BURLESONH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBCardinals· +125

Despite the hitter-friendly conditions at Wrigley tonight, Alec Burleson faces his most significant statistical hurdle: left-handed pitching. Burleson is hitting just .179 with a dismal .439 OPS against southpaws this season, a sharp contrast to his .314 mark against righties. Facing David Peterson, Burleson is trapped in a left-on-left matchup where he has historically struggled to generate extra-base power (only 1 HR in 95 AB vs. LHP). Furthermore, Burleson is in the midst of a significant slump, failing to record a hit in four of his last five games and staying under this 1.5 HRR total in all four of those hitless outings. In a game where the Cardinals may look to pinch-hit for him if a right-handed reliever enters early, his plate appearance floor is also at risk.

GARY'S PICK

LAWRENCE ATI ZIGISAVES OVER 4

WCGhana· -130

This prop is a direct play on the expected match script. Colombia averages 14 total shots and 5.17 shots on target per match, while Ghana is content to sit deep with only 35.33% possession. In a knockout game where Ghana is the heavy underdog, Ati Zigi will be under constant duress. Colombia’s efficiency in finding the frame (nearly 37% of shots are on target) ensures that the Ghanaian keeper will have ample opportunities to register saves. Even if Colombia scores twice, the remaining volume of shots on target (based on their 5.17 average) typically clears a line of 4. At -130, the market requires a 57% hit rate; however, given Colombia's high-pressure style and Ghana's defensive posture, the likelihood of Ati Zigi being forced into 5+ saves is significantly higher, especially as Ghana will be forced to absorb pressure for the majority of the 90 minutes.

GARY'S PICK

LUIS DÍAZANYTIME GOAL OVER 1

WCColombia· +155

Luis Díaz is the undisputed focal point of the Colombian attack, accounting for 7 goals in 17 caps during this cycle. While the market prices this at +155 (39% implied), Díaz’s actual scoring rate of 41.1% already provides a statistical edge before accounting for the specific matchup. Colombia is a heavy favorite in this Round of 32 clash, averaging 14 shots and 1.43 xG per match. They face a Ghana side that has struggled defensively, conceding 1.5 goals per match over their last 10 outings. Ghana's tendency to concede possession (35.33%) will allow Colombia to camp in the final third, providing Díaz with multiple high-quality opportunities. In a knockout scenario, Colombia will lean on their elite playmaker to break down a low block, and Díaz's high shot volume (37 shots in 17 caps) makes him the most likely candidate to find the net.

GARY'S PICK

JARREN DURANHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBRed Sox· +110

Jarren Duran is a prime candidate for the under on hits tonight due to a combination of poor season-long performance and a difficult lefty-on-lefty matchup. Duran is hitting just .196 on the season and has been held hitless in three of his last five starts. He faces Reid Detmers, whose 3.88 ERA masks an elite 3.04 xERA, indicating he is pitching at a borderline-ace level. Detmers has been particularly dominant against left-handed hitters, allowing a meager .545 OPS. Furthermore, Duran has been dropped to the 7th spot in the Red Sox batting order, which significantly reduces his expected volume of plate appearances compared to a leadoff role. Against a high-strikeout pitcher like Detmers (10.1 K/9), Duran's limited opportunities and low contact rate make the under the high-value play.

GARY'S PICK

JOSE SIRIH+R+RBI UNDER 0.5

MLBAngels· +110

Jose Siri is currently mired in a severe offensive slump, having recorded a hit, run, or RBI in only one of his last five appearances. He faces Jake Bennett, a lefty who has demonstrated exceptional command and a stingy 1.06 WHIP through his first six starts of 2026. Bennett's ability to limit walks (2.4 BB/9) and keep runners off base makes it difficult for a bottom-of-the-order hitter like Siri to find success. Slotted in the 7th spot, Siri will likely see only three or four plate appearances, giving him a very narrow window to produce. While the 8 mph wind blowing out to center field is a slight risk for Siri's power, his current 1-for-19 cold streak and high strikeout potential against a disciplined pitcher like Bennett suggest he will likely finish the night with an empty box score.

GARY'S PICK

TYLER PHILLIPSPITCHER OUTS UNDER 16.5

MLBMarlins· -140

Phillips is a prime candidate for regression, as evidenced by his 4.42 xERA standing significantly higher than his 3.02 surface ERA. His workload has trended downward recently; he has failed to clear this 16.5-out line (5.2 innings) in three consecutive starts, completing 4.0, 5.0, and 4.2 innings respectively. Tonight's conditions are extreme, with temperatures projected at 96°F at first pitch and a game total listed at an unusually high 15.5 runs. High-scoring, high-heat environments typically lead to elevated pitch counts and early fatigue for starters. Against an Athletics lineup with power threats like Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers, Phillips—who relies heavily on a sinker that carries a .413 xwOBA—is unlikely to provide the length required for the over.

GARY'S PICK

OTTO LOPEZH+R+RBI OVER 2.5

MLBMarlins· +121

Lopez has been the most consistent offensive producer for the Marlins, maintaining a .336 average on the season and a red-hot .366 over his last 10 games. He occupies the #3 spot in the order, ensuring he sees high-leverage plate appearances with runners on base. Tonight he faces Jack Perkins, who has struggled with a 6.00 ERA and shows a clear vulnerability to right-handed hitters like Lopez, allowing them a .796 OPS compared to just .660 against lefties. Lopez has cleared this 2.5 HRR threshold in three of his last five games, including a 9-HRR explosion against Colorado. In a game environment where the total is set at 15.5, the opportunities for hits, runs, and RBIs will be plentiful.

GARY'S PICK

KETEL MARTEH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBDiamondbacks· -147

Ketel Marte is currently the most productive hitter in the Arizona lineup, having recorded five home runs in his last ten games and entering tonight on a streak of five consecutive games with at least one RBI. He faces Milwaukee southpaw Kyle Harrison, which sets up a premier matchup for Marte; the switch-hitter owns a .955 OPS against lefties this season. Furthermore, Harrison is a fly-ball pitcher (0.65 GO/AO) who has been significantly more vulnerable to right-handed power, surrendering eight of his nine home runs this season to hitters from that side. Batting leadoff for Arizona, Marte will see maximum plate appearances to capitalize on this platoon advantage and his current power surge.

GARY'S PICK

CHRISTIAN YELICHH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBBrewers· +120

While Christian Yelich remains a fixture at the top of the Brewers' order, he is currently mired in his worst slump of the 2026 season. Over his last 10 games, he is hitting just .143 with zero home runs and high strikeout totals. The game logs show a complete lack of offensive production recently, as he has gone hitless with zero total bases in four of his last five games. While Jose Cabrera is an unproven starter, Yelich's current inability to find the gaps or drive the ball makes the 'Under' a high-value play at plus-money. Even if he manages a single, his lack of extra-base hits recently suggests he will need significant help from the hitters behind him to score or drive in a run to clear this 1.5 line.

GARY'S PICK

MANNY MACHADOHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBPadres· +123

This is a fundamental mismatch between a hitter struggling against right-handed pitching and a pitcher producing historic numbers against right-handed batters. Manny Machado has hit just .175 against righties this season and holds a meager .192 average overall through 84 games. Tonight he faces Shohei Ohtani, who has been virtually impenetrable for right-handed hitters, holding them to a .142 batting average and a 0.90 season WHIP. While Machado has shown flashes of production recently, his 2026 baseline reflects a player who is overmatched by Ohtani’s 98 mph fastball and elite secondary stuff. Statistically, even with 4 plate appearances, the probability of Machado failing to record a hit against Ohtani's .142 BAA is roughly 54%, making the +123 price (44.8% break-even) an exceptional value play.

GARY'S PICK

FREDDIE FREEMANH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBDodgers· -123

Freddie Freeman is currently the most productive hitter in the Dodgers' lineup, maintaining a .447 average over his last 10 games. Tonight’s conditions at Dodger Stadium are a statistical 'perfect storm' for a left-handed hitter; the combination of 84-degree temperatures and an 8 mph wind blowing directly out to the right-field power alley significantly boosts the carry of his batted balls. He faces Michael King, a right-handed pitcher whose ERA of 3.55 is heavily masked by an xERA of 4.76, suggesting he is due for significant regression. Freeman's position in the 3-hole behind Shohei Ohtani ensures he will have multiple opportunities with runners on base or high-leverage plate appearances to drive this over through hits, runs, or RBIs. He has cleared this 1.5 H+R+RBI mark in 7 of his last 10 outings.

GARY'S PICK

VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR.TOTAL BASES UNDER 1.5

MLBBlue Jays· -159

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a strong candidate for the under on 1.5 total bases due to a combination of declining power and recent injury concerns. Guerrero has recorded only 4 home runs in 303 at-bats this season, a stark drop in power production that makes clearing 1.5 bases much harder without a multi-hit game. Furthermore, he is returning to the lineup tonight after missing time this week with back and oblique tightness—injuries that specifically limit the rotational explosion necessary for extra-base hits. His recent form is poor, hitting only .214 over his last 10 games and failing to reach 2 total bases in 7 of those 10 contests. Facing Luis Castillo, who has been highly effective at limiting power against right-handed hitters (only 2 HR allowed to RHB all season), and playing in a T-Mobile Park environment known for 'marine air' that suppresses ball flight, Guerrero's path to multiple bases is severely restricted.

GARY'S PICK

KAZUMA OKAMOTOHITS OVER 0.5

MLBBlue Jays· -160

Kazuma Okamoto is currently the hottest hitter in the Blue Jays' lineup, maintaining a .333 average and an elite 1.167 OPS over his last 10 games. He enters this matchup on a four-game hitting streak, including three multi-hit performances in that span. He faces Mariners starter Luis Castillo, who has struggled significantly with contact quality this season, surrendering a 43.2% hard-hit rate and a 9.8% barrel rate—both of which indicate he is vulnerable to the kind of power Okamoto is currently displaying. Castillo's 1.36 WHIP and .264 average allowed to right-handed hitters further suggest that Okamoto will have multiple high-leverage opportunities to record at least one hit. Given Okamoto's current consistency and Castillo's elevated ERA (4.93), the Blue Jays' 3-hole hitter is well-positioned to clear this low hit line.

Research

143

BULLPENMIN @ NYY
New York Yankees pen: 18 relief IP over their last 3 games
New York Yankees's bullpen has thrown 18 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
PLATOON EDGETOR @ SEA
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 1st against Luis Castillo (RHP)
Over 137 AB vs. Right, Nathan Lukes owns a .870 OPS versus .306 in 30 AB the other way. He sees RHP Luis Castillo tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKSTL @ CHC
Dansby Swanson: 1.383 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 48 PA: a 1.383 OPS versus .731 for the season, 0.652 above his norm. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
TEAM RECORDBAL @ CIN
Reds 1-7 in Brady Singer's last 8 starts
Reds are 1-7 in Brady Singer's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
PLATOON EDGECHW @ CLE
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Gavin Williams (RHP)
Over 187 AB vs. Right, Sam Antonacci owns a .914 OPS versus .456 in 44 AB the other way. He sees RHP Gavin Williams tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
COOLING OFFNYM @ ATL
Drake Baldwin: .210 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Christian Scott
Drake Baldwin's .210 OPS over the last 15 days (45 PA) trails his .791 season mark, down 0.581. Tonight he draws RHP Christian Scott — his weaker side: a .752 OPS vs RHP across 142 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TEAM RECORDPIT @ WSH
Nationals 7-1 in Foster Griffin's last 8 starts
Nationals are 7-1 in Foster Griffin's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.
HEAD-TO-HEADSD @ LAD
Dodgers are 7-2 vs Padres this season
Dodgers lead the season series 7-2 over Padres. LAD won the last meeting 12-7.
PLATOON EDGESF @ COL
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Mickey Moniak's vs. Right line (1.030 OPS, 149 AB) sits well above his .592 mark the other way (33 AB). Tonight's starter Logan Webb throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMTB @ HOU
Spencer Arrighetti: 10.80 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 10.80 ERA over his last 15 innings with a 1.67 WHIP (1.29 season) — the 4.00 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
HEAT CHECKBOS @ LAA
Caleb Durbin: 1.171 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 48 PA: a 1.171 OPS versus .674 for the season, 0.497 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEMIN @ NYY
Trevor Larnach (bats L) hits 1st against Gerrit Cole (RHP)
Over 200 AB vs. Right, Trevor Larnach owns a .860 OPS versus .493 in 27 AB the other way. He sees RHP Gerrit Cole tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
STREAKCPV @ ARG
Argentina are unbeaten in 9 internationals
Across their last 5 World Cup matches they are 4-1-0 (W-W-W-D-W), carrying a 9-match unbeaten run into this fixture.
P team won 2-3
HEAT CHECKPIT @ WSH
Luis Garcia Jr.: 1.517 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 37 PA: a 1.517 OPS versus .847 for the season, 0.67 above his norm. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-4, 8 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEBAL @ CIN
Spencer Steer (bats R) draws Trevor Rogers (LHP), batting 3rd
Spencer Steer carries a 1.039 OPS vs. Left (66 AB) against .630 the other way (219 AB), and faces LHP Trevor Rogers from the 3rd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFMIN @ NYY
Cody Bellinger: .357 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Mike Paredes
Cody Bellinger's .357 OPS over the last 15 days (46 PA) trails his .785 season mark, down 0.428. Tonight he draws RHP Mike Paredes — his weaker side: a .772 OPS vs RHP across 198 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
BULLPENSTL @ CHC
St. Louis Cardinals pen: 14.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
St. Louis Cardinals's bullpen has thrown 14.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 5 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
PLATOON EDGEMIA @ OAK
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 1st against Jack Perkins (RHP)
Over 211 AB vs. Right, Liam Hicks owns a .885 OPS versus .573 in 51 AB the other way. He sees RHP Jack Perkins tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 2 BB
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ ARI
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.913 OPS, 221 AB) sits well above his .554 mark the other way (92 AB). Tonight's starter Jose Cabrera throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 3-for-6, 3 TB
TEAM RECORDMIA @ OAK
Athletics 2-6 in Jack Perkins's last 8 starts
Athletics are 2-6 in Jack Perkins's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDBOS @ LAA
Angels 6-2 in Reid Detmers's last 8 starts
Angels are 6-2 in Reid Detmers's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.
COOLING OFFBAL @ CIN
JJ Bleday: .412 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Trevor Rogers
JJ Bleday's .412 OPS over the last 15 days (41 PA) trails his .835 season mark, down 0.423. Tonight he draws LHP Trevor Rogers — his weaker side: a .688 OPS vs LHP across 58 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
COOLING OFFBOS @ LAA
Jarren Duran: .200 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Reid Detmers
Jarren Duran's .200 OPS over the last 15 days (44 PA) trails his .603 season mark, down 0.403. Tonight he draws LHP Reid Detmers — his weaker side: a .581 OPS vs LHP across 74 AB.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
TEAM RECORDSTL @ CHC
Cardinals 6-2 in Andre Pallante's last 8 starts
Cardinals are 6-2 in Andre Pallante's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDNYM @ ATL
Mets 6-2 in Christian Scott's last 8 starts
Mets are 6-2 in Christian Scott's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.
HEAT CHECKTB @ HOU
Junior Caminero: 1.323 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.323 OPS spans the last 15 days (51 PA) against a .929 season baseline, a 0.394 swing. He has 24 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
HEAT CHECKSD @ LAD
Mookie Betts: 1.110 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.110 OPS spans the last 15 days (52 PA) against a .750 season baseline, a 0.36 swing. He has 11 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
SITUATIONALMIN @ NYY
NYY's pen has logged 18 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 18 innings out of the pen — Ryan Yarbrough (2.7) and Jake Bird (2.3) carried the load. MIN's pen has thrown 10 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-5
STREAKMIN @ NYY
NYY have lost 5 straight
5 losses in a row for NYY, a -25 run margin across the slide — they limp in 1-5 over their last 6.
P team won 2-5
HEAT CHECKSD @ LAD
Manny Machado: 1.073 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.073 OPS spans the last 15 days (48 PA) against a .687 season baseline, a 0.386 swing. He has 17 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
STREAKTB @ HOU
TB have won 5 straight
Tampa Bay Rays have won 5 straight, outscoring teams by 24 runs over the run; 7-3 across their last 10.
P team won 3-1
COOLING OFFMIN @ NYY
Ben Rice: .544 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Mike Paredes
Ben Rice's .544 OPS over the last 15 days (54 PA) trails his .922 season mark, down 0.378. Tonight he draws RHP Mike Paredes — his stronger side: a 1.008 OPS vs RHP across 194 AB.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
STREAKGHA @ COL
Colombia are unbeaten in 5 internationals
Across their last 5 World Cup matches they are 4-1-0 (D-W-W-W-W), carrying a 5-match unbeaten run into this fixture.
P team won 0-1
HEAT CHECKMIL @ ARI
Ketel Marte: 1.175 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.175 OPS spans the last 15 days (46 PA) against a .812 season baseline, a 0.363 swing. He has 17 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ ARI
Corbin Carroll (bats L) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
Corbin Carroll's vs. Left line (1.072 OPS, 101 AB) sits well above his .773 mark the other way (208 AB). Tonight's starter Kyle Harrison throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEBAL @ CIN
Samuel Basallo (bats L) draws Brady Singer (RHP), batting 5th
Samuel Basallo carries a .851 OPS vs. Right (184 AB) against .505 the other way (58 AB), and faces RHP Brady Singer from the 5th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGECHW @ CLE
Andrew Benintendi (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Andrew Benintendi's vs. Right line (.770 OPS, 211 AB) sits well above his .454 mark the other way (32 AB). Tonight's starter Gavin Williams throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKMIA @ OAK
Owen Caissie: 1.197 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (32 PA) he is at a 1.197 OPS, up 0.46 on his .737 season mark. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
PLATOON EDGEMIN @ NYY
Ben Rice (bats L) hits 2nd against Mike Paredes (RHP)
Over 194 AB vs. Right, Ben Rice owns a 1.008 OPS versus .762 in 107 AB the other way. He sees RHP Mike Paredes tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
TOURNAMENTTO LIFT THE CUP
France head the title market at +180
France are the market's outright World Cup favourite at +180. Argentina (+410) and Spain (+550) are the next shortest.
TOURNAMENTTO LIFT THE CUP
France head the title market at +175
France are the market's outright World Cup favourite at +175. Argentina (+410) and Spain (+550) are the next shortest.
SITUATIONALTB @ HOU
15 bullpen innings in 3 games for HOU
Relievers have absorbed 15 innings over the last 3 games (Miguel Ullola (4) and AJ Blubaugh (2.7) the heaviest). TB's pen has thrown 9 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 3-1
HEAT CHECKPIT @ WSH
Esmerlyn Valdez: 1.557 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 33 PA: a 1.557 OPS versus 1.112 for the season, 0.445 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB
BALLPARKBAL @ CIN
Brady Singer owns a 3.25 ERA at Great American Ball Park — 6.75 everywhere else
Across 7 games (36 IP) at Great American Ball Park, Brady Singer has a 3.25 ERA against 6.75 at his other parks (41.3 IP). Hitters bat .245 off him here.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
STARTER FORMBAL @ CIN
Trevor Rogers: 1.40 ERA over his last 3 starts
He has allowed 3 earned runs over his last 19.3 innings (1.40 ERA) with a 0.78 WHIP (1.31 season) — a different pitcher than the 4.99 season line says.
P 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
COOLING OFFTOR @ SEA
J.P. Crawford: .389 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Dylan Cease
J.P. Crawford's .389 OPS over the last 15 days (53 PA) trails his .685 season mark, down 0.296. Tonight he draws RHP Dylan Cease — his stronger side: a .715 OPS vs RHP across 181 AB.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFMIA @ OAK
Nick Kurtz: .622 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Tyler Phillips
Nick Kurtz's .622 OPS over the last 15 days (48 PA) trails his .938 season mark, down 0.316. Tonight he draws RHP Tyler Phillips — his stronger side: a 1.005 OPS vs RHP across 194 AB.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFSF @ COL
Bryce Eldridge: .444 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Ryan Feltner
Bryce Eldridge's .444 OPS over the last 15 days (40 PA) trails his .828 season mark, down 0.384. Tonight he draws RHP Ryan Feltner — his stronger side: a .845 OPS vs RHP across 116 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGENYM @ ATL
Dominic Smith (bats L) gets a RHP from the 6th spot
Dominic Smith's vs. Right line (.783 OPS, 161 AB) sits well above his .459 mark the other way (26 AB). Tonight's starter Christian Scott throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
XG RECAPSEN @ BEL
Senegal out-created the field but didn't win
Senegal won the xG battle 3.5–1.8 yet lost to Belgium (3–2). The underlying numbers favoured them — a side the result flattered to deceive.
HEAT CHECKMIN @ NYY
Victor Caratini: 1.052 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.052 OPS spans the last 15 days (38 PA) against a .711 season baseline, a 0.341 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
SITUATIONALSTL @ CHC
14.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for STL
Relievers have absorbed 14.3 innings over the last 3 games (Justin Bruihl (3) and George Soriano (2.7) the heaviest). CHC's pen has thrown 10.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 17-1
PLATOON EDGENYM @ ATL
A.J. Ewing (bats L) hits 1st against Grant Holmes (RHP)
Over 115 AB vs. Right, A.J. Ewing owns a .804 OPS versus .612 in 42 AB the other way. He sees RHP Grant Holmes tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
STARTER FORMMIA @ OAK
Tyler Phillips: 6.23 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 6.23 ERA over his last 17.3 innings with a 1.33 WHIP (1.31 season) — the 3.02 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
SITUATIONALBOS @ LAA
BOS's pen has logged 14 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14 innings out of the pen — Ryan Watson (3) and Alec Gamboa (2.3) carried the load. LAA's pen has thrown 10 over the same span.
P flagged side won 5-2
REGRESSIONMIA @ OAK
Jack Perkins: 6 ERA vs 3.79 xERA
Jack Perkins carries a 6 ERA against a 3.79 expected ERA (2.21 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .252 off him vs a .233 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 K
HEAT CHECKSTL @ CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1.153 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 45 PA: a 1.153 OPS versus .898 for the season, 0.255 above his norm. He has 19 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
BULLPENTB @ HOU
Houston Astros pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
Houston Astros's bullpen has thrown 15 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
STARTER FORMSD @ LAD
Shohei Ohtani: 4.34 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 18.7 innings, 9 earned runs, 18 hits. That 4.34 ERA runs 2.76 over his 1.58 season number.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
COOLING OFFPIT @ WSH
James Wood: .679 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Mitch Keller
James Wood's .679 OPS over the last 15 days (54 PA) trails his .911 season mark, down 0.232. Tonight he draws RHP Mitch Keller — his stronger side: a .939 OPS vs RHP across 214 AB.
P 2-for-5, 5 TB
SITUATIONALTOR @ SEA
13.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for TOR
Relievers have absorbed 13.3 innings over the last 3 games (Patrick Corbin (5) and Spencer Miles (3) the heaviest). SEA's pen has thrown only 6 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-0
STARTER FORMCHW @ CLE
Gavin Williams: 6.60 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (15 IP) he has been tagged for 11 earned runs — a 6.60 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP (1.17 season) against a 3.81 season mark.
P 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
HEAT CHECKSF @ COL
TJ Rumfield: 1.086 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 49 PA: a 1.086 OPS versus .860 for the season, 0.226 above his norm. He has 12 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
TOURNAMENTCPV @ ARG
Argentina vs Cabo Verde: Round of 32 stakes
This is a round of 32 tie — win or go home. To lift the trophy: Cabo Verde are 2000-1 outsiders. The market has it Argentina -700 / the draw +750 / Cabo Verde +1900.
REGRESSIONSD @ LAD
Jake Cronenworth: .164 AVG vs .225 xBA
Across 128 plate appearances, Jake Cronenworth carries a .164 average versus a .225 xBA. His wOBA sits at .245 against a .304 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
TOURNAMENTPATH TO THE FINAL
Argentina are the market's pick to reach the final from the other half
Behind the outright favourite, Argentina carry the shortest price to reach the final at +160 — the side the market most expects to come through the other half of the bracket.
TOURNAMENTGHA @ COL
Colombia vs Ghana: Round of 32 stakes
This is a round of 32 tie — win or go home. To lift the trophy: Colombia are 30-1 outsiders. The market has it Colombia -230 / the draw +340 / Ghana +750.
COOLING OFFNYM @ ATL
Matt Olson: .602 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Christian Scott
Matt Olson's .602 OPS over the last 15 days (44 PA) trails his .859 season mark, down 0.257. Tonight he draws RHP Christian Scott — his stronger side: a .883 OPS vs RHP across 178 AB.
P 2-for-3, 8 TB, 1 BB
TOURNAMENTEGY @ AUS
Australia vs Egypt: Round of 32 stakes
This is a round of 32 tie — win or go home. To lift the trophy: Australia are 350-1 outsiders. The market has it Australia +265 / the draw +195 / Egypt +135.
STREAKEGY @ AUS
Egypt are unbeaten in 3 internationals
Recent tournament form sits 1-2-2 over the last 5 (D-W-D-L-L), with a 3-match unbeaten run live.
P team won 1-1
SITUATIONALEgypt @ Australia
Australia rotated 4
Confirmed XI: Australia made 4 changes from their last match (Cameron Burgess, Jacob Italiano, Paul Okon-Engstler… out). A heavily-rotated side — resting legs or managing the group — is playing below full strength: value on Egypt (side + over their total) the market is slow to adjust for.
SITUATIONALGhana @ Colombia
Ghana rotated 4
Confirmed XI: Ghana made 4 changes from their last match (Jonas Adjei Adjetey, Benjamin Asare, Elisha Owusu… out). A heavily-rotated side — resting legs or managing the group — is playing below full strength: value on Colombia (side + over their total) the market is slow to adjust for.
HEAT CHECKCHW @ CLE
Sam Antonacci: 1.038 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.038 OPS spans the last 15 days (48 PA) against a .827 season baseline, a 0.211 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
TOMORROWSF @ COL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.8 ERA vs 7.07 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SF. A 4.8 ERA against a 7.07 expected ERA (2.27 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .269 vs .310 expected.
REGRESSIONTB @ HOU
Nick Martinez: 2.66 ERA vs 4.57 xERA
Nick Martinez carries a 2.66 ERA against a 4.57 expected ERA (1.91 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .253 off him vs a .280 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
SITUATIONALCHW @ CLE
CHW's bullpen has covered 12.7 innings over the last 3 games
That is 12.7 relief innings in 3 games, led by Tyler Schweitzer (4) and Brandon Eisert (2). CLE's pen has thrown 10 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 3-4
PARK WEATHERMIN @ NYY
99° at Yankee Stadium — the ball will carry tonight
Conditions at Yankee Stadium: Partly Cloudy, 99°, wind 8 mph, Out To RF. Heat like this turns warning-track outs into souvenirs. The total sits at 10.
P final total 7 vs 10 (over lean)
PARK WEATHERPIT @ WSH
99° at Nationals Park — the ball will carry tonight
Tonight's reading at Nationals Park — Clear, 99°, wind 7 mph, L To R. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 9.5.
P final total 14 vs 9.5 (over lean)
COOLING OFFCHW @ CLE
Colson Montgomery: .619 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Gavin Williams
Colson Montgomery's .619 OPS over the last 15 days (50 PA) trails his .788 season mark, down 0.169. Tonight he draws RHP Gavin Williams — his weaker side: a .752 OPS vs RHP across 213 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKMIN @ NYY
Trevor Larnach: 1.038 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.038 OPS spans the last 15 days (45 PA) against a .817 season baseline, a 0.221 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
SITUATIONALSF @ COL
COL's bullpen has covered 12.7 innings over the last 3 games
That is 12.7 relief innings in 3 games, led by Brennan Bernardino (2.3) and Juan Mejia (2). SF's pen has thrown 12 over the same span.
P flagged side won 3-15
TOMORROWSD @ LAD
Griffin Canning: 7.08 ERA vs 5.06 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs LAD. A 7.08 ERA against a 5.06 expected ERA (2.03 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .279 vs .254 expected.
STARTER FORMSF @ COL
Logan Webb: 0.78 ERA over his last 3 starts
He has allowed 2 earned runs over his last 23 innings (0.78 ERA) with a 0.70 WHIP (1.06 season) — a different pitcher than the 3.09 season line says.
P 3 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
BULLPENBOS @ LAA
Boston Red Sox pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Boston Red Sox's bullpen has thrown 14 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
COOLING OFFBAL @ CIN
Matt McLain: .203 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Trevor Rogers
Matt McLain's .203 OPS over the last 15 days (24 PA) trails his .635 season mark, down 0.432. Tonight he draws LHP Trevor Rogers — his stronger side: a .749 OPS vs LHP across 55 AB.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
REGRESSIONTB @ HOU
Taylor Trammell: .265 AVG vs .216 xBA
Across 109 plate appearances, Taylor Trammell carries a .265 average versus a .216 xBA. His wOBA sits at .335 against a .302 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
BULLPENSD @ LAD
Los Angeles Dodgers pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
Los Angeles Dodgers's bullpen has thrown 15 innings across their last 3 games, with 1 arm working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
STARTER FORMMIN @ NYY
Gerrit Cole: 6.32 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 6.32 ERA over his last 15.7 innings with a 1.47 WHIP (1.22 season) — the 4.06 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
XG REGRESSIONCPV @ ARG
Argentina are finishing above their chances
Argentina are scoring 2.7/match on 2.0 xG — 0.7 goals/match above expected across 3 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
BALLPARKCHW @ CLE
Gavin Williams's ERA drops to 2.74 at Progressive Field
Gavin Williams carries a 2.74 ERA over 8 games (49.3 IP) at Progressive Field vs 4.82 across 52.3 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .217 off him here.
P 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
TOMORROWMIL @ ARI
Merrill Kelly: 5.84 ERA vs 7.57 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIL. A 5.84 ERA against a 7.57 expected ERA (1.73 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .287 vs .310 expected.
REGRESSIONSF @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .280 AVG vs .233 xBA
Mickey Moniak's .280 average comes against a .233 expected (xBA) on 197 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .400 against a .326 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONSF @ COL
TJ Rumfield: .293 AVG vs .247 xBA
TJ Rumfield's .293 average comes against a .247 expected (xBA) on 346 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .375 against a .321 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONMIA @ OAK
Lawrence Butler: .196 AVG vs .244 xBA
Across 240 plate appearances, Lawrence Butler carries a .196 average versus a .244 xBA. His wOBA sits at .265 against a .309 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
SITUATIONALSD @ LAD
12 bullpen innings in 3 games for LAD
Relievers have absorbed 12 innings over the last 3 games (Charlie Barnes (7) and Jonathan Hernandez (1.3) the heaviest). SD's pen has thrown 11.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 3-4
REGRESSIONNYM @ ATL
Christian Scott: 3.2 ERA vs 4.64 xERA
Christian Scott carries a 3.2 ERA against a 4.64 expected ERA (1.44 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .229 off him vs a .248 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 4 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
REGRESSIONSTL @ CHC
Nico Hoerner: .240 AVG vs .285 xBA
Nico Hoerner is hitting .240 against a .285 expected average (xBA) over 385 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .295 against a .322 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
REGRESSIONMIA @ OAK
Tyler Phillips: 3.02 ERA vs 4.42 xERA
Tyler Phillips carries a 3.02 ERA against a 4.42 expected ERA (1.41 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .228 off him vs a .248 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
TOMORROWSTL @ CHC
Kyle Leahy: 4.09 ERA vs 5.77 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CHC. A 4.09 ERA against a 5.77 expected ERA (1.68 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .279 vs .286 expected.
PARK WEATHERSTL @ CHC
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Wrigley Field tonight
Conditions at Wrigley Field: Overcast, 88°, wind 10 mph, Out To CF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 10.5.
P final total 18 vs 10.5 (over lean)
XG RECAPSWE @ FRA
France created the better chances
France led the xG 3.2–0.7 and took the result to match (3–0).
TOURNAMENTSUREST TO ADVANCE
Côte d'Ivoire are the surest bet to advance
Côte d'Ivoire are -10000 to escape their group out of Group E — the shortest to-advance price on the board.
PLATOON EDGESTL @ CHC
Masyn Winn (bats R) hits 6th against David Peterson (LHP)
Over 66 AB vs. Left, Masyn Winn owns a .781 OPS versus .619 in 215 AB the other way. He sees LHP David Peterson tonight hitting 6th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
BATTER VS ARMTOR @ SEA
Luis Castillo vs Daulton Varsho: 1-for-13, 5 K
Luis Castillo has limited Daulton Varsho to 1-for-13 (.077) with 5 strikeouts in 13 career at-bats. They face off again tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
RUNNING GAMECHW @ CLE
Green light: Chicago White Sox run, and Austin Hedges has caught just 6%
Austin Hedges is catching tonight at 6% on the season (2-for-33 throwing), and Chicago White Sox attempt 1 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Chicago White Sox stole 0 bases
TOMORROWPIT @ WSH
Zack Littell: 5.29 ERA vs 6.76 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs PIT. A 5.29 ERA against a 6.76 expected ERA (1.47 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .263 vs .297 expected.
BATTER VS ARMSTL @ CHC
Ian Happ vs Andre Pallante: .385
Ian Happ's career line off Andre Pallante is 5-for-13, a .385 average over 13 at-bats — they meet again tonight. He enters steady (.660 OPS, L15).
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
REGRESSIONSD @ LAD
Michael King: 3.55 ERA vs 4.76 xERA
Michael King carries a 3.55 ERA against a 4.76 expected ERA (1.21 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .217 off him vs a .253 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
BALLPARKMIN @ NYY
At Yankee Stadium, Gerrit Cole pitches to a 3.12 ERA
Gerrit Cole at Yankee Stadium: 3.12 ERA over 17.3 innings (3G) — 4.87 on a 20.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .177 off him here.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
RUNNING GAMEPIT @ WSH
Green light: Washington Nationals run, and Endy Rodriguez has caught just 9%
Washington Nationals steal 1 bags a game (90 on the season) and Endy Rodriguez has thrown out 2 of 22 runners (9%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P Washington Nationals stole 1 base
RUNNING GAMEMIA @ OAK
Miami Marlins like to run — Shea Langeliers (36% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Miami Marlins attempt 1.4 steals a game, but Shea Langeliers has cut down 16 of 44 runners (36%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Miami Marlins stole 1 base
REGRESSIONMIN @ NYY
Mike Paredes: 4.26 ERA vs 5.44 xERA
Mike Paredes carries a 4.26 ERA against a 5.44 expected ERA (1.18 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .240 off him vs a .285 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 4 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
COOLING OFFSTL @ CHC
Ivan Herrera: .632 OPS in L15 — draws LHP David Peterson
Ivan Herrera's .632 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .792 season mark, down 0.16. Tonight he draws LHP David Peterson — his stronger side: a .877 OPS vs LHP across 84 AB.
P 3-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONSD @ LAD
Shohei Ohtani: 1.58 ERA vs 2.69 xERA
Shohei Ohtani carries a 1.58 ERA against a 2.69 expected ERA (1.11 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .171 off him vs a .201 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
COOLING OFFSTL @ CHC
Blaze Jordan: .424 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (35 PA) he is at a .424 OPS, down 0.171 from his .595 season mark.
P 3-for-5, 3 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSBAL @ CIN
Samuel Basallo
Pickup vs Brady Singer (5.58 xERA) — .769 OPS, bats 5th.
FANTASY PICKUPSMIN @ NYY
Cody Bellinger
Pickup vs Mike Paredes (5.44 xERA) — .785 OPS, bats 4th.
FANTASY PICKUPSPIT @ WSH
Luis Garcia Jr.
Pickup vs Mitch Keller (4.99 xERA) — .847 OPS, bats 2nd.
TOMORROWSF @ COL
Robbie Ray: 3.39 ERA vs 4.6 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs COL. A 3.39 ERA against a 4.6 expected ERA (1.21 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .214 vs .238 expected.
PARK WEATHERBAL @ CIN
93° at Great American Ball Park — the ball will carry tonight
Tonight's reading at Great American Ball Park — Clear, 93°, wind 2 mph, Out To LF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 10.5.
P final total 3 vs 10.5 (over lean)
XG RECAPMAR @ NED
Morocco dominated the ball but only drew
Morocco held 70% of possession yet could only draw (1–1) — control without the cutting edge.
BULLPENTOR @ SEA
Toronto Blue Jays pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Toronto Blue Jays's bullpen has thrown 13.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 1 arm working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
FANTASY PICKUPSBAL @ CIN
Adley Rutschman
Pickup vs Brady Singer (5.58 xERA) — .773 OPS, bats 2nd.
TOMORROWNYM @ ATL
Chris Sale: 2.1 ERA vs 3.21 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs NYM. A 2.1 ERA against a 3.21 expected ERA (1.11 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .224 vs .227 expected.
RUNNING GAMEMIN @ NYY
Green light: New York Yankees run, and Victor Caratini has caught just 14%
New York Yankees steal 1 bags a game (89 on the season) and Victor Caratini has thrown out 7 of 50 runners (14%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P New York Yankees stole 2 bases
TOMORROWBAL @ CIN
Brandon Young: 3.11 ERA vs 4.24 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CIN. A 3.11 ERA against a 4.24 expected ERA (1.13 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .242 vs .252 expected.
BULLPENCHW @ CLE
Chicago White Sox pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Chicago White Sox's bullpen has thrown 12.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 1 arm working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
FANTASY PICKUPSSTL @ CHC
Alec Burleson
Pickup vs David Peterson (4.86 xERA) — .814 OPS, bats 5th.
BALLPARKCPV @ ARG
Argentina vs Cabo Verde: 17 mph wind at Hard Rock Stadium
Sustained 17 mph wind at kickoff — it pushes around crosses, long balls, and set pieces. Conditions at Hard Rock Stadium: 89°F, 17 mph wind, 23% rain.
TOMORROWTB @ HOU
Hunter Brown: 1.78 ERA vs 2.69 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TB. A 1.78 ERA against a 2.69 expected ERA (0.91 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .187 vs .169 expected.
RUNNING GAMETOR @ SEA
Green light: Seattle Mariners run, and Alejandro Kirk has caught just 13%
Seattle Mariners steal 0.8 bags a game (68 on the season) and Alejandro Kirk has thrown out 4 of 30 runners (13%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P Seattle Mariners stole 0 bases
FIRST INNINGNYM @ ATL
NYM have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
New York Mets have scored in the first inning just 0 times in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FANTASY PICKUPSSTL @ CHC
Ivan Herrera
Pickup vs David Peterson (4.86 xERA) — .792 OPS, bats 2nd.
FANTASY PICKUPSPIT @ WSH
Foster Griffin
Streamer vs PIT — 3.9 xERA · 9 K/9 · 1.04 WHIP.
BALLPARKEGY @ AUS
Australia vs Egypt: indoors at AT&T Stadium
AT&T Stadium is a retractable-roof venue — retractable roof with air conditioning. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
FANTASY PICKUPSMIN @ NYY
Gerrit Cole
Streamer vs MIN — 3.5 xERA · 8.1 K/9 · 1.22 WHIP.
FANTASY PICKUPSSF @ COL
Logan Webb
Streamer vs COL — 3.61 xERA · 7.6 K/9 · 1.06 WHIP.
SITUATIONALCabo Verde @ Argentina
Argentina v Cabo Verde: lineup in doubt
Projected XI — but romero is a game-time call. Confirmed sheet posts ~2h before kickoff.
BALLPARKGHA @ COL
Colombia vs Ghana: warm at Arrowhead Stadium
91°F at kickoff — warm enough to weigh on legs across 90+ minutes. Conditions at Arrowhead Stadium: 91°F, 9 mph wind, 0% rain.
BATTER VS ARMSF @ COL
Hunter Goodman vs Logan Webb: .400
Hunter Goodman has gone 4-for-10 (.400) across 10 career at-bats off Logan Webb. They meet again tonight. He enters hot (.817 OPS, L15).
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
FIRST INNINGSF @ COL
SF have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
San Francisco Giants have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGTOR @ SEA
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Seattle Mariners have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
BATTER VS ARMPIT @ WSH
CJ Abrams vs Mitch Keller: .357
In 14 career at-bats against Mitch Keller, CJ Abrams is 5-for-14 for a .714 OPS. The two square off again tonight. He enters hot (.806 OPS, L15).
P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Graded results

Games

W
Over 1.5 -185
WC · 1-1
W
Cardinals ML +108
MLB · 17-1
L
Colombia -1.5 +120
WC · 0-1
W
Under 2.5 -125
WC · 0-1
W
Red Sox ML -104
MLB · 5-2
W
Dodgers spread -115
MLB · 3-4
W
Blue Jays ML -134
MLB · 2-0
W
Marlins ML +120
MLB · 12-5
L
Diamondbacks ML +118
MLB · 7-4
L
Egypt ML +140
WC · 1-1

Props

L
Alec Burleson · under
Cardinals @ Cubs · Actual 7
W
Christian Yelich · under
Brewers @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1
L
Freddie Freeman · over
Padres @ Dodgers · Actual 1
W
Jarren Duran · under
Red Sox @ Angels · Actual 0
L
Jose Siri · under
Red Sox @ Angels · Actual 3
W
Kazuma Okamoto · over
Blue Jays @ Mariners · Actual 1
W
Ketel Marte · over
Brewers @ Diamondbacks · Actual 3
W
Lawrence Ati Zigi · over
Ghana @ Colombia · Actual 7
L
Luis Díaz · over
Ghana @ Colombia · Actual 0
W
Manny Machado · under
Padres @ Dodgers · Actual 0
L
Omar Marmoush · under
Egypt @ Australia · Actual 2
W
Otto Lopez · over
Marlins @ Athletics · Actual 3
L
Seiya Suzuki · over
Cardinals @ Cubs · Actual 0
W
Tyler Phillips · under
Marlins @ Athletics · Actual 10
W
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. · under
Blue Jays @ Mariners · Actual 1

Sports picks for Friday, July 3, 2026

Game picks

Egypt
Moneyline

Over 1.5
Total Goals

Cardinals
Moneyline

Colombia
-1.5

Under 2.5
Total Goals

Red Sox
Moneyline

Marlins
Moneyline

Diamondbacks
Moneyline

Dodgers

Blue Jays
Moneyline

Player props

Omar Marmoush
Shots under 1.5

Seiya Suzuki
H+R+RBI over 1.5

Alec Burleson
H+R+RBI under 1.5

Lawrence Ati Zigi
Saves over 4

Luis Díaz
Anytime Goal over 1

Jarren Duran
Hits under 0.5

Jose Siri
H+R+RBI under 0.5

Tyler Phillips
Pitcher Outs under 16.5

Otto Lopez
H+R+RBI over 2.5

Ketel Marte
H+R+RBI over 1.5

Christian Yelich
H+R+RBI under 1.5

Manny Machado
Hits under 0.5

Freddie Freeman
H+R+RBI over 1.5

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Total Bases under 1.5

Kazuma Okamoto
Hits over 0.5

Research

Graded results

Games

Props