Sports Picks Archive — Friday, June 19, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cubs· +102

Wrigley Field is bathed in afternoon sunshine as the breeze blows left-to-right at 11 mph, setting the stage for a compelling interleague clash between two squads fighting for wild-card positioning. The Cubs counter with their breakout rookie sensation, while the Blue Jays send their veteran ace to the mound. The market is pricing the Cubs as moderate home favorites (-120), but they are overpaying for a fragile number in Ben Brown’s shiny 1.74 ERA. While Brown’s actual run prevention has been spectacular, his 3.10 xERA and a vulnerable 4-seam fastball carrying a .411 xwOBA suggest that his margin for error is much thinner than the surface numbers indicate. The Blue Jays are built perfectly to exploit this, stacking a formidable array of left-handed bats like Nathan Lukes (.343 AVG vs. RHP), Yohendrick Pinango (.337 AVG vs. RHP), and Jesús Sánchez (.307 AVG vs. RHP). Sánchez already has a career history of success against Brown (.429 AVG), and this left-handed traffic will force Brown to work deep into counts, raising his pitch counts early and testing a weary Chicago bullpen. Gausman, on the other hand, is a seasoned workhorse whose 3.41 ERA actually beats his 3.24 xERA, showing he is a much more stable option. His signature splitter (38.9% whiff rate, 61.8% chase rate) matches up beautifully against a free-swinging Cubs offense that often struggles with vertical movement. Gausman can pitch deeper into games, which is a massive advantage today. The Cubs are dealing with a heavily taxed bullpen; active relievers Jacob Webb and Caleb Thielbar have pitched in two of the last three days, and Hoby Milner threw 25 pitches yesterday. With Chicago recently losing Daniel Palencia to a right elbow injury (placed on the IL just two days ago), the Cubs have no stable option in the ninth inning, whereas Toronto’s elite back-end duo of Tyler Rogers (1.80 ERA) and Louis Varland (0.90 ERA, 14 saves) are fully rested and ready to lock down the late innings. The strongest argument for the Cubs lies in their strong home record (22-16) and the spectacular form of Pete Crow-Armstrong, who enters with a 21-game on-base streak. If the Cubs can get Crow-Armstrong on base, his speed (16 stolen bases) can exploit Alejandro Kirk's weaker arm (15% caught-stealing rate). However, Crow-Armstrong sees a notable drop-off in afternoon games, hitting just .220 at home during the day compared to .310 at night. With the sun creating difficult mid-afternoon hitting conditions and Gausman's veteran poise neutralizing the home crowd, the Blue Jays have the clear advantage in starting pitching sustainability, platoon matchups, and late-inning bullpen health. Backing the Blue Jays at plus money (+102) is the sharp play.

The market is pricing the Cubs as moderate home favorites (-120), but they are overpaying for a fragile number in Ben Brown’s shiny 1.74 ERA. While Brown’s actual run prevention has been spectacular, his 3.10 xERA and a vulnerable 4-seam fastball carrying a .411 xwOBA suggest that his margin for error is much thinner than the surface numbers indicate. The Blue Jays are built perfectly to exploit this, stacking a formidable array of left-handed bats like Nathan Lukes (.343 AVG vs. RHP), Yohendrick Pinango (.337 AVG vs. RHP), and Jesús Sánchez (.307 AVG vs. RHP). Sánchez already has a career history of success against Brown (.429 AVG), and this left-handed traffic will force Brown to work deep into counts, raising his pitch counts early and testing a weary Chicago bullpen.

Gausman, on the other hand, is a seasoned workhorse whose 3.41 ERA actually beats his 3.24 xERA, showing he is a much more stable option. His signature splitter (38.9% whiff rate, 61.8% chase rate) matches up beautifully against a free-swinging Cubs offense that often struggles with vertical movement. Gausman can pitch deeper into games, which is a massive advantage today. The Cubs are dealing with a heavily taxed bullpen; active relievers Jacob Webb and Caleb Thielbar have pitched in two of the last three days, and Hoby Milner threw 25 pitches yesterday. With Chicago recently losing Daniel Palencia to a right elbow injury (placed on the IL just two days ago), the Cubs have no stable option in the ninth inning, whereas Toronto’s elite back-end duo of Tyler Rogers (1.80 ERA) and Louis Varland (0.90 ERA, 14 saves) are fully rested and ready to lock down the late innings.

The strongest argument for the Cubs lies in their strong home record (22-16) and the spectacular form of Pete Crow-Armstrong, who enters with a 21-game on-base streak. If the Cubs can get Crow-Armstrong on base, his speed (16 stolen bases) can exploit Alejandro Kirk's weaker arm (15% caught-stealing rate). However, Crow-Armstrong sees a notable drop-off in afternoon games, hitting just .220 at home during the day compared to .310 at night. With the sun creating difficult mid-afternoon hitting conditions and Gausman's veteran poise neutralizing the home crowd, the Blue Jays have the clear advantage in starting pitching sustainability, platoon matchups, and late-inning bullpen health. Backing the Blue Jays at plus money (+102) is the sharp play.

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GARY'S PICK

WCvs Australia· -160

With Christian Pulišić and Folarin Balogun fully available, the USA has the necessary firepower to break down Australia's defense in Seattle. Australia is severely depleted offensively, missing key playmakers Craig Goodwin and Mitchell Duke from their squad. This roster imbalance, combined with the USA's superior shot volume and home-country crowd, makes the USA moneyline the strongest play at -160.

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GARY'S PICK

WCAustralia @ USA· -110

While the market is overpaying for a fragile number on the Over 2.5 due to the USA's four-goal performance in their opener, this match projects to be much lower-scoring. Australia's compact, 'bend-but-don't-break' defense has conceded just 1.0 goal per match over their last 10 games, and their lack of offensive depth will prevent them from threatening a stout USA defense that allows only 0.54 xGA.

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GARY'S PICK

WC@ Scotland· -145

Scotland's tournament-ending injury to Billy Gilmour leaves an inexperienced midfield to face Morocco's elite engine room. Morocco will dominate possession (56% average) and starves Scotland's attack, exposing Scotland's fragile defensive structure (2.49 xGA per match) to secure a crucial three points.

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GARY'S PICK

WCMorocco @ Scotland· -160

With both teams missing key defensive anchors in Aguerd and McKenna, and Morocco starting backup keeper Mohamedi, both managers will adopt a risk-averse approach. Scotland will park the bus to protect their 3 points, while Morocco's elite defense (0.4 goals against average) keeps this match a low-scoring, tight affair.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Tigers· -126

Under the clear night skies of Comerica Park, the first-place Chicago White Sox battle the Detroit Tigers in an American League Central showdown. The market has priced the Tigers as heavy favorites (-205) due to the presence of Tarik Skubal, but the value is clearly on the White Sox at +1.5 (-125) in what shapes up to be an extremely tight, low-scoring game. Comerica Park has a highly pitcher-friendly park factor of 0.95 and is flanked by a calm 1 mph wind tonight, creating a massive margin for error that favors a low-scoring environment. While Skubal is a premier talent, his pitch volume remains heavily restricted as he builds back from elbow surgery (throwing only 4.2 innings on June 13). Once he departs, a fatigued Detroit bullpen must cover major innings. High-leverage setup man Kyle Finnegan is likely unavailable after throwing 49 pitches over the last three days, and Jacob Waguespack (33 pitches) is also spent, leaving high-ERA options like Will Vest (6.45 ERA) to secure the late frames. This late-game vulnerability matches up poorly against a rested and elite Chicago bullpen. The White Sox can bridge from bulk pitcher Erick Fedde (4.50 ERA) to premier high-leverage arms like Grant Taylor (2.21 ERA, 52 K in 36.2 IP) and Sean Newcomb (2.76 ERA) to suffocate Detroit’s hitters in the final third. Offensively, Chicago is well-equipped to attack Skubal’s reverse platoon splits (allowing a .359 AVG and .954 OPS to left-handed hitters) and his weak sinker (.586 xwOBA allowed). Leading off with righty lefty-killers Miguel Vargas (1.115 OPS vs. LHP) and Randal Grichuk (.987 OPS vs. LHP) followed by Colson Montgomery (.916 OPS vs. LHP), the Sox can manufacture enough runs early to put extreme pressure on Detroit’s fragile depth. The strongest counter-argument is that Detroit's left-handed bats, including Riley Greene (.295 AVG) and Kevin McGonigle (.282 AVG), are exceptional sinker hitters (.474 and .417 averages respectively) who can punish Fedde. However, the White Sox's defensive advantages behind the plate will limit Detroit’s aggressiveness; Edgar Quero possesses an elite 33.3% caught-stealing rate, whereas Dillon Dingler has been highly vulnerable at 20.5%. Backed by bullpen dominance and a 3-0 head-to-head edge in the season series, Chicago is primed to keep this margin within one run or win outright.

Under the clear night skies of Comerica Park, the first-place Chicago White Sox battle the Detroit Tigers in an American League Central showdown.

The market has priced the Tigers as heavy favorites (-205) due to the presence of Tarik Skubal, but the value is clearly on the White Sox at +1.5 (-125) in what shapes up to be an extremely tight, low-scoring game. Comerica Park has a highly pitcher-friendly park factor of 0.95 and is flanked by a calm 1 mph wind tonight, creating a massive margin for error that favors a low-scoring environment. While Skubal is a premier talent, his pitch volume remains heavily restricted as he builds back from elbow surgery (throwing only 4.2 innings on June 13). Once he departs, a fatigued Detroit bullpen must cover major innings. High-leverage setup man Kyle Finnegan is likely unavailable after throwing 49 pitches over the last three days, and Jacob Waguespack (33 pitches) is also spent, leaving high-ERA options like Will Vest (6.45 ERA) to secure the late frames.

This late-game vulnerability matches up poorly against a rested and elite Chicago bullpen. The White Sox can bridge from bulk pitcher Erick Fedde (4.50 ERA) to premier high-leverage arms like Grant Taylor (2.21 ERA, 52 K in 36.2 IP) and Sean Newcomb (2.76 ERA) to suffocate Detroit’s hitters in the final third. Offensively, Chicago is well-equipped to attack Skubal’s reverse platoon splits (allowing a .359 AVG and .954 OPS to left-handed hitters) and his weak sinker (.586 xwOBA allowed). Leading off with righty lefty-killers Miguel Vargas (1.115 OPS vs. LHP) and Randal Grichuk (.987 OPS vs. LHP) followed by Colson Montgomery (.916 OPS vs. LHP), the Sox can manufacture enough runs early to put extreme pressure on Detroit’s fragile depth.

The strongest counter-argument is that Detroit's left-handed bats, including Riley Greene (.295 AVG) and Kevin McGonigle (.282 AVG), are exceptional sinker hitters (.474 and .417 averages respectively) who can punish Fedde. However, the White Sox's defensive advantages behind the plate will limit Detroit’s aggressiveness; Edgar Quero possesses an elite 33.3% caught-stealing rate, whereas Dillon Dingler has been highly vulnerable at 20.5%. Backed by bullpen dominance and a 3-0 head-to-head edge in the season series, Chicago is primed to keep this margin within one run or win outright.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Reds· -126

Under the glowing twilight of the Bronx, a warm summer breeze sweeps across Yankee Stadium as the division-leading New York Yankees prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds in an intriguing interleague clash. While the market has set a steep price here with the Yankees at -275, this is a spot where the matchup advantages are so lopsided that paying the premium is entirely justified. The primary driver of this game is the starting pitching matchup, which features New York’s breakout star Cam Schlittler against Cincinnati's Rhett Lowder. Schlittler has been sensational with a 1.82 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, and tonight he gets to face a right-handed heavy Reds lineup that plays directly into his hands. Schlittler has utterly neutralized righties this season, holding them to a miniscule .171 AVG and a .465 OPS, making this a statistical nightmare for the six right-handed batters in Cincinnati's starting lineup. On the other side, Lowder enters with a 4.60 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and severe command issues, having issued 15 walks in his last 13 innings. This lack of control is a recipe for disaster tonight given the extreme weather and stadium conditions. The temperature is a warm 81°F with a 14 mph wind blowing straight out to right field—a massive benefit for left-handed pull hitters targeting Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch. The Yankees have loaded their lineup with six left-handed hitters and one switch-hitter to exploit this environment. Since Lowder has a pronounced reverse-platoon split—allowing a .747 OPS and all three of his home runs this season to left-handed batters—he is highly likely to yield multiple home runs if he continues his high-walk trend. The strongest counter-argument to backing the Yankees is their steep price tag, especially with key players currently sidelined. However, the Yankees have already proven their depth, winning 8 of their last 10 games, and they possess a reliable late-inning security blanket. Fernando Cruz (2.25 ERA) and closer David Bednar (3.64 ERA) are both fully rested and available. The Reds' bullpen is severely compromised, leaving them forced to rely on vulnerable middle-relief options like Tony Santillan (5.46 ERA) if Lowder gets knocked out early. With the Yankees holding the upper hand in starting pitching, platoon advantage, weather synergy, and bullpen depth, New York is the only logical side to back.

On the other side, Lowder enters with a 4.60 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and severe command issues, having issued 15 walks in his last 13 innings. This lack of control is a recipe for disaster tonight given the extreme weather and stadium conditions. The temperature is a warm 81°F with a 14 mph wind blowing straight out to right field—a massive benefit for left-handed pull hitters targeting Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch. The Yankees have loaded their lineup with six left-handed hitters and one switch-hitter to exploit this environment. Since Lowder has a pronounced reverse-platoon split—allowing a .747 OPS and all three of his home runs this season to left-handed batters—he is highly likely to yield multiple home runs if he continues his high-walk trend.

The strongest counter-argument to backing the Yankees is their steep price tag, especially with key players currently sidelined. However, the Yankees have already proven their depth, winning 8 of their last 10 games, and they possess a reliable late-inning security blanket. Fernando Cruz (2.25 ERA) and closer David Bednar (3.64 ERA) are both fully rested and available. The Reds' bullpen is severely compromised, leaving them forced to rely on vulnerable middle-relief options like Tony Santillan (5.46 ERA) if Lowder gets knocked out early. With the Yankees holding the upper hand in starting pitching, platoon advantage, weather synergy, and bullpen depth, New York is the only logical side to back.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Marlins· -104

A battle under the closed roof of loanDepot park features a captivating matchup tonight as the high-contact San Francisco Giants clash with the surging Miami Marlins in the opener of a three-game weekend set. While the market has established the hosting Marlins as slight favorites based on their recent hot streak, the value lies squarely with the visitors in what represents a textbook starting pitching and bullpen availability mismatch. The load-bearing reason to back San Francisco tonight is the stark contrast in pitching depth. Landen Roupp gives the Giants a traditional starter capable of going deep into the game, and his 4.24 ERA is a fragile number that understates his actual quality compared to his superb 3.36 xERA and .289 xwOBA. Roupp’s curveball is an elite weapon featuring a 42.1% whiff rate and 52.6% chase rate, allowing him to neutralize hitters. Conversely, the Marlins are forced to run a bullpen game with opener Lake Bachar, who has never exceeded 3.0 innings in any start this season. This forces a heavily taxed Marlins relief corps to cover 6 to 7 innings. With key long reliever Tyler Phillips unavailable after throwing 79 pitches three days ago, and closer Pete Fairbanks struggling with a bloated 6.75 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, Miami's bullpen is highly vulnerable. The strongest argument against the Giants is Miami’s recent momentum, as they enter with an 11-4 record in their last 15 games and a strong 23-16 home record. However, the Giants’ lineup is perfectly constructed to neutralize this momentum and grind down Miami's pitching. San Francisco’s left-handed core of Luis Arraez (.337 vs. RHP), Bryce Eldridge (.303 vs. RHP with a 22-game on-base streak), and Rafael Devers boast a highly disciplined 17.3% team whiff rate over their last three games. They will work deep counts, exploit Bachar, and force a tired Marlins bullpen into early action. Combined with a fresh Giants bullpen featuring Caleb Kilian (3.06 ERA), San Francisco has the depth and patience to secure a road victory at a very attractive price.

The load-bearing reason to back San Francisco tonight is the stark contrast in pitching depth. Landen Roupp gives the Giants a traditional starter capable of going deep into the game, and his 4.24 ERA is a fragile number that understates his actual quality compared to his superb 3.36 xERA and .289 xwOBA. Roupp’s curveball is an elite weapon featuring a 42.1% whiff rate and 52.6% chase rate, allowing him to neutralize hitters. Conversely, the Marlins are forced to run a bullpen game with opener Lake Bachar, who has never exceeded 3.0 innings in any start this season. This forces a heavily taxed Marlins relief corps to cover 6 to 7 innings. With key long reliever Tyler Phillips unavailable after throwing 79 pitches three days ago, and closer Pete Fairbanks struggling with a bloated 6.75 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, Miami's bullpen is highly vulnerable.

The strongest argument against the Giants is Miami’s recent momentum, as they enter with an 11-4 record in their last 15 games and a strong 23-16 home record. However, the Giants’ lineup is perfectly constructed to neutralize this momentum and grind down Miami's pitching. San Francisco’s left-handed core of Luis Arraez (.337 vs. RHP), Bryce Eldridge (.303 vs. RHP with a 22-game on-base streak), and Rafael Devers boast a highly disciplined 17.3% team whiff rate over their last three games. They will work deep counts, exploit Bachar, and force a tired Marlins bullpen into early action. Combined with a fresh Giants bullpen featuring Caleb Kilian (3.06 ERA), San Francisco has the depth and patience to secure a road victory at a very attractive price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Nationals· -154

We are live under the dome at Tropicana Field, where the high-flying Washington Nationals look to keep their road magic alive against a powerhouse Tampa Bay Rays squad looking to defend their turf. This matchup has been completely turned on its head following the late scratch of Cade Cavalli due to illness, forcing the Nationals into an unplanned bullpen game started by PJ Poulin. While Poulin's actual 3.29 ERA looks stable on the surface, his under-the-hood metrics are a flashing warning sign, highlighted by a dreadful 6.15 xERA and a 51.2% hard-hit rate allowed. Compounding matters is Poulin’s extreme vulnerability to right-handed hitters, who are crushing him to the tune of a .269 AVG and .859 OPS. The Rays are perfectly constructed to exploit this immediately, stacking right-handers like Yandy Díaz (.317 AVG, .900 OPS, and a monstrous 1.075 home OPS) and Junior Caminero (15 HR, .991 home OPS) at the top of their lineup. Once Poulin is chased, the burden of covering seven-plus innings falls on a highly vulnerable Nationals relief corps. Gus Varland, who has a 5.20 ERA and 1.66 WHIP, has already thrown 43 pitches over two of the last four days, while primary setup man Richard Lovelady carries a dangerous 1.81 WHIP despite his low ERA. Conversely, the Rays can trust Griffin Jax, who has allowed only one run over his last 10.0 innings, and back him up with a rested bullpen anchored by shutdown closer Bryan Baker (1.91 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 18 saves). The market's valuation of this game seems to overemphasize Washington's impressive road record and recent series wins, but they are paying for a highly fragile pitching situation tonight that is missing its top starting depth. The strongest argument against the Rays is their recent slump, having lost three straight games during a road trip, combined with Griffin Jax's own struggles against lefties (.796 OPS allowed) which a heavy-LHB Nationals order will look to exploit. However, returning to their home turf—where the Rays are a dominant 24-9—provides a major defensive cushion. The Trop's fast artificial turf and run-suppressing dimensions will protect Jax while exposing Washington’s shaky defense (62 errors on the season, including CJ Abrams' -9 Outs Above Average at shortstop). Backed by an elite infield defense and a clinical, rested bullpen, the Rays are priced beautifully to halt their slide and take advantage of Washington's sudden rotation emergency.

Once Poulin is chased, the burden of covering seven-plus innings falls on a highly vulnerable Nationals relief corps. Gus Varland, who has a 5.20 ERA and 1.66 WHIP, has already thrown 43 pitches over two of the last four days, while primary setup man Richard Lovelady carries a dangerous 1.81 WHIP despite his low ERA. Conversely, the Rays can trust Griffin Jax, who has allowed only one run over his last 10.0 innings, and back him up with a rested bullpen anchored by shutdown closer Bryan Baker (1.91 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 18 saves). The market's valuation of this game seems to overemphasize Washington's impressive road record and recent series wins, but they are paying for a highly fragile pitching situation tonight that is missing its top starting depth.

The strongest argument against the Rays is their recent slump, having lost three straight games during a road trip, combined with Griffin Jax's own struggles against lefties (.796 OPS allowed) which a heavy-LHB Nationals order will look to exploit. However, returning to their home turf—where the Rays are a dominant 24-9—provides a major defensive cushion. The Trop's fast artificial turf and run-suppressing dimensions will protect Jax while exposing Washington’s shaky defense (62 errors on the season, including CJ Abrams' -9 Outs Above Average at shortstop). Backed by an elite infield defense and a clinical, rested bullpen, the Rays are priced beautifully to halt their slide and take advantage of Washington's sudden rotation emergency.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Braves· -172

Under the warm southern skies of Truist Park, the National League’s elite collide tonight as the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers roll into Atlanta to challenge the Braves. This series opener presents a fascinating clash of trajectories, but the ultimate deciding factor resides on the mound, where the pure stuff of Jacob Misiorowski gives the visiting Brewers an immense head start. The load-bearing reason to back Milwaukee is the staggering pitching disparity. Jacob Misiorowski is putting together a historic campaign, sitting at 8-2 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.74 WHIP. Armed with a 100.1 mph average fastball, the rookie is coming off a 15-strikeout complete game and matches up perfectly against an Atlanta lineup that was just dealt a fresh blow with Michael Harris II scratched due to back issues. Misiorowski holds left-handed batters to a microscopic .108 average and .362 OPS, effectively neutralizing Atlanta's primary left-handed threats like Matt Olson and Drake Baldwin. On the other side, Martín Pérez enters with a 2.90 ERA, but his 4.02 xERA indicates the market is overpaying for a fragile number. His 90.2 mph fastball is ten ticks slower than Misiorowski's, and his career 8.54 ERA against the Brewers suggests they see him exceptionally well. With 83°F heat and wind blowing out to left field, the environment is ripe for right-handed sluggers like Andrew Vaughn and Jackson Chourio to punish his high-contact style. The sharpest argument against Milwaukee is the rested state of the Braves' elite bullpen, featuring Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias who have not pitched since June 16. If Pérez can somehow survive five innings and hand over a lead, Atlanta’s late-inning tandem is nearly automatic. However, given Pérez's historical struggles against Milwaukee and the Brewers' active six-game winning streak at Truist Park, the chances of Pérez holding down this healthy, left-handed-mashing Brewers lineup are slim. Misiorowski should dictate the terms of this game from the first pitch, making the Brewers the clear side to back.

The load-bearing reason to back Milwaukee is the staggering pitching disparity. Jacob Misiorowski is putting together a historic campaign, sitting at 8-2 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.74 WHIP. Armed with a 100.1 mph average fastball, the rookie is coming off a 15-strikeout complete game and matches up perfectly against an Atlanta lineup that was just dealt a fresh blow with Michael Harris II scratched due to back issues. Misiorowski holds left-handed batters to a microscopic .108 average and .362 OPS, effectively neutralizing Atlanta's primary left-handed threats like Matt Olson and Drake Baldwin. On the other side, Martín Pérez enters with a 2.90 ERA, but his 4.02 xERA indicates the market is overpaying for a fragile number. His 90.2 mph fastball is ten ticks slower than Misiorowski's, and his career 8.54 ERA against the Brewers suggests they see him exceptionally well. With 83°F heat and wind blowing out to left field, the environment is ripe for right-handed sluggers like Andrew Vaughn and Jackson Chourio to punish his high-contact style.

The sharpest argument against Milwaukee is the rested state of the Braves' elite bullpen, featuring Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias who have not pitched since June 16. If Pérez can somehow survive five innings and hand over a lead, Atlanta’s late-inning tandem is nearly automatic. However, given Pérez's historical struggles against Milwaukee and the Brewers' active six-game winning streak at Truist Park, the chances of Pérez holding down this healthy, left-handed-mashing Brewers lineup are slim. Misiorowski should dictate the terms of this game from the first pitch, making the Brewers the clear side to back.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Padres· -166

Under the glowing roof of Globe Life Field, a marquee interleague clash takes center stage tonight as the Texas Rangers look to arrest their recent slide against the San Diego Padres. It is a high-stakes Friday night in Arlington, and all eyes are on the mound where birthday boy Jacob deGrom looks to play the role of ultimate stopper. With Texas mired in a slump having dropped five of their last six games, turning to deGrom on his 38th birthday is exactly the shot of adrenaline this clubhouse needs. The veteran ace has been in spectacular form, permitting only two total runs over his last three starts spanning 17.0 innings. The Padres’ offense enters this matchup completely cold, ranking dead last in the majors in wRC+ over the past 30 days. Furthermore, deGrom’s reverse platoon splits—holding left-handed hitters to a meager .198 average and .629 OPS—completely neutralize San Diego’s middle-of-the-order threats. The strongest case against backing Texas tonight is their recent form and the confirmed absence of franchise shortstop Corey Seager due to concussion protocol. The Rangers' bats have struggled during their losing streak, and the Padres have a major boost with elite closer Mason Miller returning from the bereavement list. However, Miller only matters if San Diego can secure a late-inning lead, which looks highly unlikely against a locked-in deGrom. The market seems to be overpaying for a fragile number with Padres starter Randy Vásquez. While Vásquez boasts a serviceable 3.63 ERA, his underlying xERA sits at a staggering 6.23, indicating immense luck that is ripe for regression. Vásquez allows a 13% barrel rate and a 46.1% hard-hit rate, and his inability to complete more than six innings in his last five starts means the Padres will have to rely heavily on middle relief. Texas's lineup is perfectly optimized to exploit Vásquez’s high-barrel, fly-ball tendencies. Power threats like Jake Burger—who is red-hot, hitting .382 with two home runs over his last 10 games—and Josh Jung (.365 average and .999 OPS at home) match up beautifully against Vásquez’s pitch mix. Defensively, the Rangers also boast a major stability advantage at catcher, where Elias Diaz has been highly efficient, whereas the Padres are forced to start Rodolfo Duran and his .159 batting average due to injuries. Trust the birthday ace to control the game from the opening pitch and carry the Rangers to a crucial victory.

The strongest case against backing Texas tonight is their recent form and the confirmed absence of franchise shortstop Corey Seager due to concussion protocol. The Rangers' bats have struggled during their losing streak, and the Padres have a major boost with elite closer Mason Miller returning from the bereavement list. However, Miller only matters if San Diego can secure a late-inning lead, which looks highly unlikely against a locked-in deGrom. The market seems to be overpaying for a fragile number with Padres starter Randy Vásquez. While Vásquez boasts a serviceable 3.63 ERA, his underlying xERA sits at a staggering 6.23, indicating immense luck that is ripe for regression. Vásquez allows a 13% barrel rate and a 46.1% hard-hit rate, and his inability to complete more than six innings in his last five starts means the Padres will have to rely heavily on middle relief.

Texas's lineup is perfectly optimized to exploit Vásquez’s high-barrel, fly-ball tendencies. Power threats like Jake Burger—who is red-hot, hitting .382 with two home runs over his last 10 games—and Josh Jung (.365 average and .999 OPS at home) match up beautifully against Vásquez’s pitch mix. Defensively, the Rangers also boast a major stability advantage at catcher, where Elias Diaz has been highly efficient, whereas the Padres are forced to start Rodolfo Duran and his .159 batting average due to injuries. Trust the birthday ace to control the game from the opening pitch and carry the Rangers to a crucial victory.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Guardians· -124

Welcome to Daikin Park, where a battle under the closed roof tonight features a crucial American League clash between the division-leading Cleveland Guardians and a surging Houston Astros squad looking to defend their home turf. The value on the board is on the Houston moneyline at -124, primarily driven by a catastrophic wave of fresh injuries that has completely gutted the visiting lineup. The Guardians are forced to take the field without their franchise cornerstone José Ramírez, who underwent surgery on June 16, while also losing high-upside outfielders Chase DeLauter and Angel Martinez to the injured list in the last 72 hours. This leaves a massive offensive void that Cleveland is ill-equipped to fill. On the other side, Tanner Bibee is running into a terrible situational spot. He has struggled on the road this season with a 4.54 road ERA and owns a heavy fly-ball profile (0.78 GO/AO). Allowing a high 45.1% hard-hit rate and a 10.2% barrel rate, Bibee's tendencies are incredibly dangerous in Daikin Park. Houston is sending out seven right-handed batters to exploit Bibee’s weaker reverse-platoon splits, and they feature a scorching Yordan Alvarez (.325 AVG, 24 HR, 1.070 OPS) who is custom-built to punish Bibee's heavy fastball-sinker mix. The obvious objection here is that Astros starter Tatsuya Imai is a massive wild card, carrying a bloated 6.43 ERA and coming off a start where he recorded only two outs. Cleveland’s strategy of stacking seven left-handed/switch-hitters is designed to target Imai’s weak .831 opponent OPS split against lefties. However, with the Guardians missing their premier run-producers, they simply lack the firepower to break a game wide open. Furthermore, the Astros' bullpen enters fully rested with Josh Hader (1.29 ERA) leading the charge, whereas Cleveland's key late-inning arms have been heavily overtaxed this week. If Imai runs into early trouble, Houston has the rested relief depth to pull him immediately and choke out Cleveland's compromised offense. Back the home team to take care of business tonight.

The value on the board is on the Houston moneyline at -124, primarily driven by a catastrophic wave of fresh injuries that has completely gutted the visiting lineup. The Guardians are forced to take the field without their franchise cornerstone José Ramírez, who underwent surgery on June 16, while also losing high-upside outfielders Chase DeLauter and Angel Martinez to the injured list in the last 72 hours. This leaves a massive offensive void that Cleveland is ill-equipped to fill. On the other side, Tanner Bibee is running into a terrible situational spot. He has struggled on the road this season with a 4.54 road ERA and owns a heavy fly-ball profile (0.78 GO/AO). Allowing a high 45.1% hard-hit rate and a 10.2% barrel rate, Bibee's tendencies are incredibly dangerous in Daikin Park. Houston is sending out seven right-handed batters to exploit Bibee’s weaker reverse-platoon splits, and they feature a scorching Yordan Alvarez (.325 AVG, 24 HR, 1.070 OPS) who is custom-built to punish Bibee's heavy fastball-sinker mix.

The obvious objection here is that Astros starter Tatsuya Imai is a massive wild card, carrying a bloated 6.43 ERA and coming off a start where he recorded only two outs. Cleveland’s strategy of stacking seven left-handed/switch-hitters is designed to target Imai’s weak .831 opponent OPS split against lefties. However, with the Guardians missing their premier run-producers, they simply lack the firepower to break a game wide open. Furthermore, the Astros' bullpen enters fully rested with Josh Hader (1.29 ERA) leading the charge, whereas Cleveland's key late-inning arms have been heavily overtaxed this week. If Imai runs into early trouble, Houston has the rested relief depth to pull him immediately and choke out Cleveland's compromised offense. Back the home team to take care of business tonight.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Royals· -120

Under the warm evening lights at Kauffman Stadium, the I-70 Series heats up as the St. Louis Cardinals look to avenge last night's blowout against a heavily depleted Kansas City Royals squad. While the Royals rode a historic offensive wave yesterday, the price of that victory was catastrophic. With superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. sidelined by right knee soreness and third baseman Maikel Garcia out with a hand injury, the Royals are missing their defensive and offensive engine. This sudden void leaves their infield defense exceptionally fragile on the left side, presenting a soft target for a disciplined Cardinals lineup. The market has priced this game as a near-coin flip, but they are overpaying for a fragile Royals team that is missing roughly 60% of its projected season-opening value. The Cardinals' offense is built perfectly to exploit Kansas City's weaknesses tonight. St. Louis has stacked five left-handed hitters to neutralize right-hander Seth Lugo, who has struggled significantly against lefties this season, allowing a .284 AVG. Lugo is returning from the concussion injured list and will face immediate pressure from Cardinals sluggers like Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson, the latter of whom boasts a career .333 AVG against Lugo. Furthermore, Lugo's reliance on burying his 75.9 mph curveball in the dirt becomes a massive liability with rookie catcher Carter Jensen behind the plate. Jensen ranks in the 1st percentile in blocking with -8 Blocks Above Average, meaning any errant breaking ball with runners on base carries a high risk of transforming into free bases for the Cardinals. The strongest case against St. Louis lies in their bullpen fatigue. After giving up 14 runs yesterday, the Cardinals burned several key relievers, with Matthew Liberatore throwing 48 pitches, Gordon Graceffo throwing 47 pitches, and Justin Bruihl throwing 39 pitches. If Michael McGreevy exits early, St. Louis will be forced to navigate high-stress middle innings with heavily fatigued arms. However, the Royals’ highly diluted, bottom-heavy lineup is ill-equipped to knock McGreevy out early. McGreevy has balanced platoon splits (.235 AVG vs. LHB, .231 AVG vs. RHB) to counter Kansas City's lefties, and he will benefit from Jordan Walker's middle-of-the-order presence (18 HR, 56 RBIs). Expect the Cardinals' positional health and tactical matchups to carry them to a decisive bounce-back win at a very reasonable price.

The Cardinals' offense is built perfectly to exploit Kansas City's weaknesses tonight. St. Louis has stacked five left-handed hitters to neutralize right-hander Seth Lugo, who has struggled significantly against lefties this season, allowing a .284 AVG. Lugo is returning from the concussion injured list and will face immediate pressure from Cardinals sluggers like Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson, the latter of whom boasts a career .333 AVG against Lugo. Furthermore, Lugo's reliance on burying his 75.9 mph curveball in the dirt becomes a massive liability with rookie catcher Carter Jensen behind the plate. Jensen ranks in the 1st percentile in blocking with -8 Blocks Above Average, meaning any errant breaking ball with runners on base carries a high risk of transforming into free bases for the Cardinals.

The strongest case against St. Louis lies in their bullpen fatigue. After giving up 14 runs yesterday, the Cardinals burned several key relievers, with Matthew Liberatore throwing 48 pitches, Gordon Graceffo throwing 47 pitches, and Justin Bruihl throwing 39 pitches. If Michael McGreevy exits early, St. Louis will be forced to navigate high-stress middle innings with heavily fatigued arms. However, the Royals’ highly diluted, bottom-heavy lineup is ill-equipped to knock McGreevy out early. McGreevy has balanced platoon splits (.235 AVG vs. LHB, .231 AVG vs. RHB) to counter Kansas City's lefties, and he will benefit from Jordan Walker's middle-of-the-order presence (18 HR, 56 RBIs). Expect the Cardinals' positional health and tactical matchups to carry them to a decisive bounce-back win at a very reasonable price.

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MLB@ Rockies· -136

The high-altitude drama of Coors Field takes center stage tonight as the Pittsburgh Pirates kick off a crucial three-game weekend series against the Colorado Rockies in 86-degree weather. This matchup is defined by a massive chasm on the mound, and at a moneyline of -136, the market is severely underpricing a superior Pittsburgh squad. The Rockies send a struggling Kyle Freeland to the hill, who has pitched his way to a disastrous 7.98 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. Over his last five starts, Freeland has surrendered 25 earned runs and 40 hits in just 25.0 innings. In the hitter-friendly 1.28 park factor of Denver, throwing a soft-tossing lefty who has allowed right-handed hitters to slash .335 with a .983 OPS and 13 home runs this season is a recipe for an immediate blowout. The Pirates' offense is tailor-made to exploit Freeland's right-handed kryptonite. Bryan Reynolds is currently tearing the cover off the ball, hitting .375 with four home runs over his last ten games, and he is flanked by righty-mashing sluggers who will feast on Freeland's low-velocity sinkers and cutters. While the market might be hesitant to lay juice on a road team at Coors Field, Pittsburgh starting pitcher Bubba Chandler is built to withstand the altitude. Chandler possesses high-octane heat, averaging 98.4 mph on his 4-seam fastball and 97.8 mph on his sinker, giving him the raw velocity needed to generate misses when breaking pitches lose their bite. Over his last two starts, the rookie has allowed just four hits and four earned runs while striking out 13 over 11.0 innings, showing a strong upward trajectory. The case against Pittsburgh rests on the sheer variance of Coors Field and the Rockies' speed-heavy offense featuring Jake McCarthy (.289 AVG) and Willi Castro, who can run on a vulnerable Pirates catcher. However, the Rockies' bullpen is far too weak to protect any lead, with high-leverage arms like Victor Vodnik carrying a 7.78 ERA and Zach Agnos holding a 7.29 ERA. In contrast, Pittsburgh can rely on a dominant late-inning option in Gregory Soto, who has locked things down with a 3.16 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. With the Rockies missing key outfielders and pitching depth due to injuries, the competitive gap between these teams is massive. Back the Pirates to take care of business at a highly favorable price.

The Pirates' offense is tailor-made to exploit Freeland's right-handed kryptonite. Bryan Reynolds is currently tearing the cover off the ball, hitting .375 with four home runs over his last ten games, and he is flanked by righty-mashing sluggers who will feast on Freeland's low-velocity sinkers and cutters. While the market might be hesitant to lay juice on a road team at Coors Field, Pittsburgh starting pitcher Bubba Chandler is built to withstand the altitude. Chandler possesses high-octane heat, averaging 98.4 mph on his 4-seam fastball and 97.8 mph on his sinker, giving him the raw velocity needed to generate misses when breaking pitches lose their bite. Over his last two starts, the rookie has allowed just four hits and four earned runs while striking out 13 over 11.0 innings, showing a strong upward trajectory.

The case against Pittsburgh rests on the sheer variance of Coors Field and the Rockies' speed-heavy offense featuring Jake McCarthy (.289 AVG) and Willi Castro, who can run on a vulnerable Pirates catcher. However, the Rockies' bullpen is far too weak to protect any lead, with high-leverage arms like Victor Vodnik carrying a 7.78 ERA and Zach Agnos holding a 7.29 ERA. In contrast, Pittsburgh can rely on a dominant late-inning option in Gregory Soto, who has locked things down with a 3.16 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. With the Rockies missing key outfielders and pitching depth due to injuries, the competitive gap between these teams is massive. Back the Pirates to take care of business at a highly favorable price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Angels· -162

A warm evening breeze sweeps across Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento as the surging Athletics host their division rivals, the reeling Los Angeles Angels. The massive elephant in the room is the fresh absence of Angels superstar Mike Trout, who was placed on the 10-day injured list yesterday with a right hamstring strain. Trout was leading the American League with 54 runs and had 17 home runs, and the offense immediately cratered without him in yesterday’s series opener, managing only one hit through seven innings in a 5-0 shutout defeat. With Christian Moore recalled to take his place, this depleted offense lacks any protection for its remaining hitters and is poorly equipped to sustain pressure tonight. At first glance, the starting pitching matchup might tempt you to look at the Angels as underdogs, with José Soriano sporting a shiny 2.79 ERA compared to Jeffrey Springs’ bloated 5.13 ERA. However, the market has rightfully priced the Athletics as heavy favorites (-162) because Soriano’s numbers are highly fragile. His 4.10 xERA compared to his actual ERA shows the market is overpaying for a fragile number, especially considering he has walked 16 batters over his last 27.1 innings (5.3 BB/9). Conversely, Springs’ 4.13 xERA indicates he has run into terrible luck, particularly in Sacramento where his 5.76 home ERA has been heavily inflated by giving up 19 home runs. While the 11 mph wind blowing straight out to center field tonight is a massive threat to Springs' extreme fly-ball profile (0.73 GO/AO), Soriano's ground-ball success (1.43 GO/AO) is fundamentally undermined by an error-prone Angels infield that has committed 48 errors this season. Soriano's high walk rate will be exploited by a patient, lefty-heavy Oakland lineup that features Nick Kurtz, who has a 1.070 OPS against right-handed pitchers. The ultimate tiebreaker lies in the head-to-head individual history, where Oakland's hitters absolutely own Soriano. Shea Langeliers is hitting .545 with two home runs and a 1.765 OPS against him, while Zack Gelof is hitting .667 against him, entering tonight on a historic 22-game hitting streak. Behind the plate, Langeliers is also an elite defensive run preventer with a 48.1% caught stealing rate, completely shutting down any run game the Angels might try to manufacture. With a substantial bullpen advantage anchored by Hogan Harris (3.03 ERA) to protect a lead late, while the Angels rely on a struggling Jordan Romano (10.13 ERA), the Athletics are in a prime position to build on their 4-1 head-to-head season series lead. Lay the price with the A's on the moneyline as they push closer to the AL West lead.

At first glance, the starting pitching matchup might tempt you to look at the Angels as underdogs, with José Soriano sporting a shiny 2.79 ERA compared to Jeffrey Springs’ bloated 5.13 ERA. However, the market has rightfully priced the Athletics as heavy favorites (-162) because Soriano’s numbers are highly fragile. His 4.10 xERA compared to his actual ERA shows the market is overpaying for a fragile number, especially considering he has walked 16 batters over his last 27.1 innings (5.3 BB/9). Conversely, Springs’ 4.13 xERA indicates he has run into terrible luck, particularly in Sacramento where his 5.76 home ERA has been heavily inflated by giving up 19 home runs. While the 11 mph wind blowing straight out to center field tonight is a massive threat to Springs' extreme fly-ball profile (0.73 GO/AO), Soriano's ground-ball success (1.43 GO/AO) is fundamentally undermined by an error-prone Angels infield that has committed 48 errors this season. Soriano's high walk rate will be exploited by a patient, lefty-heavy Oakland lineup that features Nick Kurtz, who has a 1.070 OPS against right-handed pitchers.

The ultimate tiebreaker lies in the head-to-head individual history, where Oakland's hitters absolutely own Soriano. Shea Langeliers is hitting .545 with two home runs and a 1.765 OPS against him, while Zack Gelof is hitting .667 against him, entering tonight on a historic 22-game hitting streak. Behind the plate, Langeliers is also an elite defensive run preventer with a 48.1% caught stealing rate, completely shutting down any run game the Angels might try to manufacture. With a substantial bullpen advantage anchored by Hogan Harris (3.03 ERA) to protect a lead late, while the Angels rely on a struggling Jordan Romano (10.13 ERA), the Athletics are in a prime position to build on their 4-1 head-to-head season series lead. Lay the price with the A's on the moneyline as they push closer to the AL West lead.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Twins· -168

The roof is closed over the desert floor tonight at Chase Field as the surging Arizona Diamondbacks host the Minnesota Twins in a compelling Friday night interleague showdown. With the host Diamondbacks positioned as solid -168 home favorites on the moneyline, the value lies entirely on the desert side of this matchup. The primary driver of this decision is the massive starting pitching mismatch on the mound. Michael Soroka has been pitching in elite, shutdown form, posting a 2.53 ERA over his last five starts with 24 strikeouts and only three walks across 32.0 innings. Soroka’s elite command and primary slurve (generating a 32.4% whiff rate) match up perfectly against the Twins' right-handed power. He has absolutely erased righties this season, holding them to a staggering .171 batting average and .477 OPS, which minimizes the threat of Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis. Contrast that with Minnesota's rookie left-hander Connor Prielipp, who has been hammered to the tune of a 7.66 ERA and 11 walks over his last five starts. Prielipp relies on a vulnerable four-seam fastball that opponents are batting .302 against, making him highly susceptible to an early exit against an Arizona lineup that features Corbin Carroll, who has destroyed lefties with a 1.112 OPS. Beyond the starting pitching, the bullpen availability and defensive infrastructure overwhelmingly favor Arizona. The Diamondbacks enjoyed an off-day yesterday, meaning high-leverage late-inning arms like Paul Sewald and Jonathan Loaisiga are fully rested and ready. Conversely, Minnesota’s bullpen is heavily taxed after a busy stretch where Taylor Rogers, Andrew Morris, Eric Orze, and Cody Laweryson all pitched yesterday. If Prielipp is forced into an early exit, Minnesota's tired middle relief will have to eat innings. This problem is compounded behind the plate; with Ryan Jeffers recently sidelined with a hand injury, backup catcher Victor Caratini has been a defensive liability, allowing 39 stolen bases at a weak 15% caught-stealing rate. Expect Carroll and the speedy Diamondbacks to run wild on the basepaths, stretching an already vulnerable Twins defense that has committed 44 errors this season. The strongest argument against the Diamondbacks is Minnesota's current four-game winning streak and hot offensive form. While the Twins' offense has been potent, Byron Buxton’s road splits drop significantly with a road OPS of .747, and he has struggled in clutch situations, going 0-for-24 with runners in scoring position and two outs. Furthermore, while the market might see Soroka's 3.11 season ERA as slightly outrunning his 3.80 xERA, he is in peak physical form right now and gets the ultimate support of a stellar defense with a .990 fielding percentage. Backed by a rested bullpen and playing in their dominant home environment, the Diamondbacks are primed to neutralize the Twins' momentum and secure a comfortable victory.

The primary driver of this decision is the massive starting pitching mismatch on the mound. Michael Soroka has been pitching in elite, shutdown form, posting a 2.53 ERA over his last five starts with 24 strikeouts and only three walks across 32.0 innings. Soroka’s elite command and primary slurve (generating a 32.4% whiff rate) match up perfectly against the Twins' right-handed power. He has absolutely erased righties this season, holding them to a staggering .171 batting average and .477 OPS, which minimizes the threat of Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis. Contrast that with Minnesota's rookie left-hander Connor Prielipp, who has been hammered to the tune of a 7.66 ERA and 11 walks over his last five starts. Prielipp relies on a vulnerable four-seam fastball that opponents are batting .302 against, making him highly susceptible to an early exit against an Arizona lineup that features Corbin Carroll, who has destroyed lefties with a 1.112 OPS.

Beyond the starting pitching, the bullpen availability and defensive infrastructure overwhelmingly favor Arizona. The Diamondbacks enjoyed an off-day yesterday, meaning high-leverage late-inning arms like Paul Sewald and Jonathan Loaisiga are fully rested and ready. Conversely, Minnesota’s bullpen is heavily taxed after a busy stretch where Taylor Rogers, Andrew Morris, Eric Orze, and Cody Laweryson all pitched yesterday. If Prielipp is forced into an early exit, Minnesota's tired middle relief will have to eat innings. This problem is compounded behind the plate; with Ryan Jeffers recently sidelined with a hand injury, backup catcher Victor Caratini has been a defensive liability, allowing 39 stolen bases at a weak 15% caught-stealing rate. Expect Carroll and the speedy Diamondbacks to run wild on the basepaths, stretching an already vulnerable Twins defense that has committed 44 errors this season.

The strongest argument against the Diamondbacks is Minnesota's current four-game winning streak and hot offensive form. While the Twins' offense has been potent, Byron Buxton’s road splits drop significantly with a road OPS of .747, and he has struggled in clutch situations, going 0-for-24 with runners in scoring position and two outs. Furthermore, while the market might see Soroka's 3.11 season ERA as slightly outrunning his 3.80 xERA, he is in peak physical form right now and gets the ultimate support of a stellar defense with a .990 fielding percentage. Backed by a rested bullpen and playing in their dominant home environment, the Diamondbacks are primed to neutralize the Twins' momentum and secure a comfortable victory.

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MLBvs Red Sox· -112

A chilly night in the Pacific Northwest welcomes us to T-Mobile Park, where the first-place Seattle Mariners look to protect their division lead against a reeling Boston Red Sox squad trying to snap a four-game skid. This series opener revolves around Seattle’s unique pitching architecture, which utilizes a "piggyback" tandem of Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo. Bryce Miller has been nearly untouchable with a 1.54 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP, and he hands off to Luis Castillo, who has blossomed out of the bullpen in this specific role, holding a 2.38 ERA and an elite .132 batting average against. Boston's offense has struggled with plate discipline lately, chasing at a 34.8% rate over their last three games, which plays directly into Miller's precise command (only 5 walks in 35.0 innings) and Castillo's high-velocity stuff. Beyond the mound, the Mariners have a direct tactical pipeline to exploit Ranger Suarez’s highly unusual reverse splits. Despite being a left-hander, Suarez has been highly vulnerable to left-handed batters, allowing a .290 AVG and a .773 OPS, compared to a stifling .214 AVG and .585 OPS against right-handers. Seattle's lineup is perfectly optimized to attack this weakness, loading the middle of their order with high-impact lefties like Josh Naylor, Dominic Canzone, Cole Young, and Colt Emerson. Canzone has been especially destructive at T-Mobile Park, carrying a massive 1.049 OPS at home. While both Suarez and Miller have heavy fly-ball profiles, T-Mobile Park's marine air and closed roof (0.94 park factor) serve as a major safety net that suppresses home runs, turning potential deep drives into routine outs. The primary case for Boston lies in their spectacular team defense, which ranks 3rd in MLB with 40 Defensive Runs Saved, and the presence of Willson Contreras, who has historically feasted on Luis Castillo with a .450 AVG and a 1.342 OPS in 20 career at-bats. However, these factors are overshadowed by Suarez’s recent regression, as the Boston left-hander has failed to complete 6.0 innings in four of his last five starts while giving up 20 hits in his last 16.1 innings. At -112, the market is overpaying for Suarez’s season ERA while underestimating how perfectly Seattle’s left-handed bats match up with his platoon struggles. With the Red Sox sitting on a 2-8 skid over their last 10 games, expect the Mariners' elite run suppression to carry them to victory in the series opener.

Beyond the mound, the Mariners have a direct tactical pipeline to exploit Ranger Suarez’s highly unusual reverse splits. Despite being a left-hander, Suarez has been highly vulnerable to left-handed batters, allowing a .290 AVG and a .773 OPS, compared to a stifling .214 AVG and .585 OPS against right-handers. Seattle's lineup is perfectly optimized to attack this weakness, loading the middle of their order with high-impact lefties like Josh Naylor, Dominic Canzone, Cole Young, and Colt Emerson. Canzone has been especially destructive at T-Mobile Park, carrying a massive 1.049 OPS at home. While both Suarez and Miller have heavy fly-ball profiles, T-Mobile Park's marine air and closed roof (0.94 park factor) serve as a major safety net that suppresses home runs, turning potential deep drives into routine outs.

The primary case for Boston lies in their spectacular team defense, which ranks 3rd in MLB with 40 Defensive Runs Saved, and the presence of Willson Contreras, who has historically feasted on Luis Castillo with a .450 AVG and a 1.342 OPS in 20 career at-bats. However, these factors are overshadowed by Suarez’s recent regression, as the Boston left-hander has failed to complete 6.0 innings in four of his last five starts while giving up 20 hits in his last 16.1 innings. At -112, the market is overpaying for Suarez’s season ERA while underestimating how perfectly Seattle’s left-handed bats match up with his platoon struggles. With the Red Sox sitting on a 2-8 skid over their last 10 games, expect the Mariners' elite run suppression to carry them to victory in the series opener.

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WCvs Haiti· -900

Brazil must win to keep their qualification hopes alive, and their vast talent superiority should see them through. Expect a heavily motivated Brazil to control possession and eventually break through Haiti's defensive block, though their lack of offensive efficiency means it will be far from a blowout.

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WCHaiti @ Brazil· +105

Brazil is missing Neymar's creative presence and currently averages just 1.26 xG per match despite taking 16.4 shots. Haiti plays a disciplined low-block defense, holding opponents to 1.1 goals per match in this cycle, making Under 3.5 the high-value selection.

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MLBvs Orioles· -198

A cool summer night sets the stage at Dodger Stadium as the league-leading Los Angeles Dodgers host the Baltimore Orioles in an intriguing interleague clash. While the Dodgers are priced as heavy favorites at -198, the moneyline is the sharp play because of their massive pitching and defensive advantages. Roki Sasaki takes the mound for Los Angeles, and although his 4.76 ERA looks pedestrian, his underlying profile is dominant. In his last five starts, Sasaki has delivered two outstanding 7.0-inning gems, allowing a combined total of only one earned run while striking out 18. His comfortable 3.26 home ERA and elite splitter (.182 BA allowed) contrast sharply with Orioles rookie Trey Gibson, who is laboring through a 5.91 ERA and a severe command crisis, having walked 12 batters over his last 19.1 innings. The matchup gets even worse for the rookie when analyzing platoon splits and ballpark conditions. Gibson struggles immensely against left-handed hitting, allowing a .295 AVG and .844 OPS. The Dodgers have stacked their lineup with five lefties and two switch-hitters, placing elite fastball hitters like Max Muncy (.626 xwOBA and .356 BA against four-seam fastballs) and Freddie Freeman (.358 BA against four-seamers) in prime positions to do damage. With a 10 mph wind blowing directly out to center field, Gibson’s 11.4% barrel rate allowed is a massive liability. Even with Shohei Ohtani away on paternity leave and Will Smith sidelined, the Dodgers still feature deep offensive weapons built to punish Gibson's fastballs and sinkers. The strongest argument against the Dodgers is the premium price tag considering they are missing Ohtani and face a motivated Pete Alonso returning to Los Angeles. However, the Orioles are dealing with their own massive, fresh blow with catcher Adley Rutschman out with a head injury. His replacement, Samuel Basallo, frames fewer strikes and has a lower caught-stealing rate (25% compared to Dalton Rushing's 35%), which is a critical downgrade for a wild rookie like Gibson. Defensively, the Dodgers play far cleaner baseball, committing only 25 errors this season compared to Baltimore's 44. Backed by a rested, elite bullpen featuring Tanner Scott (2.32 ERA) and Will Klein (2.12 ERA), the Dodgers will dominate the late frames. Back the Dodgers moneyline.

The matchup gets even worse for the rookie when analyzing platoon splits and ballpark conditions. Gibson struggles immensely against left-handed hitting, allowing a .295 AVG and .844 OPS. The Dodgers have stacked their lineup with five lefties and two switch-hitters, placing elite fastball hitters like Max Muncy (.626 xwOBA and .356 BA against four-seam fastballs) and Freddie Freeman (.358 BA against four-seamers) in prime positions to do damage. With a 10 mph wind blowing directly out to center field, Gibson’s 11.4% barrel rate allowed is a massive liability. Even with Shohei Ohtani away on paternity leave and Will Smith sidelined, the Dodgers still feature deep offensive weapons built to punish Gibson's fastballs and sinkers.

The strongest argument against the Dodgers is the premium price tag considering they are missing Ohtani and face a motivated Pete Alonso returning to Los Angeles. However, the Orioles are dealing with their own massive, fresh blow with catcher Adley Rutschman out with a head injury. His replacement, Samuel Basallo, frames fewer strikes and has a lower caught-stealing rate (25% compared to Dalton Rushing's 35%), which is a critical downgrade for a wild rookie like Gibson. Defensively, the Dodgers play far cleaner baseball, committing only 25 errors this season compared to Baltimore's 44. Backed by a rested, elite bullpen featuring Tanner Scott (2.32 ERA) and Will Klein (2.12 ERA), the Dodgers will dominate the late frames. Back the Dodgers moneyline.

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WCvs Paraguay· +105

The market is charging a premium of -140 on the -0.5 Asian handicap, yet offering a generous +105 on the 3-way moneyline for the exact same outcome, representing a glaring pricing error. Türkiye completely dominated their opener with 72.0% possession and 30.0 shots, indicating their 0-2 loss to Australia was highly anomalous. Facing a depleted Paraguay side that is missing key transition threat Ramon Sosa and conceded 4 goals to the USA, Türkiye has a clear statistical and technical advantage to win this match.

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WCParaguay @ Türkiye· -140

Both teams have demonstrated a significant lack of clinical finishing in their openers, with Türkiye failing to score despite 1.33 xG and Paraguay averaging a meager 0.54 xG over their last six internationals. Furthermore, Paraguay is missing key creative players and will likely deploy a heavily defensive low block to absorb pressure. While Türkiye has the quality to find a breakthrough, their dominance of possession will allow them to control the tempo and limit Paraguay's opportunities, leading to a low-scoring affair that stays Under 2.5 goals.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

PETE CROW-ARMSTRONGTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBCubs· +110

Pete Crow-Armstrong enters this contest on a massive power surge, having cleared 1.5 total bases in five consecutive starts. During this stretch, he has recorded three games with at least 4 total bases and one game with 10, fueled by four home runs in his last 10 appearances. He faces Kevin Gausman, whose 0.85 GO/AO ratio indicates a fly-ball tendency that aligns perfectly with Crow-Armstrong's current offensive profile. As the leadoff hitter, Crow-Armstrong will maximize his plate appearances, and the weather conditions at Wrigley (71 degrees, 11 mph wind L to R) provide a favorable environment for his extra-base hit potential.

GARY'S PICK

BEN BROWNK'S OVER 4.5

MLBCubs· -114

Ben Brown has been a consistent strikeout producer, clearing this 4.5 line in four of his last five starts (averaging 5.4 Ks per game in that span). His primary secondary weapon, a knuckle curve, is elite with a 46.9% whiff rate and a .112 xwOBA, which matches up well against a Blue Jays lineup showing significant strikeout vulnerability. Key Toronto hitters Nathan Lukes and Kazuma Okamoto have combined for 14 strikeouts over their last five games, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has also struggled with contact during his current 0-for-14 slump. With a 16.5 outs line suggesting he will work at least into the 6th inning, Brown has ample volume to reach 5 strikeouts.

GARY'S PICK

CHRISTIAN PULIŠIĆSHOTS OVER 3

WCUSA· -115

Christian Pulišić is the focal point of the USA's attacking structure, operating in a high-usage role that sees him frequently cutting inside to shoot or arriving late in the box. The USA's tactical profile is heavily slanted toward shot generation, averaging over 12 shots per game, while Australia's defensive approach involves sitting deep and ceding possession (35% average). In a match where the USA is a significant favorite (-160) playing on home soil, Pulišić is expected to maintain his high shot-share. Against an Australian defense allowing 1.36 xGA per match, Pulišić should find ample opportunities to test the keeper, making a 3-shot floor highly achievable for the team's primary offensive threat.

GARY'S PICK

MATHEW RYANSAVES OVER 4

WCAustralia· -130

Mathew Ryan will be the most active player on the pitch given the projected game script. Australia's low-possession style (35%) and the USA's high-volume shooting (12.33 shots/gm) create a scenario where the Australian goalkeeper is forced into frequent shot-stopping situations. The USA's recent 4-1 victory over Paraguay showcased an offense capable of putting high pressure on the goal frame, and they currently average 4.5 shots on target per match. For Ryan to clear this line, he only needs to stop approximately 80% of the USA's average on-target production, a reasonable expectation for an experienced captain in a high-stakes World Cup environment where his defense will likely be pinned back for long stretches.

GARY'S PICK

LAWRENCE SHANKLANDSHOTS OVER 1.5

WCScotland· -108

Lawrence Shankland is the focal point of a Scottish attack that has been surprisingly aggressive, averaging over 13 shots per match in recent internationals. Shankland himself has been the primary beneficiary of this volume, recording 6 shots in his last 2 caps (3.0 per match). While Morocco is a formidable defensive unit (0.4 GA/match), the line of 1.5 is a low bar for a starting striker who has also netted 3 goals in that same 2-game span. Scotland's tactical setup relies on getting the ball to Shankland quickly in transition, ensuring he receives the volume necessary to clear this line regardless of Morocco's possession dominance. We are backing his consistent role and current form to exceed a line that requires only 50% of his recent average production.

GARY'S PICK

ACHRAF HAKIMIGOAL OR ASSIST OVER 1

WCMorocco· +195

Achraf Hakimi is Morocco's most dangerous creative outlet, operating essentially as an auxiliary winger from the right flank. His recent production is elite, tallying 3 assists in his last 3 appearances. Morocco is expected to control 56% of possession against a Scotland side that, despite a clean sheet in their opener, has surrendered a high volume of expected goals (1.77 xGA/match) recently. This suggests a vulnerability that Morocco's technical midfield and Hakimi's delivery are well-positioned to exploit. At +195, the market implies only a 34% chance of a goal involvement, which significantly undervalues a player who has registered a point in 100% of his last three matches and faces a defense due for regression.

GARY'S PICK

COLSON MONTGOMERYHITS OVER 0.5

MLBWhite Sox· -160

This pick centers on an extreme reverse platoon split from Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. While Skubal dominates right-handed batters (.190 AVG), he has been uncharacteristically vulnerable to left-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .359 batting average and .954 OPS. Colson Montgomery, the White Sox's left-handed cleanup hitter, is ideally suited to exploit this, posting a .916 OPS in same-side matchups. Montgomery has been in elite form, recording multi-hit games in three of his last five starts and clubbing four home runs in that span. Additionally, Skubal is likely on a limited pitch count after throwing only 76 pitches in his recent return from injury (June 13), meaning Montgomery will likely face a Tigers bullpen that features high-ERA options like Will Vest (6.45 ERA) in the middle innings.

GARY'S PICK

DILLON DINGLERH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBTigers· -154

Dillon Dingler is currently the focal point of the Tigers' offense and enters tonight's contest batting 2nd. While the White Sox are opening with a lefty (Brandon Eisert), they are expected to rely on Erick Fedde (RHP) for the bulk of the innings. Dingler has a massive performance gap based on pitcher handedness, hitting just .189 against lefties compared to a robust .283 average and .917 OPS against righties. He faces a struggling Fedde, who carries a 4.38 ERA over his last five starts and has surrendered 23 hits in his last 24.2 innings. Dingler has cleared this 1.5 H+R+RBI line in three of his last five games, including a dominant 4-hit, 8-HRR performance on June 16. With Detroit missing key hitters like Gleyber Torres, Dingler's volume and production against right-handed pitching are essential to the Tigers' game plan.

GARY'S PICK

CODY BELLINGERTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBYankees· +110

Cody Bellinger is a completely different hitter at Yankee Stadium, where his .373 batting average and 1.163 OPS dwarf his road production. Tonight's conditions are perfectly aligned for his left-handed power, with a significant 14 mph wind blowing directly out to the short porch in right field. He faces rookie Rhett Lowder, whose primary sinker has been highly vulnerable this season, yielding a .438 xwOBA. Bellinger has shown the ability to clear this line with a single swing, having recorded 7 total bases in a game earlier this week. Given the combination of elite home splits, favorable wind, and Lowder's struggle with contact quality, Bellinger is well-positioned to exceed this line.

GARY'S PICK

SAL STEWARTH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBReds· -140

While Sal Stewart has been a standout rookie for the Reds, he faces his toughest test of the season tonight in Cam Schlittler. Schlittler has been nearly untouchable, allowing two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. The specific matchup favors the pitcher heavily; Schlittler limits right-handed hitters like Stewart to a meager .171 batting average and a .465 OPS. Stewart will have to contend with a 97.7 mph fastball and a curveball that generate whiffs at a 50% rate. In a game where the Yankees are heavy -275 favorites and the Reds are missing their primary catalyst (Elly De La Cruz), run-scoring opportunities will be scarce. Expect Schlittler's elite command and velocity to neutralize Stewart's recent production.

GARY'S PICK

BRYCE ELDRIDGEH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBGiants· +105

Bryce Eldridge enters tonight as the hottest hitter in the Giants' lineup, maintaining a 22-game on-base streak. Over his last 10 games, he has slashed .368 with four home runs and 10 RBIs, clearing this 1.5 HRR line in seven of those 10 contests. While Marlins starter Lake Bachar has a respectable 2.97 ERA, he allows a high hard-hit rate of 42.6%, which plays directly into the power profile Eldridge has shown recently (4 HR in last 10). Eldridge has also shown better production on the road (.339 AVG) than at home this season. Because Bachar has recently operated with a short leash (averaging roughly 3 innings per start), Eldridge will likely receive multiple plate appearances against a Marlins bullpen that features relievers like Pete Fairbanks, who carries a 6.75 ERA.

GARY'S PICK

OTTO LOPEZH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBMarlins· -130

Otto Lopez has been a consistent force at loanDepot park, hitting .349 at home compared to his .336 season average. He is in elite form, hitting .350 over his last 10 games, including multi-hit performances in five of his last six games. He faces Giants right-hander Landen Roupp, who has a significant split based on the time of day; Roupp's ERA balloons to 5.22 in night games compared to 2.22 in day games. Lopez bats fifth in the Marlins lineup, placing him in a prime position to drive in runners, particularly since the Marlins' top-of-the-order hitters have helped the team average 5.2 runs per game over their last 10 outings. Lopez's high contact rate and home-field comfort provide a high floor for hits and run production tonight.

GARY'S PICK

JAMES WOODH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBNationals· -115

He carries a dominant 1.003 OPS and .286 batting average against right-handed pitchers this season, with 15 of his 20 home runs coming in that split. He faces Griffin Jax, whose traditional metrics are deceptive; Jax's 4.86 xERA is more than a full run higher than his actual ERA, and he has a significant platoon weakness against lefties, allowing a .796 OPS. Wood has cleared this 1.5 HRR line in four of his last five games, showcasing multiple paths to production through his elite power and high run-scoring volume (68 runs). PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Tropicana Field — Pitcher-Friendly (Factor: 0.93). VOLUME FLOOR: As the Nationals' leadoff hitter, Wood is guaranteed the maximum number of plate appearances (likely 4-5), providing high volume to capitalize on Jax's regression indicators. THE RISK: Griffin Jax possesses high-end velocity (96.3 mph) that can challenge Wood's high strikeout rate. If Jax effectively elevates his fastball, Wood could struggle to put the ball in play.

GARY'S PICK

NASIM NUNEZTOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

MLBNationals· -115

This prop line is set at 0.5 total bases, meaning a single hit of any kind clears the bet—a result Nunez has achieved in four of his last five games (TB: 2, 6, 2, 1, 0). He faces Griffin Jax, who allows a significantly higher .286 average to left-handed hitters than he does to righties. Nunez, a switch hitter batting from the left side today, is ideally positioned to exploit this split. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Tropicana Field — Pitcher-Friendly (Factor: 0.93). VOLUME FLOOR: Nunez has solidified his role during this hot streak, consistently receiving 3 to 4 plate appearances batting in the 7th spot. THE RISK: Nunez's season-long .223 average suggests his recent production could be an outlier. If he reverts to his season mean or struggles against Jax's 96 mph velocity, he could easily go hitless.

GARY'S PICK

JACKSON CHOURIOTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +104

Jackson Chourio is the hottest hitter in this matchup, slashing .370 over his last 10 games with a power surge resulting in 6 home runs. He faces left-hander Martín Pérez, a veteran against whom Chourio has an elite platoon advantage (.349 AVG). While Pérez has a respectable season ERA at 2.90, his 4.02 xERA and 38% hard-hit rate suggest he is extremely susceptible to the loud contact Chourio is currently producing. Chourio has cleared this 1.5 total bases line in 7 of his last 9 games, frequently through multi-hit performances or extra-base hits. The warm Atlanta weather (83°F) and 6 mph wind blowing out to left field further amplify Chourio's power profile tonight.

GARY'S PICK

DRAKE BALDWINH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· -150

Despite batting leadoff, Drake Baldwin faces the most difficult individual matchup in this game. Jacob Misiorowski has been a 'lefty-killer' this season, holding left-handed hitters to a miniscule .108 batting average and a .362 OPS. Misiorowski's elite 13.55 K/9 rate, powered by a 100.1 mph fastball, makes it difficult for any hitter to sustain rallies, particularly a Braves lineup currently on a five-game losing streak and missing key anchors like Acuña and Harris II. Baldwin must navigate Misiorowski's high-velocity arsenal which has allowed just two home runs to lefties all year. While Baldwin's volume at the top of the order is high, the extreme statistical dominance of the Brewers' starter against left-handed bats makes a multi-production night unlikely.

GARY'S PICK

JAKE BURGERTOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· -165

Jake Burger enters tonight as the hottest hitter in a Rangers lineup currently missing Corey Seager. Burger is hitting .382 over his last 10 games and has recorded at least one hit in each of his last five outings. He faces Padres starter Randy Vasquez, whose season-long 3.63 ERA is highly deceptive; Vasquez's 6.23 xERA is the result of allowing extreme contact quality, including a 13% barrel rate and a 46.1% hard-hit rate. Vasquez has failed to complete six innings in five straight starts and has allowed multiple runs in each. Despite batting 7th in the order, Burger's current form and Vasquez's high-variance profile make 1+ total bases a high-probability outcome.

GARY'S PICK

JACKSON MERRILLH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· -130

While Jackson Merrill is batting 3rd for the Padres, he faces a monumental challenge in Jacob deGrom at Globe Life Field. deGrom has been nearly untouchable at home this season, posting a 1.26 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. He has been particularly effective against left-handed hitters like Merrill, holding them to a .198 average. Merrill himself is batting just .213 on the season and belongs to a Padres offense that has been the least productive in the majors (by wRC+) over the last month. deGrom has allowed only two runs total over his last 17 innings, making it difficult for the top of the Padres' order to generate the multiple hits, runs, or RBIs required to clear this line.

GARY'S PICK

YORDAN ALVAREZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBAstros· -115

Yordan Alvarez is currently the hottest hitter in the Astros' lineup, entering this series with a .325 season average and an elite 1.070 OPS. Over his last 10 games, he has maintained a .375 average (15-for-40) and has cleared this total bases line in three of his last five games. The matchup against Tanner Bibee is particularly favorable for a power left-hander like Alvarez; Bibee has struggled significantly with home runs this season (15 allowed in 84.0 IP), and ten of those fifteen long balls have been surrendered to left-handed hitters. Furthermore, Alvarez has already demonstrated success in this head-to-head matchup, having hit a two-run home run against Bibee earlier this season. Given Bibee's 45.1% hard-hit rate allowed and Alvarez's .358 average at home, the Astros' DH is well-positioned to record multiple bases tonight.

GARY'S PICK

RHYS HOSKINSH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBGuardians· -140

Rhys Hoskins is in the midst of a significant offensive slump, hitting just .083 (3-for-36) over his last 10 games. He has recorded zero hits in seven of those ten contests and has stayed under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in four of his last five games. Tonight he faces Tatsuya Imai, who, despite high overall season numbers, has been extremely effective against right-handed hitters, limiting them to a .196 AVG and a .586 OPS. The Guardians' lineup is also notably diminished by the absence of Jose Ramirez, which removes a major source of run-scoring opportunities and lineup protection for Hoskins. With 15 strikeouts in his last 10 games and a difficult platoon matchup, Hoskins is unlikely to generate enough offensive volume to clear this line.

GARY'S PICK

JJ WETHERHOLTH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBCardinals· -165

Wetherholt enters this matchup as the Cardinals' hottest hitter, posting a .357 average over his last 10 games. As the leadoff hitter, he is guaranteed the highest volume of plate appearances, which is critical for a cumulative prop like Hits+Runs+RBIs. He faces Seth Lugo, who has demonstrated a clear vulnerability to left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .284 average compared to .245 against righties. Wetherholt has surpassed this 1.5 HRR line in seven of his last 10 games, fueled by multiple multi-hit performances. With power threats Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker hitting behind him, his opportunities to score runs after reaching base are significantly elevated against a pitcher returning from a concussion-related layoff.

GARY'S PICK

SALVADOR PEREZTOTAL BASES UNDER 1.5

MLBRoyals· -160

While Perez is a franchise icon at Kauffman Stadium, he is currently mired in a significant slump, hitting only .205 over his last 10 games. Tonight, he faces Michael McGreevy, whose season stats show he is much more effective against right-handed hitters (.231 AVG allowed) than lefties. More importantly, the Royals' lineup is severely depleted with injuries to Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia, who typically provide protection and run-scoring opportunities around Perez. Without Witt Jr. in the lineup, the Cardinals can afford to pitch Perez more cautiously or attack him with breaking balls out of the zone. Perez has failed to record more than one total base in four of his last five games, and the combination of his cold streak and the lack of surrounding lineup support makes the under the high-probability play.

GARY'S PICK

BRYAN REYNOLDSH+R+RBI OVER 2.5

MLBPirates· -124

Bryan Reynolds is in peak form entering Coors Field, slashing .375 with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs over his last 10 games. Tonight's matchup is statistically elite for him; he faces left-hander Kyle Freeland, whose 7.98 ERA and 1.70 WHIP indicate a lack of both command and effectiveness. Freeland has been decimated by right-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .335 average and 13 home runs in just 209 at-bats. As a switch-hitter, Reynolds will bat from the right side, where he has maintained a .322 average this season. In a game with a high 11.5 total, Reynolds' position in the three-hole ensures maximum plate appearances to accumulate hits, runs, and RBIs against a pitcher who allows a 45% hard-hit rate.

GARY'S PICK

HUNTER GOODMANTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBRockies· -115

Hunter Goodman is the Rockies' most dangerous power threat, having already blasted 21 home runs this season. He is currently on a hot streak, hitting .300 over his last 10 games with five home runs. He faces rookie Bubba Chandler, who possesses elite velocity (98.4 mph fastball) but is a extreme fly-ball pitcher with a 0.62 GO/AO ratio. At Coors Field, fly-ball tendencies are often punished with extra-base hits. Goodman’s power profile is perfectly suited for this environment; his .863 OPS against right-handers and recent multi-hit performances (including a 12-total-base game earlier this month) suggest a high probability of recording the single extra-base hit or two singles required to clear this line.

GARY'S PICK

NICK KURTZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBAthletics· +100

Nick Kurtz is currently the most productive hitter for the Athletics, entering tonight's contest with a .375 batting average and 6 home runs over his last 10 games. This power is highly concentrated at home, where he has hit 12 of his 18 season home runs and maintains a 1.099 OPS. He draws a favorable matchup against Jose Soriano, who exhibits a significant platoon split; Soriano allows a .723 OPS to left-handed hitters compared to a stifling .482 to right-handers. With weather conditions at Sutter Health Park featuring 80-degree temperatures and an 11 mph wind blowing out toward center field, Kurtz's fly-ball profile is well-positioned to capitalize on any mistakes. He has cleared this total bases line in three of his last five games, including a 9-total-base performance.

GARY'S PICK

LOGAN O'HOPPEH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBAngels· +105

Logan O'Hoppe has been the most consistent hitter in the Angels' injury-depleted lineup, posting a .344 average over his last 10 games. He faces a struggling Jeffrey Springs, who is pitching with a 5.13 ERA and has surrendered 15 earned runs over his last 12.2 innings (three starts). Springs is an extreme fly-ball pitcher (35.5% groundball rate) who is particularly vulnerable to right-handed power, having given up 13 of his 19 home runs this season to right-handed batters. Despite batting 7th, O'Hoppe's ability to make hard contact against a pitcher surrendering over 2.1 HR/9 in a hitter-friendly environment (80F, 11 mph wind out) provides a clear path to multiple production events.

GARY'S PICK

CORBIN CARROLLTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBDiamondbacks· +110

Corbin Carroll possesses a distinct statistical edge in this matchup due to his elite performance against left-handed pitching. While many left-handed hitters struggle in same-side matchups, Carroll has dominated them this season, posting a .389 AVG and a 1.112 OPS across 90 at-bats. He faces rookie southpaw Connor Prielipp, who has been significantly more vulnerable on the road (7.27 ERA) than at home. Prielipp allows a 9.2% barrel rate and tends to surrender fly balls (0.73 GO/AO), a dangerous profile against Carroll, who has recorded two home runs in his last five games. With Carroll batting 3rd in the Diamondbacks lineup, he is positioned for high-volume opportunities against a starter prone to high pitch counts (98 in his last start) and a Minnesota bullpen featuring high-ERA relievers like Luis Garcia (9.00 ERA) and Justin Topa (8.05 ERA).

GARY'S PICK

ROYCE LEWISH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBTwins· -150

Royce Lewis faces a daunting matchup against Michael Soroka, who has been dominant at Chase Field this season with a 2.09 home ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Lewis has struggled to find consistency throughout the 2026 campaign, entering this game with a .199 season average. His recent game logs show he has recorded one or fewer hits in four of his last five games, including a 4-strikeout performance on June 16. Soroka's elite command (only 17 walks in 81.0 innings) forces hitters to earn their way on base, which is a difficult task for Lewis given his current slump and high strikeout tendencies. With Soroka coming off consecutive 7-inning, 1-run starts, the offensive ceiling for Lewis is significantly capped, making it unlikely he will record the multi-base or multi-hit production required to clear the 1.5 threshold.

GARY'S PICK

WILLSON CONTRERASH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBRed Sox· +101

While Bryce Miller is a tough initial matchup (1.54 ERA), the Mariners have confirmed a 'piggyback' strategy where Luis Castillo is expected to handle the bulk of the middle innings. This creates a significant statistical advantage for Willson Contreras, who has historically dominated Castillo. In 20 career at-bats against Castillo, Contreras has a .450 batting average and a massive 1.342 OPS. Batting cleanup, Contreras is guaranteed high-leverage opportunities to drive in runs or score himself, especially considering he leads the Red Sox in both home runs and RBIs. Given Castillo's 5.00 ERA and struggle to pitch deep into games this season, Contreras is well-positioned to clear this multi-category line during the middle-inning transition.

GARY'S PICK

RANGER SUAREZPITCHER OUTS UNDER 17.5

MLBRed Sox· +105

Despite a solid 3.21 ERA, Ranger Suarez has struggled with efficiency throughout the 2026 season, particularly in terms of pitch count management. Over his last five starts, Suarez has failed to complete the 6th inning (required for the Over) four times. His inability to pitch deep is driven by high contact and walk rates; he has surrendered 30 hits and 13 walks over his last 25.1 innings of work. While T-Mobile Park is a pitcher-friendly venue, Suarez's high-volume strikeout approach (70 K in 70 IP) often results in elevated pitch counts that force early exits. Facing a Mariners lineup that, while prone to strikeouts, is disciplined enough to exploit Suarez's recent control issues, it is highly likely the Red Sox bullpen will be called upon before the 18-out mark.

GARY'S PICK

RAPHINHAANYTIME GOAL OVER 1

WCBrazil· -105

Raphinha is the most productive goal-scorer for the Brazilian national team in the current cycle, having netted 5 times in 13 appearances. This match is a critical juncture for Brazil, who currently sit 3rd in Group C with only 1 point and a 0-goal differential; they must secure a decisive win to advance and improve their tie-breaking metrics. Haiti's defense conceded to Scotland in their opening match and now faces a Brazil side that averages 16.4 shots per match. Given Raphinha's average of 2.0 shots per cap and Brazil's high expected goal total (3.5 main line), he is the primary candidate to find the back of the net. Brazil's status as a -900 favorite suggests they will spend the majority of the game in Haiti's final third, maximizing Raphinha's scoring opportunities.

GARY'S PICK

JOHNY PLACIDESAVES OVER 5

WCHaiti· -190

Johny Placide is expected to face high volume as the goalkeeper for a Haiti side that is a +2000 underdog. Brazil's offensive profile is characterized by high volume, averaging 6.2 shots on target and nearly 5 corners per match. In a must-win scenario where goal differential is a priority, Brazil is likely to increase their pressure, potentially pushing their shots-on-target count toward double digits. Placide, a veteran for Haiti, will be the primary line of defense against this onslaught. While Brazil's finishing is efficient (2.3 goals/game), the sheer volume of shots they generate (16.4/game) provides a high floor for saves. Even if Haiti concedes multiple goals, the constant pressure from Brazil's wingers and midfielders should force Placide into making at least 6 saves to cover this line.

THE LONG SHOT

ALEC BURLESONHR OVER 0.5

MLBCardinals· +390

Alec Burleson enters tonight's contest as the most significant power threat in the Cardinals' lineup, having recorded five home runs in his last 10 games. He faces Seth Lugo, whose 3.86 ERA is betrayed by a much higher 5.3 xERA, suggesting significant regression is imminent. Burleson has been a specialist against right-handed pitching this season, posting a .327 average and a .993 OPS, with 12 of his 13 home runs coming against righties. Lugo’s splits further favor this matchup, as he allows a high .284 batting average to left-handed hitters. Given Burleson’s current elite timing and Lugo's vulnerability as a contact-oriented pitcher returning from injury, the Cardinals' first baseman is well-positioned to clear the 0.5 home run line.

THE LONG SHOT

BRYAN REYNOLDSHR OVER 0.5

MLBPirates· +350

Bryan Reynolds enters this series as the Pirates' hottest hitter, batting .375 over his last 10 games with four home runs. He faces Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland, a matchup that statistically favors Reynolds' power profile. Reynolds has a career-high .997 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. Freeland, meanwhile, has struggled significantly with a 7.98 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. His primary 4-seam fastball is being hit for a .387 average, and he allows a 45% hard-hit rate. In the high-altitude environment of Coors Field (86 degrees), Reynolds' high contact quality against lefties makes a home run a high-probability outcome.

THE LONG SHOT

NICK KURTZHR OVER 0.5

MLBAthletics· +280

Nick Kurtz enters this matchup as the Athletics' primary power threat against right-handed pitching, boasting a 1.070 OPS and 13 of his 18 home runs against righties this season. While Angels starter José Soriano carries a strong 2.79 ERA, his expected metrics (4.1 xERA) suggest he is due for significant regression. Crucially, Soriano exhibits a notable platoon split, allowing a .723 OPS and 7 home runs to left-handed hitters compared to a .482 OPS against righties. Kurtz has been highly productive at Sutter Health Park, where he has hit 12 of his 18 home runs. With the weather context of 80 degrees and an 11 mph wind blowing directly out to center field, the environment is primed for Kurtz's left-handed power to clear the fence against a pitcher who struggles to neutralize left-handed bats.

THE LONG SHOT

JAMES WOODHR OVER 0.5

MLBNationals· +400

James Wood is the primary engine of the Nationals' power surge, leading the club with 20 home runs. Statistically, he is perfectly positioned to exploit Griffin Jax, a right-hander whose 3.68 ERA is significantly belied by a 4.86 xERA and a 1.43 HR/9 rate. Wood is particularly lethal against righties, posting a 1.003 OPS in the split. While Tropicana Field is generally a run-suppressing environment, Wood's recent form (3 HR in his last 10 games) and his status as the leadoff hitter provide him with ample opportunities to clear the fence. His season HR-per-game rate of 26.6% comfortably exceeds the 20% implied probability of these +400 odds.

THE LONG SHOT

YORDAN ALVAREZHR OVER 0.5

MLBAstros· +215

Yordan Alvarez enters tonight's matchup in peak form, batting .375 (15-for-40) with 2 home runs over his last 10 games. The matchup against Tanner Bibee is highly favorable for Alvarez's power profile; Bibee has shown a distinct vulnerability to left-handed power, surrendering 10 of his 15 total home runs this season to LHB in just 170 at-bats (one every 17.0 AB). Alvarez remains one of the league's premier power threats against right-handed pitching, posting a 1.103 OPS and 16 home runs in that split. Furthermore, Bibee’s contact profile includes a 45.1% hard-hit rate and a fly-ball lean (0.78 GO/AO), which plays into Alvarez’s strength at Daikin Park, where he has recorded 11 home runs and a .358 average this season.

THE LONG SHOT

JAC CAGLIANONEHR OVER 0.5

MLBRoyals· +380

With the Royals' lineup severely depleted by the absences of Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia, Jac Caglianone stands as the team's primary power threat. He matches up against Michael McGreevy, who is a prime candidate for massive regression, as indicated by his 5.58 xERA. McGreevy has shown a specific vulnerability to left-handed power, surrendering seven of his 11 home runs this season to lefties in just 183 at-bats. Caglianone is in excellent recent form, hitting .341 over his last 10 games with three home runs in that span. Facing a pitcher with a low strikeout rate (5.9 K/9) who allows a high 40.8% Hard-Hit rate, Caglianone is highly likely to see multiple balls in play and capitalize on McGreevy's expected regression.

THE LONG SHOT

HUNTER GOODMANHR OVER 0.5

MLBRockies· +220

Hunter Goodman is the primary power source for the Rockies and is currently on a dominant home run streak, hitting 5 over his last 10 games. He faces Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler. While Chandler has elite 98.4 mph velocity, his 0.62 GO/AO ratio indicates he is a fly-ball-oriented pitcher. In the thin air of Denver with a light wind blowing toward the outfield, Goodman's power against right-handed pitching (16 of his 21 home runs) is a major threat. Goodman hits third in the lineup, ensuring maximum plate appearances in a high-run environment (game total 11.5).

THE LONG SHOT

JO ADELLHR OVER 0.5

MLBAngels· +265

Jo Adell is a split-heavy hitter who finds most of his success against left-handed pitching, evidenced by his .863 OPS and 6 home runs against southpaws despite fewer opportunities. He faces Jeffrey Springs, who has been exceptionally vulnerable to the long ball this season, surrendering 19 home runs in just 79.0 innings pitched. Springs' struggles are particularly pronounced against right-handed hitters, who have tagged him for 13 of those 19 home runs and an .831 OPS. Adell sits in the heart of the Angels' order (batting 3rd), ensuring he will see high-leverage plate appearances against Springs. Given Springs' high HR/9 rate and Adell's proficiency in this specific platoon matchup, combined with the favorable wind conditions blowing out to center field, Adell is the Angels' best bet to go deep.

THE LONG SHOT

JUNIOR CAMINEROHR OVER 0.5

MLBRays· +340

Junior Caminero represents the Rays' best chance for power in a matchup against Nationals opener PJ Poulin. Poulin is one of the most significant regression candidates in the league; despite a 3.29 ERA, his xERA sits at 6.15, largely due to a massive 51.2% hard-hit rate and 11% barrel rate allowed. Caminero leads the Rays in both home runs (15) and slugging percentage (.485), making him the ideal candidate to punish Poulin's tendency to surrender loud contact. Although Caminero has been in a recent slump (.216 over his last 10), the cleanup spot in the lineup ensures he will face Poulin or a similarly vulnerable Nationals bullpen with runners on or in high-leverage situations where power is needed.

THE LONG SHOT

BYRON BUXTONHR OVER 0.5

MLBTwins· +300

Byron Buxton is currently on a massive power surge, having hit five home runs in his last 10 games to bring his season total to 23. While Diamondbacks starter Michael Soroka has been stingy recently, Buxton thrives in this specific matchup, holding a career 1.153 OPS against Arizona. Buxton also shows a distinct power preference for right-handed pitching, hitting 19 of his 23 home runs against righties this season while slugging for a .957 OPS. In a hitter-friendly environment like Chase Field (1.06 park factor), Buxton's elite barrel ability (high season HR count) and recent hot streak make him a high-probability candidate to leave the yard. His season-long HR per game rate (36%) and recent 10-game rate (50%) both comfortably exceed the 25% implied probability of the +300 odds.

THE LONG SHOT

BEN RICEHR OVER 0.5

MLBYankees· +320

Rice is in an ideal position to exploit both the pitcher matchup and environmental conditions at Yankee Stadium. As a left-handed power hitter, he faces rookie Rhett Lowder, who has displayed a stark platoon split this season, allowing all three of his season's home runs to left-handed batters while allowing zero to righties. Rice has been dominant against right-handed pitching, posting a 1.042 OPS and 15 of his 20 home runs in that split. Furthermore, Lowder’s primary offering, the sinker (30.1% usage), is his most vulnerable pitch, yielding a .438 xwOBA. With a 14 mph wind blowing directly toward the short right-field porch and temperatures at 81°F, the conditions are optimized for Rice to add to his season total from the leadoff spot.

THE LONG SHOT

KETEL MARTEHR OVER 0.5

MLBDiamondbacks· +370

Ketel Marte faces an ideal matchup to snap his current 10-game home run drought. He faces rookie left-hander Connor Prielipp, who has struggled immensely of late, posting a 7.36 ERA over his last three starts and allowing four home runs to right-handed or switch-hitters in just 136 at-bats this season. Marte is a known lefty-crusher, and the Diamondbacks' offense as a whole ranks 4th in the league in OPS against southpaws. Marte's personal HR rate is also significantly better when batting from the right side against lefties (one HR every 20.7 AB) compared to right-handers (one every 28.5 AB). Given Prielipp's recent tendency to give up hard contact and Marte's leadoff position ensuring maximum plate appearances, the +370 odds offer value for a hitter in a top-tier tactical spot.

THE LONG SHOT

JAZZ CHISHOLM JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBYankees· +305

Chisholm provides a secondary high-value option to capitalize on the Yankees' left-handed power advantage tonight. He faces the same platoon-vulnerable starter in Rhett Lowder, who has struggled against lefties (surrendering a .747 OPS and all 3 of his season's home runs to the left side). Chisholm possesses double-digit home run power (10) and has homered within his last five games, suggesting his timing is locked in. The atmospheric conditions—81°F and a 14 mph wind gusting toward the short right-field porch—play directly into Chisholm's pull power from the middle of the order. While Lowder's changeup is effective, his overall contact quality allowed (39.2% hard-hit rate) gives Chisholm a high ceiling if he connects with a sinker or fastball.

THE LONG SHOT

CHRISTIAN WALKERHR OVER 0.5

MLBAstros· +340

Christian Walker provides significant value at +340 given his season-long power production, specifically against right-handed pitching. Walker has connected for 14 of his 18 home runs this season against righties. While Tanner Bibee has been more successful at limiting home runs to right-handed hitters (5 HR in 142 AB) than lefties, his underlying contact metrics remain concerning. Bibee allows a 10.2% barrel rate and a 45.1% hard-hit rate, suggesting that when contact is made, it is frequently of high quality. Walker's 18 home runs and 52 RBIs demonstrate his ability to capitalize on these mistakes, especially hitting in the heart of the order directly behind a high-OBP threat like Alvarez. Despite a recent .205 average over his last 10 games, Walker's ability to drive the ball in a dome environment makes him a viable threat to clear the fence.

GARY'S PICK

FREDDIE FREEMANTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBDodgers· +105

Freeman has a highly favorable matchup against Orioles rookie Trey Gibson, who has struggled significantly this season with a 1.59 WHIP and a 5.91 ERA. Gibson is particularly vulnerable to left-handed hitters, allowing them to bat .295 with an .844 OPS. Freeman is ideally positioned to exploit this, having cleared the 1.5 total bases line in three of his last four starts, including multiple games with four bases. Gibson's high barrel rate (11.4%) and hard-hit rate (41.4%) align poorly with Freeman's contact quality. Additionally, the weather conditions at Dodger Stadium, featuring 10 mph winds blowing out to center field, provide an environment conducive to the extra-base hits needed to clear this line.

GARY'S PICK

PETE ALONSOTOTAL BASES UNDER 1.5

MLBOrioles· -152

Pete Alonso faces a daunting challenge in Roki Sasaki, who utilizes elite velocity (97.4 mph 4-seam fastball) and a devastating splitter to suppress right-handed power hitters. Sasaki limits righties to a .241 batting average and maintains a high strikeout rate that creates a low floor for contact. Alonso has been inconsistent of late, failing to record 2 or more total bases in 70% of his last 10 games and 4 of his last 5. Sasaki's ability to generate whiffs (64 K in 62.1 IP) matches up well against Alonso’s high-effort swing. While Alonso always possesses home run potential, the statistical trend heavily favors him remaining under this total given the specific pitching matchup and his recent cold stretch.

GARY'S PICK

ANTONIO SANABRIASHOTS UNDER 1.5

WCParaguay· -115

Antonio Sanabria enters this matchup with a low historical shot volume for a primary attacker, averaging just 0.77 shots per match (10 shots in 13 caps). This baseline efficiency makes a 1.5-shot line difficult to clear even in balanced games, and the context of this specific matchup makes it even less likely. In their tournament opener, Türkiye monopolized the ball with 72% possession, while Paraguay has averaged just 36.25% possession over their last six internationals. Given Türkiye's tendency to control territory and tempo, Sanabria is likely to be isolated upfront with minimal service. Paraguay's team-wide average of 10.25 shots per match is already modest, and against a ball-dominant Türkiye side, the volume is expected to tilt even further away from the Paraguayan frontline. Risk: A single sequence where Paraguay catches Türkiye on a counter-attack could result in a shot, putting Sanabria halfway to the over early.

GARY'S PICK

MIGUEL ALMIRÓNSHOTS UNDER 1.5

WCParaguay· -115

Miguel Almirón is a key component of the Paraguayan transition, but his international production is characterized by ball progression rather than high-volume shooting. With 16 shots in 15 caps, Almirón averages only 1.07 shots per game, consistently staying below the 1.5-shot threshold. The tactical landscape of this game reinforces the under; Türkiye’s dominant 72% possession rate in their last match suggests Almirón will be forced to track back and defend in his own half rather than operating in the final third. Paraguay’s low offensive output (0.54 xG/match) suggests they struggle to generate high-quality looks, and Almirón's role as a creator often sees him looking for a pass rather than a low-percentage shot. With Türkiye controlling the ball, Almirón's opportunities to find shooting lanes will be significantly curtailed. Risk: Almirón's pace on the break makes him a threat to cut inside and shoot from distance, which could lead to an over if Türkiye's rest defense is disorganized.

Research

HEAT CHECKTOR @ CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1.395 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 55 PA: a 1.395 OPS versus .854 for the season, 0.541 above his norm. He has 15 home runs on the season.
P 3-for-3, 3 TB, 2 BB
PLATOON EDGECHW @ DET
Randal Grichuk (bats R) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot
Randal Grichuk's vs. Left line (.987 OPS, 61 AB) sits well above his .481 mark the other way (35 AB). Tonight's starter Tarik Skubal throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-3, 6 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGECHW @ DET
Miguel Vargas (bats R) draws Tarik Skubal (LHP), batting 1st
Miguel Vargas carries a 1.115 OPS vs. Left (77 AB) against .720 the other way (185 AB), and faces LHP Tarik Skubal from the 1st spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGESF @ MIA
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 1st against Landen Roupp (RHP)
Over 198 AB vs. Right, Liam Hicks owns a .911 OPS versus .519 in 45 AB the other way. He sees RHP Landen Roupp tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGETOR @ CHC
Jesus Sanchez (bats L) hits 3rd against Ben Brown (RHP)
Over 176 AB vs. Right, Jesus Sanchez owns a .844 OPS versus .377 in 26 AB the other way. He sees RHP Ben Brown tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGETOR @ CHC
Yohendrick Pinango (bats L) hits 4th against Ben Brown (RHP)
Over 98 AB vs. Right, Yohendrick Pinango owns a .903 OPS versus .320 in 25 AB the other way. He sees RHP Ben Brown tonight hitting 4th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKSF @ MIA
Matt Chapman: 1.277 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.277 OPS spans the last 15 days (41 PA) against a .737 season baseline, a 0.54 swing.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATCardinals @ Royals
Alec Burleson to go deep
Alec Burleson enters tonight's contest as the most significant power threat in the Cardinals' lineup, having recorded five home runs in his last 10 games. He faces Seth Lugo, whose 3.86 ERA is betrayed by a much higher 5.3 xERA, suggesting significant regression is imminent.
HR THREATPirates @ Rockies
Bryan Reynolds to leave the yard
Bryan Reynolds enters this series as the Pirates' hottest hitter, batting .375 over his last 10 games with four home runs. He faces Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland, a matchup that statistically favors Reynolds' power profile.
HR THREATAngels @ Athletics
Nick Kurtz to go deep
Nick Kurtz enters this matchup as the Athletics' primary power threat against right-handed pitching, boasting a 1.070 OPS and 13 of his 18 home runs against righties this season. While Angels starter José Soriano carries a strong 2.79 ERA, his expected metrics (4.1 xERA) suggest he is due for significant regression.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 2 TB
HR THREATPirates @ Rockies
Hunter Goodman to clear a fence
Hunter Goodman is the primary power source for the Rockies and is currently on a dominant home run streak, hitting 5 over his last 10 games. He faces Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler.
HR THREATGuardians @ Astros
Yordan Alvarez to leave the yard
Yordan Alvarez enters tonight's matchup in peak form, batting .375 (15-for-40) with 2 home runs over his last 10 games. The matchup against Tanner Bibee is highly favorable for Alvarez's power profile; Bibee has shown a distinct vulnerability to left-handed power, surrendering 10 of his 15 total home runs this season to LHB in just 170 at-bats (one every 17.0 AB).
HR THREATAngels @ Athletics
Jo Adell to clear a fence
Jo Adell is a split-heavy hitter who finds most of his success against left-handed pitching, evidenced by his .863 OPS and 6 home runs against southpaws despite fewer opportunities. He faces Jeffrey Springs, who has been exceptionally vulnerable to the long ball this season, surrendering 19 home runs in just 79.0 innings pitched.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
HR THREATCardinals @ Royals
Jac Caglianone to clear a fence
With the Royals' lineup severely depleted by the absences of Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia, Jac Caglianone stands as the team's primary power threat.
COOLING OFFTOR @ CHC
Nico Hoerner: .309 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Kevin Gausman
Nico Hoerner's .309 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .637 season mark, down 0.328. Tonight he draws RHP Kevin Gausman — his weaker side: a .584 OPS vs RHP across 208 AB.
P 3-for-6, 4 TB
STREAKSF @ MIA
MIA have won 5 straight
Miami Marlins have won 5 straight, outscoring teams by 18 runs over the run; 5-1 across their last 6.
P team won 3-4
HR THREATNationals @ Rays
James Wood to homer
James Wood is the primary engine of the Nationals' power surge, leading the club with 20 home runs. Statistically, he is perfectly positioned to exploit Griffin Jax, a right-hander whose 3.68 ERA is significantly belied by a 4.86 xERA and a 1.43 HR/9 rate.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
PARK WEATHERCIN @ NYY
Wind blowing out 15 mph at Yankee Stadium tonight
Tonight's reading at Yankee Stadium — Partly Cloudy, 77°, wind 15 mph, Out To RF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 9.5.
P final total 5 vs 9.5 (over lean)
SITUATIONALCHW @ DET
CHW's bullpen has covered 16 innings over the last 3 games
That is 16 relief innings in 3 games, led by Sean Burke (7.3) and Joe Rock (3). DET's pen has thrown 11.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 3-4
PLATOON EDGECIN @ NYY
JJ Bleday (bats L) draws Cam Schlittler (RHP), batting 2nd
JJ Bleday carries a 1.013 OPS vs. Right (119 AB) against .749 the other way (47 AB), and faces RHP Cam Schlittler from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONWSH @ TB
PJ Poulin: 3.29 ERA vs 6.15 xERA
PJ Poulin carries a 3.29 ERA against a 6.15 expected ERA (2.86 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .230 off him vs a .266 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
STARTER FORMSF @ MIA
Landen Roupp: 8.16 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 14.3 innings, 13 earned runs, 15 hits. That 8.16 ERA runs 3.93 over his 4.24 season number.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
PLATOON EDGELAA @ OAK
Nick Kurtz (bats L) hits 2nd against Ryan Johnson (RHP)
Over 175 AB vs. Right, Nick Kurtz owns a 1.070 OPS versus .833 in 93 AB the other way. He sees RHP Ryan Johnson tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
TOURNAMENTTO LIFT THE CUP
France head the title market at +390
France are the market's outright World Cup favourite at +390. Spain (+550) and England (+600) are the next shortest.
HEAT CHECKLAA @ OAK
Zack Gelof: 1.110 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (54 PA) he is at a 1.110 OPS, up 0.266 on his .844 season mark. He has 11 home runs on the season.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGELAA @ OAK
Jo Adell (bats R) hits 3rd against Gage Jump (LHP)
Over 85 AB vs. Left, Jo Adell owns a .863 OPS versus .610 in 212 AB the other way. He sees LHP Gage Jump tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
SITUATIONALMIL @ ATL
15 bullpen innings in 3 games for ATL
Relievers have absorbed 15 innings over the last 3 games (Carlos Carrasco (4) and Dylan Dodd (3) the heaviest). MIL's pen has thrown 12.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-3
TOURNAMENTAUS @ USA
USA vs Australia — Group D at stake
In Group D, USA sit 1st on 6 points and Australia sit 2nd on 3 points — three points reshape who advances. To lift the trophy: USA are 35-1 outsiders, Australia are 125-1 outsiders. The market has it the draw +3000 / Australia +7000.
COOLING OFFCIN @ NYY
Spencer Steer: .427 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Cam Schlittler
Spencer Steer's .427 OPS over the last 15 days (36 PA) trails his .758 season mark, down 0.331. Tonight he draws RHP Cam Schlittler — his weaker side: a .656 OPS vs RHP across 188 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKWSH @ TB
Nasim Nunez: 1.005 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 33 PA: a 1.005 OPS versus .579 for the season, 0.426 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
TOURNAMENTMAR @ SCO
What Scotland vs Morocco decides
In Group C, Scotland sit 2nd on 3 points and Morocco sit 1st on 4 points — three points reshape who advances. To lift the trophy: Scotland are 250-1 outsiders. The market has it the draw +1400 / Morocco -5000.
TOMORROWPIT @ COL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.54 ERA vs 7.2 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs PIT. A 4.54 ERA against a 7.2 expected ERA (2.66 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .269 vs .314 expected.
HEAT CHECKLAA @ OAK
Tyler Soderstrom: 1.077 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (47 PA) he is at a 1.077 OPS, up 0.275 on his .802 season mark. He has 13 home runs on the season.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
HEAT CHECKMIL @ ATL
Jackson Chourio: 1.136 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.136 OPS spans the last 15 days (60 PA) against a .918 season baseline, a 0.218 swing. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKCHW @ DET
Colson Montgomery: 1.228 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (31 PA) he is at a 1.228 OPS, up 0.387 on his .841 season mark. He has 20 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
SITUATIONALAustralia @ USA
Australia set up to contain
Confirmed XI: Australia named 5 at the back with a lone striker vs USA — a sheet built to absorb pressure and frustrate, not to chase the game. Lineups like this point to a low-event match: leans UNDER on total goals, and Australia on the handicap / draw-no-bet carries value the reputation-priced line underrates.
HEAT CHECKTOR @ CHC
Seiya Suzuki: 1.098 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (38 PA) he is at a 1.098 OPS, up 0.308 on his .790 season mark. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 3.5.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB, 1 BB
SITUATIONALHaiti @ Brazil
Haiti set up to contain
Confirmed XI: Haiti named 5 at the back with a lone striker vs Brazil — a sheet built to absorb pressure and frustrate, not to chase the game. Lineups like this point to a low-event match: leans UNDER on total goals, and Haiti on the handicap / draw-no-bet carries value the reputation-priced line underrates.
SITUATIONALTOR @ CHC
13.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for TOR
Relievers have absorbed 13.3 innings over the last 3 games (Simeon Woods Richardson (3) and Louis Varland (2.3) the heaviest). CHC's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 2-16
COOLING OFFWSH @ TB
Chandler Simpson: .228 OPS in L15 — draws LHP PJ Poulin
Chandler Simpson's .228 OPS over the last 15 days (25 PA) trails his .601 season mark, down 0.373. Tonight he draws LHP PJ Poulin — his weaker side: a .469 OPS vs LHP across 85 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
SITUATIONALSF @ MIA
SF's bullpen has covered 13 innings over the last 3 games
That is 13 relief innings in 3 games, led by Robbie Ray (6.3) and Caleb Kilian (1.7). MIA's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 3-4
STREAKHAI @ BRA
Brazil are unbeaten in 3 internationals
Across their last 5 World Cup matches they are 2-2-1 (D-D-W-L-W), carrying a 3-match unbeaten run into this fixture.
P team won 0-3
TOURNAMENTGROUP D
USA are the shortest group-winner chalk on the board
USA are -1000 to win Group D — the shortest group-winner price on the day. The next side in Group D, Türkiye, is out at +550.
TOURNAMENTPATH TO THE FINAL
Spain are the market's pick to reach the final from the other half
Behind the outright favourite, Spain carry the shortest price to reach the final at +260 — the side the market most expects to come through the other half of the bracket.
REGRESSIONLAA @ OAK
Zack Gelof: .286 AVG vs .224 xBA
Zack Gelof is hitting .286 against a .224 expected average (xBA) over 216 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .366 against a .291 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONMIL @ ATL
Andrew Vaughn: .347 AVG vs .287 xBA
Across 117 plate appearances, Andrew Vaughn carries a .347 average versus a .287 xBA. His wOBA sits at .419 against a .351 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
SITUATIONALLAA @ OAK
13 bullpen innings in 3 games for OAK
Relievers have absorbed 13 innings over the last 3 games (Luis Medina (3) and Jose Suarez (2.7) the heaviest). LAA's pen has thrown 8 over the same span.
P flagged side won 0-5
REGRESSIONWSH @ TB
Keibert Ruiz: .282 AVG vs .227 xBA
Keibert Ruiz's .282 average comes against a .227 expected (xBA) on 156 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .341 against a .268 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
TOURNAMENTGROUP JEOPARDY
Spain are slipping in Group H
Spain, a +550 title pick, sit 3rd in Group H on 1 point after 1 — outside the automatic places.
COOLING OFFMIL @ ATL
Dominic Smith: .448 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jacob Misiorowski
Dominic Smith's .448 OPS over the last 15 days (33 PA) trails his .754 season mark, down 0.306. Tonight he draws RHP Jacob Misiorowski — his stronger side: a .794 OPS vs RHP across 137 AB.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
TOMORROWCLE @ HOU
Spencer Arrighetti: 2.57 ERA vs 4.52 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CLE. A 2.57 ERA against a 4.52 expected ERA (1.95 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .200 vs .237 expected.
SITUATIONALCIN @ NYY
CIN's pen has logged 12.3 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 12.3 innings out of the pen — Chris Paddack (4.3) and Chase Petty (2.3) carried the load. NYY's pen has thrown 9.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 0-5
COOLING OFFCIN @ NYY
Ben Rice: .783 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Rhett Lowder
Ben Rice's .783 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .993 season mark, down 0.21. Tonight he draws RHP Rhett Lowder — his stronger side: a 1.042 OPS vs RHP across 172 AB.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
SITUATIONALPAR @ TUR
Türkiye arrive on 5 days' rest; Paraguay have had 7
Türkiye come into the fixture on 5 days' rest while Paraguay have had 7 days' — a 2-day recovery gap in the June 20 meeting.
COOLING OFFMIL @ ATL
Ozzie Albies: .591 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jacob Misiorowski
Ozzie Albies's .591 OPS over the last 15 days (41 PA) trails his .762 season mark, down 0.171. Tonight he draws RHP Jacob Misiorowski — his weaker side: a .726 OPS vs RHP across 156 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
SITUATIONALWSH @ TB
WSH's bullpen has covered 12 innings over the last 3 games
That is 12 relief innings in 3 games, led by Brad Lord (3) and Gus Varland (2). TB's pen has thrown 8 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 2-5
REGRESSIONCHW @ DET
Matt Vierling: .200 AVG vs .248 xBA
Matt Vierling's .200 average comes against a .248 expected (xBA) on 200 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .262 against a .305 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
REGRESSIONCHW @ DET
Randal Grichuk: .260 AVG vs .308 xBA
Randal Grichuk's .260 average comes against a .308 expected (xBA) on 102 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .344 against a .382 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-3, 6 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONMIL @ ATL
Christian Yelich: .275 AVG vs .229 xBA
Christian Yelich is hitting .275 against a .229 expected average (xBA) over 187 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .340 against a .297 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
TOURNAMENTGROUP C
Group C is the tightest group-winner market
Group C's group-winner market is the most open on the board: Brazil and Morocco both priced inside +250.
COOLING OFFSF @ MIA
Daniel Susac: .422 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Lake Bachar
Daniel Susac's .422 OPS over the last 15 days (25 PA) trails his .703 season mark, down 0.281. Tonight he draws RHP Lake Bachar — his weaker side: a .649 OPS vs RHP across 62 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
BALLPARKWSH @ TB
Griffin Jax's ERA jumps to 4.86 at Tropicana Field
Griffin Jax carries a 4.86 ERA over 7 games (16.7 IP) at tonight's park vs 2.96 across 27.3 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .217 off him here. He starts here tonight.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
REPLACEMENTCHW @ DET
Miguel Vargas (1.115 vs LHP) replaces Munetaka Murakami at 1B tonight
Miguel Vargas draws LHP Tarik Skubal from the 1st spot. He carries a 1.115 OPS vs LHP (77 AB) — a favorable platoon spot relative to his .837 season line. On the injury report for 18 days (Hamstring).
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
COOLING OFFTOR @ CHC
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: .581 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Ben Brown
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s .581 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .739 season mark, down 0.158. Tonight he draws RHP Ben Brown — his weaker side: a .705 OPS vs RHP across 201 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
BALLPARKCIN @ NYY
At Yankee Stadium, Cam Schlittler pitches to a 3.03 ERA
Cam Schlittler starts at Yankee Stadium tonight, where his ERA is 3.03 over 32.7 innings — 1.12 on a 56.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .256 off him here.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 13 K
REPLACEMENTTOR @ CHC
Jesus Sanchez (.844 vs RHP) replaces Addison Barger at RF tonight
Jesus Sanchez draws RHP Ben Brown from the 3rd spot. He carries a .844 OPS vs RHP (176 AB) — a favorable platoon spot relative to his .785 season line. On the injury report since yesterday (Elbow).
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REPLACEMENTTOR @ CHC
Nathan Lukes (.842 vs RHP) replaces Daulton Varsho at CF tonight
Nathan Lukes draws RHP Ben Brown from the 6th spot. He carries a .842 OPS vs RHP (108 AB) — a favorable platoon spot relative to his .774 season line. On the injury report since yesterday (Wrist).
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
REPLACEMENTCHW @ DET
Everson Pereira (RF) is out for CHW — Junior Perez starts in his place tonight
Junior Perez slots in at RF (bats 6th tonight). On the injury report since yesterday (Concussion).
P 2-for-3, 5 TB
SITUATIONALQAT @ CAN
Canada created the better chances
Canada led the xG 4.6–0.2 and took the result to match (6–0).
TOMORROWCHW @ DET
Troy Melton: 2.81 ERA vs 4.34 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CHW. A 2.81 ERA against a 4.34 expected ERA (1.54 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .213 vs .272 expected.
REGRESSIONTOR @ CHC
Ben Brown: 1.74 ERA vs 3.1 xERA
Ben Brown carries a 1.74 ERA against a 3.1 expected ERA (1.36 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .186 off him vs a .222 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
TOURNAMENTSUREST TO ADVANCE
Norway are the surest bet to advance
Norway are -10000 to escape their group out of Group I — the shortest to-advance price on the board.
TOMORROWBAL @ LAD
Trevor Rogers: 5.86 ERA vs 4.37 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs LAD. A 5.86 ERA against a 4.37 expected ERA (1.49 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .279 vs .261 expected.
TOURNAMENTHAI @ BRA
Brazil vs Haiti: the group picture
In Group C, Brazil sit 3rd on 1 point and Haiti sit 4th on 0 points — three points reshape who advances. The market has it Brazil -900 / the draw +950 / Haiti +2000.
FIRST INNINGMIL @ ATL
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of MIL @ ATL
ATL games have produced a first-inning run in 8 of their last 10; MIL games in 7 of 10. Early runs have been the rule, not the exception.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
TOURNAMENTPAR @ TUR
Türkiye vs Paraguay — Group D at stake
In Group D, Türkiye sit 3rd on 0 points and Paraguay sit 4th on 0 points — three points reshape who advances. To lift the trophy: Türkiye are 150-1 outsiders, Paraguay are 450-1 outsiders. The market has it Türkiye +105 / the draw +240 / Paraguay +285.
SITUATIONALCOD @ POR
Portugal dominated the ball but only drew
Portugal held 75% of possession yet could only draw (1–1) — control without the cutting edge.
TOMORROWBOS @ SEA
Emerson Hancock: 3.28 ERA vs 4.46 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs BOS. A 3.28 ERA against a 4.46 expected ERA (1.18 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .220 vs .255 expected.
TOMORROWNYM @ PHI
Cristopher Sánchez: 1.82 ERA vs 2.94 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs NYM. A 1.82 ERA against a 2.94 expected ERA (1.12 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .235 vs .222 expected.
TOMORROWMIL @ ATL
Chris Sale: 2.3 ERA vs 3.44 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIL. A 2.3 ERA against a 3.44 expected ERA (1.14 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .215 vs .234 expected.
TOMORROWSF @ MIA
Max Meyer: 2.75 ERA vs 3.8 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SF. A 2.75 ERA against a 3.8 expected ERA (1.05 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .201 vs .230 expected.
BALLPARKCHW @ DET
Tarik Skubal owns a 3.55 ERA at Comerica Park — 2.55 everywhere else
Across 2 games (12.7 IP) at this venue, Tarik Skubal has a 3.55 ERA against 2.55 at his other parks (35.3 IP). Hitters bat .205 off him here. He draws the start here tonight.
P 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
REPLACEMENTTOR @ CHC
Davis Schneider (.714 vs RHP) replaces Lenyn Sosa at 2B tonight
Davis Schneider draws RHP Ben Brown from the 8th spot. He carries a .714 OPS vs RHP (40 AB) — a favorable platoon spot relative to his .647 season line. On the injury report since yesterday (Wrist).
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
REPLACEMENTCHW @ DET
Wenceel Perez (RF) is out for DET — Trei Cruz starts in his place tonight
Trei Cruz slots in at RF (bats 9th tonight). Hit the injury report today (Face).
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
REPLACEMENTCHW @ DET
Austin Hays (LF) is out for CHW — Sam Antonacci starts in his place tonight
Sam Antonacci slots in at LF (bats 7th tonight) and carries a .780 OPS / .281 AVG this season. On the injury report for 10 days (Calf).
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
BATTER VS ARMTOR @ CHC
Kevin Gausman vs Ian Happ: 1-for-10, 5 K
Ian Happ has managed only 1-for-10 (.100) off Kevin Gausman, striking out 5 times in 10 career at-bats — they meet again tonight.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
SITUATIONALParaguay @ Türkiye
Türkiye v Paraguay: projected XI
Likely lineups from each side's last match — confirmed sheets post ~2h before kickoff.

Graded results

Games

W
Mexico ML +100
WC · 0-1
L
Over 2.5 +115
WC · 0-1
L
Blue Jays ML +102
MLB · 2-16
W
USA ML -160
WC · 0-2
W
Under 2.5 -110
WC · 0-2
W
Morocco ML -145
WC · 1-0
W
Under 2.5 -160
WC · 1-0
W
White Sox +1.5 -126
MLB · 3-2
W
Yankees -1.5 -126
MLB · 0-4
W
Rays ML -154
MLB · 2-5
L
Brewers ML -172
MLB · 2-6
L
Cardinals ML -120
MLB · 12-16
L
Giants ML -104
MLB · 3-4
W
Rangers ML -166
MLB · 7-9
W
Astros ML -124
MLB · 3-9
L
Pirates ML -136
MLB · 3-4
W
Athletics ML -162
MLB · 11-12
W
Diamondbacks ML -168
MLB · 5-9
L
Mariners ML -112
MLB · 6-2
W
Dodgers ML -198
MLB · 5-6
W
Brazil ML -900
WC · 0-3
W
Under 3.5 +105
WC · 0-3
L
Türkiye ML +105
WC · 1-0
W
Under 2.5 -140
WC · 1-0

Props

L
Achraf Hakimi · over
Morocco @ Scotland · Actual 0
L
Alec Burleson · over
Cardinals @ Royals · Actual 0
W
Antonio Sanabria · under
Paraguay @ Türkiye · Actual 0
L
Ben Brown · over
Blue Jays @ Cubs · Actual 4
W
Ben Rice · over
Reds @ Yankees · Actual 1
L
Bryan Reynolds · over
Pirates @ Rockies · Actual 2
L
Bryan Reynolds · over
Pirates @ Rockies · Actual 0
L
Bryce Eldridge · over
Giants @ Marlins · Actual 0
L
Byron Buxton · over
Twins @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Christian Pulišić · over
Australia @ USA · Actual 0
L
Christian Walker · over
Guardians @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Cody Bellinger · over
Reds @ Yankees · Actual 0
L
Colson Montgomery · over
White Sox @ Tigers · Actual 0
W
Corbin Carroll · over
Twins @ Diamondbacks · Actual 6
W
Dillon Dingler · over
White Sox @ Tigers · Actual 5
W
Drake Baldwin · under
Brewers @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Freddie Freeman · over
Orioles @ Dodgers · Actual 1
L
Hunter Goodman · over
Pirates @ Rockies · Actual 0
L
Hunter Goodman · over
Pirates @ Rockies · Actual 0
W
Jac Caglianone · over
Cardinals @ Royals · Actual 1
W
Jackson Chourio · over
Brewers @ Braves · Actual 2
W
Jackson Merrill · under
Padres @ Rangers · Actual 0
W
Jake Burger · over
Padres @ Rangers · Actual 2
L
James Wood · over
Nationals @ Rays · Actual 0
L
James Wood · over
Nationals @ Rays · Actual 0
W
Jazz Chisholm Jr. · over
Reds @ Yankees · Actual 1
W
JJ Bleday · under
Reds @ Yankees · Actual 0
L
JJ Wetherholt · over
Cardinals @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Jo Adell · over
Angels @ Athletics · Actual 0
L
Johny Placide · over
Haiti @ Brazil · Actual 2
L
Junior Caminero · over
Nationals @ Rays · Actual 0
W
Ketel Marte · over
Twins @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1
L
Lawrence Shankland · over
Morocco @ Scotland · Actual 0
L
Logan O'Hoppe · over
Angels @ Athletics · Actual 0
L
Mathew Ryan · over
Australia @ USA · Actual 0
L
Matt Olson · over
Brewers @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Miguel Almirón · under
Paraguay @ Türkiye · Actual 0
W
Nasim Nunez · over
Nationals @ Rays · Actual 1
W
Nick Kurtz · over
Angels @ Athletics · Actual 2
L
Nick Kurtz · over
Angels @ Athletics · Actual 0
L
Otto Lopez · over
Giants @ Marlins · Actual 1
L
Pete Alonso · under
Orioles @ Dodgers · Actual 4
W
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Blue Jays @ Cubs · Actual 3
L
Ranger Suarez · under
Red Sox @ Mariners · Actual 20
L
Raphinha · over
Haiti @ Brazil · Actual 0
L
Rhys Hoskins · under
Guardians @ Astros · Actual 4
L
Royce Lewis · under
Twins @ Diamondbacks · Actual 3
W
Sal Stewart · under
Reds @ Yankees · Actual 0
L
Salvador Perez · under
Cardinals @ Royals · Actual 5
L
Spencer Torkelson · over
White Sox @ Tigers · Actual 0
W
Willson Contreras · over
Red Sox @ Mariners · Actual 2
L
Yordan Alvarez · over
Guardians @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Yordan Alvarez · over
Guardians @ Astros · Actual 1