Daily archive

2026-05-10

The stored Gary board for Sun, May 10. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB12:15 PM

Nationals @ Marlins

We head to loanDepot park for an early Sunday rubber match where the Marlins look to ride the momentum of yesterday’s dramatic walk-off win to a series victory. The clear focal point of this matchup is the massive disparity in starting pitching efficiency. While Sandy Alcantara has shown some uncharacteristic volatility lately, his underlying metrics—specifically a 3.45 xERA compared to his 4.01 ERA—suggest he is due for a significant rebound. More importantly, Alcantara is a certified workhorse, averaging 6.4 innings per start, which is a luxury for a Miami bullpen that threw heavy innings in Saturday’s slugfest. He also holds a psychological edge over Washington’s core; Luis Garcia Jr. is hitting just .095 lifetime against him, and CJ Abrams has struggled with a .231 career mark in this matchup. On the other side, Cade Cavalli is playing with fire. A 1.70 WHIP is a recipe for disaster against a Miami lineup that is currently built on high-contact and situational hitting. Xavier Edwards is scorching with a .405 average over his last 10 games, and Otto Lopez is right behind him at .342. Cavalli’s inability to pitch deep into games—averaging just 4.3 innings per start—means the Nationals (19-21) will likely have to ask for 14 or 15 outs from a bullpen that already ranks 25th in the majors with a 4.80 ERA. In a series finale where every arm is tired, that is a bridge too far. The Nationals have been surprisingly effective road warriors this season, but their offense is currently top-heavy and struggling for consistency. James Wood is in a pronounced slump, hitting just .114 over his last 10 contests, and his home/road splits highlight a significant dip in production away from D.C. Between Alcantara’s ability to navigate the order multiple times and the Marlins’ (18-22) ability to generate traffic against a walk-prone starter, Miami is in a prime position to capitalize on their home-field comfort and secure the series win.

Marlins ML-134

CONF

78%

MLB1:35 PM

Athletics @ Orioles

Sunlight drapes over the warehouse at Camden Yards as the Athletics look to hammer the final nail into a home sweep of the struggling Orioles. While the market has this priced as a pick’em, the current trajectory of these two clubs suggests a much wider gap in stability and execution than the odds reflect. Luis Severino enters this finale in peak form, having surrendered just one earned run in each of his last three starts for a 1.45 ERA over that span. He holds a significant psychological edge today, boasting more career wins against Baltimore than any other franchise. While his elevated day-game ERA is a noted statistical outlier, his recent command and historical comfort against this organization give him a clear advantage over a Baltimore pitching staff that is currently being held together by tape and tactical experiments. The Orioles are forced into an opener-bulk scenario with Keegan Akin and Chris Bassitt due to a catastrophic injury list that recently added starter Cade Povich and shortstop Luis Vazquez to a group of nearly a dozen sidelined players. Akin carries a bloated 11.12 ERA into his opening role, and Bassitt has been plagued by a 1.91 WHIP that invites constant traffic. This creates a high-leverage environment for an Oakland lineup that features five left-handed bats, including Nick Kurtz and his major-league-best 33-game on-base streak. With an 8 mph breeze blowing directly out toward the short 318-foot right-field porch, Oakland’s lefties and the scorching-hot Shea Langeliers—who has blasted six home runs in his last ten games—are perfectly positioned to punish any mistakes from a struggling Bassitt. The ultimate separator in this contest is defensive execution. The Athletics have been one of the fundamentally soundest teams in baseball, committing only eight errors all season, whereas the Orioles’ infield has been in a state of crisis with 26 miscues. In the first two games of this series, Baltimore’s inability to execute routine plays directly led to multi-run innings for Oakland. Against a surging Athletics squad (21-18) that thrives on disciplined hitting and error-free baseball, a depleted and mistake-prone Orioles team (17-23) is unlikely to find the consistency needed to avoid the sweep, particularly with elite closer Ryan Helsley still unavailable to lock down the late innings.

Athletics ML-108

CONF

78%

MLB1:35 PM

Rays @ Red Sox

Sunlight filters through the Green Monster at Fenway as the Rays and Red Sox square off in a rested rubber match following yesterday’s rainout. While the standings show a significant gap between these AL East rivals, today’s pitching matchup tells a much different story that heavily favors the home side. The primary factor here is the massive discrepancy between surface-level performance and underlying stability. Red Sox phenom Payton Tolle has been nothing short of dominant, carrying a 0.74 WHIP and a massive 11.7 K/9 that is fully supported by his 2.03 xERA. Conversely, Rays starter Nick Martinez is the league’s premier regression candidate. Despite a sparkling 1.71 ERA, his xERA sits at a bloated 3.90, and his strikeout rate has plummeted to just 6.0 per nine innings. In a park like Fenway where the wind is blowing out to center field, a pitcher who relies on contact and luck is playing with fire. Tolle’s ability to miss bats entirely makes him much more resilient to the atmospheric conditions and the park’s unique dimensions compared to Martinez's high-contact approach. The tactical advantages for Boston extend to the basepaths and the lineup card. Rays catcher Nick Fortes has been a massive liability defensively, allowing 27 stolen bases on 29 attempts this season. With elite speedsters like Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela in the Red Sox order, Boston has a clear path to manufacturing runs if Martinez manages to keep the ball in the park. Furthermore, the Red Sox are countering Martinez with five left-handed or switch hitters who are well-positioned to exploit the idiosyncratic dimensions of Fenway. While the Rays possess more overall bullpen depth, the return of Justin Slaten gives Boston the necessary bridge to get the ball to Aroldis Chapman. In a high-stakes series finale, I trust the starter with the elite swing-and-miss stuff over the veteran overperforming his metrics in a hitter-friendly environment.

Red Sox ML-144

CONF

72%

MLB1:37 PM

Angels @ Blue Jays

The Angels and Blue Jays wrap up their series at a climate-controlled Rogers Centre, where the air is still but the storylines are swirling. Toronto is looking for the sweep after a 14-run explosion yesterday, but the underlying numbers for this finale suggest the pendulum is ready to swing back toward the visitors. The pitching matchup is the primary driver here. While Jose Soriano’s 1.74 ERA is buoyed by some good fortune—his 3.87 xERA suggests regression is looming—he has already proven he can dismantle this Toronto lineup, having thrown five scoreless innings against them back in April. More importantly, he faces a patchwork Blue Jays pitching staff that is leaning on a "bulk man" in Eric Lauer, who carries a bloated 6.03 ERA and has been vocal about his frustration with not starting. This creates a massive advantage for the Angels' middle-of-the-order power. Mike Trout is a notorious road warrior with a 1.123 OPS away from home and an elite .974 OPS against left-handed pitching like Lauer. With Jorge Soler providing protection, the Angels are perfectly constructed to punish a struggling lefty who is out of his rhythm. The late-inning outlook further cements the case for Anaheim. Because yesterday was a blowout, the Angels' primary high-leverage arms are completely rested. Louis Varland has been arguably the most dominant reliever in baseball this season, sporting a 0.46 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Conversely, Toronto’s late-inning situation is precarious; longtime closer Jordan Romano is in the midst of a nightmare season with a 10.13 ERA. If this game is close in the 7th or 8th inning, the Angels have the definitive advantage in reliability. Furthermore, the Blue Jays just lost Addison Barger to a late scratch today due to elbow soreness, shortening a lineup that is already missing key pieces. In a "pride spot" to avoid the sweep, the Angels hold the edge in starting pitching quality and bullpen stability.

Angels ML-110

CONF

65%

MLB1:40 PM

Astros @ Reds

It’s a Mother’s Day rubber match at Great American Ball Park as the Reds and Astros look to claim a series victory in what has been a tale of two very different ballgames so far. While the Astros dominated the opener, Cincinnati’s narrow 3-1 win yesterday provided a much-needed pressure release for a team that had previously dropped eight straight, and they come into today with a clear tactical path to victory. The biggest factor in this matchup is the massive discrepancy in expected pitching volume. Cincinnati’s Andrew Abbott is finding his rhythm, posting a 1.54 ERA over his last two starts while proving he can navigate a lineup into the sixth inning. Contrast that with Houston’s Kai-Wei Teng, who has functioned exclusively as a three-inning opener recently. This strategy forces the Astros to rely on a bullpen that has been in a total tailspin, posting a 6.12 ERA this month. Asking struggling arms like Bryan Abreu to cover six-plus innings in the league’s most hitter-friendly environment is a dangerous gamble, especially with the wind blowing out toward the short porch in right field. Furthermore, the Astros are dangerously thin at the game’s most critical defensive positions. With the recent losses of Yainer Diaz and Jeremy Pena to the injury list, Houston is starting Cesar Salazar behind the plate and Nick Allen at shortstop. Salazar is a major downgrade in run-game management, providing a permanent green light for Elly De La Cruz and the Reds’ aggressive base-runners. Cincinnati’s left-handed power specialists, specifically JJ Bleday and Nathaniel Lowe, have elite metrics against right-handed pitching and are perfectly suited to exploit Teng early or punish the Houston relievers later. In a small park where home runs and stolen bases often decide the outcome, the Reds hold the situational and defensive edges necessary to secure the series.

Cincinnati Reds ML-112

CONF

68%

MLB2:10 PM

Yankees @ Brewers

High-stakes matinee in Milwaukee as the New York Yankees look to salvage the series finale and avoid a sweep against a surging Brewers squad. The headline today is the season debut of Carlos Rodón, who returns to the mound seven months after elbow surgery to provide a desperate boost to a rotation missing both Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil. While Rodón’s Triple-A rehab stats were uneven—highlighted by a 7.11 ERA and struggles with the long ball—he finds himself in a perfect situational matchup for his return. The Brewers lineup has been ice-cold against southpaws this season, ranking 28th in the majors in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Key contributors like Brice Turang see a massive production dip against lefties, with Turang’s OPS falling from an elite 1.029 against righties to a mediocre .636 against southpaws. Even if Rodón shows some initial rust, his high-velocity left-handed profile is designed to exploit the specific weaknesses at the top of the Milwaukee order. On the other side, Logan Henderson has been a statistical darling according to advanced metrics, carrying a 1.45 xERA that suggests he is pitching far better than his 4.50 surface ERA. However, he now has to navigate a Yankees lineup that is screaming for positive regression. Despite being held to just three runs in the first two games, New York (26-14) has maintained a 47% hard-hit rate this series. With Aaron Judge and Ben Rice both posting OPS marks north of 1.000 against right-handed pitching, Henderson is facing the most dangerous power duo in baseball. In a controlled environment with the roof closed, the Yankees’ ability to generate elite exit velocity should finally translate into runs. Expect the Yankees to lean on their experience to avoid the sweep and maintain their standing in the AL East.

Yankees ML-102

CONF

68%

MLB2:35 PM

Cubs @ Rangers

The atmosphere is electric at Globe Life Field as the Rangers look to build on yesterday’s momentum and clinch a series win against the National League’s top-seeded Cubs. While Chicago has been the most consistent team in baseball through the first quarter of the season, this specific matchup presents a steep uphill battle for the visitors. Jacob deGrom is stepping onto the mound in his favorite environment, carrying a microscopic 1.62 ERA at home and an even better 1.50 ERA in day games this season. Although he is coming off a rare six-run stumble in his last start, his underlying metrics—specifically an elite 11.2 K/9—suggest that his power and command are still top-tier. On the other side, Jameson Taillon is a major regression candidate. Despite a functional surface ERA, his 6.01 FIP is a flashing red light, fueled by a massive 11 home runs allowed in just over 40 innings. Texas is starting five left-handed hitters today specifically to attack Taillon’s 5.33 ERA against lefties, putting him in a precarious position from the first pitch. The disparity extends to the late innings, where the Rangers boast an MLB-best 2.93 bullpen ERA. High-leverage arms like Jacob Latz and Jakob Junis are fully rested after yesterday's efficient shutout, while the Cubs are navigating a pitching crisis. The fresh loss of Hunter Harvey to a triceps injury further thins a Chicago bullpen that is already missing several key pieces. If Taillon struggles early or gives up the long ball as his metrics suggest, the Cubs simply lack the healthy middle-relief depth to keep this close. After neutralizing Chicago’s hottest bats yesterday, the Rangers have the tactical and environmental advantage to secure the series behind their ace.

Rangers ML-122

CONF

75%

MLB4:05 PM

Pirates @ Giants

The fog is settling over McCovey Cove for this high-stakes series finale as the Pirates look to ride the momentum of yesterday’s historic offensive explosion to a series victory at Oracle Park. While the Giants are technically the favorites at home, the vibes in San Francisco have shifted dramatically following a 13-3 blowout and a roster that feels like it’s in a state of chaotic transition. The biggest factor today is the specific matchup between Tyler Mahle and a Pirates lineup that is absolutely lethal against right-handed pitching. Brandon Lowe enters this contest with a massive 1.117 OPS against righties, and Ryan O’Hearn isn't far behind with an .877 mark. When you combine that power with Oneil Cruz’s historical success in this ballpark and Nick Gonzales coming off a four-hit game, it is hard to see Mahle navigating this order without taking significant damage. Mahle has been better lately, but his 1.53 WHIP suggests he is always one mistake away from a multi-run inning, especially with the wind blowing out toward left field today. Beyond the box score, the Giants are reeling from a "shock to the system" weekend. Losing ace Logan Webb to the IL and trading veteran defensive anchor Patrick Bailey mid-series has left this team looking vulnerable. Starting a rookie catcher in Jesus Rodriguez to manage a high-traffic pitcher like Mahle is a recipe for defensive lapses, particularly against a Pirates team that loves to test the run game. If this game is close late, the advantage shifts even further toward Pittsburgh. The Pirates have a lockdown high-leverage arm in Gregory Soto (1.42 ERA), while the Giants’ relief corps has been shaky at best, with closer Ryan Walker sporting a bloated 6.46 ERA. I'm backing the team that’s having fun and hitting everything in sight.

Pittsburgh Pirates ML+108

CONF

72%

MLB4:10 PM

Braves @ Dodgers

The afternoon sun is beating down on Chavez Ravine as the National League’s two heavyweights meet for a high-stakes rubber match under the clear skies of Dodger Stadium. While the market remains enamored with Justin Wrobleski’s pristine 1.25 ERA, the underlying metrics suggest the Dodgers’ rookie is a ticking time bomb heading into this matchup. Wrobleski is sporting a massive 4.23 xERA—nearly three full runs higher than his surface number—and his league-low 3.8 K/9 rate is a dangerous outlier for a starter. He relies almost exclusively on defensive support and batted-ball luck, but that luck is likely to run out against an Atlanta offense that ranks near the top of the league in power and specializes in punishing left-handed pitching. The Braves’ lineup is tactically designed to exploit a contact-oriented lefty like Wrobleski, especially with the temperature at a warm 79 degrees and the wind blowing out to center field. Ozzie Albies is a perennial southpaw-crusher with a 1.029 OPS against lefties this season, and rookie Drake Baldwin has been equally lethal with a .944 OPS in that split. Unlike Wrobleski, Braves starter Bryce Elder provides a much more stable floor; his 8.3 K/9 and 2.83 xERA prove that his dominance is rooted in missing bats rather than relying on gloves. Elder’s ability to generate swing-and-miss stuff gives the Braves a significant advantage in preventing the "big inning" that Wrobleski’s high contact rate invites. Late-game management further tips the scales toward Atlanta. The Braves' bullpen receives a massive boost today with the reinstatement of closer Raisel Iglesias, who joins a fully rested Robert Suarez (0.57 ERA) to form a dominant back-end bridge. In contrast, the Dodgers' relief corps is a "MASH unit" missing three high-leverage arms including Edwin Diaz and Brock Stewart. Atlanta effectively "broke the hex" at Dodger Stadium with a 7-2 blowout yesterday to snap an eight-game losing streak here, and with the best road record in baseball (15-7), they possess the momentum and the superior pitching infrastructure to take this series as a road underdog.

Braves ML+116

CONF

72%

MLB4:10 PM

Mets @ Diamondbacks

The desert sun is beating down on the closed roof of Chase Field as the Mets and Diamondbacks prepare for a high-stakes series finale. Both teams are searching for identity in May, but today’s tactical matchups provide a clear roadmap for the home squad to secure this rubber match. The centerpiece of this game is the Diamondbacks’ absolute dominance against left-handed pitching. Arizona enters today ranked second in the majors in batting average against southpaws, which spells significant trouble for the Mets' plan to use David Peterson for bulk relief. Corbin Carroll has been a specific terror in these situations, boasting a .417 average and a 1.140 OPS when facing lefties this season. When you add in switch-hitters like Ketel Marte and Ildemaro Vargas—who is hitting .366 against lefties—the Diamondbacks have a lineup perfectly constructed to dismantle Peterson’s approach, regardless of his recent improvement in the bulk role. While Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez has shown some concerning regression metrics like a 4.72 xERA and struggles in day games, the Mets' offense is currently ill-equipped to exploit those vulnerabilities. New York is severely shorthanded without their usual middle-of-the-order anchors, and the active hitters have been abysmal against left-handers, ranking 26th in the league in wRC+. Even Juan Soto has seen his production crater in same-side matchups, hitting just .182 against lefties this year. Rodriguez’s veteran experience should allow him to navigate a "snakebitten" Mets lineup that recorded 14 hard-hit balls yesterday but only managed a single run. In a series where every run has been earned the hard way, the final three innings favor Arizona decisively. The Diamondbacks can turn to Juan Morillo and Paul Sewald, who have both maintained elite WHIPs under 0.75, to protect a late lead. Contrast that with a Mets bullpen featuring a struggling Devin Williams and his 5.68 ERA, and the path to victory for Arizona looks much more stable. Arizona’s ability to generate production against lefties combined with a lockdown back end gives them the definitive edge in this finale.

Arizona Diamondbacks ML-116

CONF

70%

MLB4:10 PM

Cardinals @ Padres

The marine layer is lifting over Petco Park as Walker Buehler looks to play the role of the stopper and salvage a series split against a surging Cardinals squad. While both teams enter today with identical 23-16 records, the underlying pitching metrics tell two very different stories about how we got here, and in the sun-drenched finale of this four-game set, the advantage tilts heavily toward the home side. Walker Buehler might carry a bloated seasonal ERA, but his 4.72 xERA suggests he has been victimized by bad luck more than bad stuff. At Petco Park, he remains a different beast, maintaining a 3.20 ERA and a perfect 3-0 career record in five starts against the Cardinals. He faces a Kyle Leahy who is a prime candidate for regression; Leahy's 4.93 ERA masks a massive 5.96 xERA and a dangerously high 1.64 WHIP. Leahy has surrendered six home runs in just 20 road innings this year and struggles immensely in the afternoon, posting a 7.20 ERA in day games. Against a Padres lineup that has been obliterating the ball recently—posting a 53.6% hard-hit rate over the last three games—Leahy is walking into a buzzsaw. The situational factors also favor San Diego. The Padres have won nine consecutive Sunday games as home favorites, a trend that speaks to their ability to close out series in front of their home crowd. While the expected absence of Mason Miller for the day following a high-pitch save yesterday is a concern, Buehler’s recent form and the Padres' ability to limit the "extra out" with elite fielding provide the stability needed to bridge the late innings. With Jordan Walker and Ivan Herrera providing the only real consistent threats for St. Louis recently, expect Buehler’s pedigree and the Padres' power surge to dictate the pace of this finale.

Padres ML-132

CONF

65%

MLB7:20 PM

Tigers @ Royals

Welcome to the series finale at Kauffman Stadium, where the sun is setting on a Kansas City Royals team looking for the sweep while the Detroit Tigers desperately search for a way to stop the bleeding. The atmosphere in Kansas City is electric for this primetime showdown, but the reality on the field for Detroit is one of pure survival as they navigate a catastrophic rotation crisis. The defining factor tonight is the disparity in roster stability and the impact of a fresh injury to the Tigers' offense. Detroit enters this matchup without its primary power source, Kerry Carpenter, who was sidelined with a fresh AC joint sprain today. This leaves a massive hole in a lineup that has already been struggling to generate momentum, managing only four hits in their most recent outing. While Royals starter Noah Cameron has struggled with a 5.40 ERA and a concerning 6.32 xERA, he is pitching in a venue that caters to his survival. Kauffman Stadium is a notorious pitcher's park, and with the wind blowing in from left field at 7 mph, the right-handed power of Spencer Torkelson and Dillon Dingler is likely to be neutralized. Cameron’s command issues are a risk, but the Tigers currently lack the healthy depth to consistently punish him. Conversely, the Royals' bullpen is in an ideal position to protect an early lead. Following Michael Wacha’s seven-inning gem yesterday, nearly every key reliever is fresh, including Lucas Erceg and the elite Daniel Lynch IV, who has been lights-out with a 1.72 ERA and a microscopic 0.57 WHIP. On the other side, the Tigers are forced into a second consecutive bullpen game with a staff that has shouldered a heavy workload over the last 48 hours. The defensive gap is equally stark: Detroit has committed 23 errors this season, while the Royals lead the division with a .992 fielding percentage. Expect Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia to use their elite speed to pressure a patchwork Tigers infield that is currently missing its veteran anchors. With momentum, home-field advantage, and a rested relief corps on their side, the Royals are the clear play to finish the job tonight.

Royals ML-122

CONF

85%

Player props

MLB · Nationals @ Marlins

Xavier Edwards

Xavier Edwards is currently the engine of the Marlins offense, hitting .405 over his last 10 games with a consistent ability to reach base and score. He faces Cade Cavalli, whose 1.70 WHIP is a major liability; Cavalli allows nearly two baserunners per inning and has surrendered 7+ hits in three of his last five starts. As the leadoff hitter, Edwards will benefit from maximum plate appearance volume (4-5 PA) against a pitcher who struggles with both command and hit suppression. With high-contact hitters like Otto Lopez batting behind him, Edwards is in a prime position to clear this line through a combination of his own hits and runs scored.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-140

· Xavier Edwards .405 AVG over last 10 games
· Cade Cavalli 1.70 WHIP in 2026 starts
· Edwards has recorded multiple hits in 6 of his last 10 games

MLB · Nationals @ Marlins

Cade Cavalli

Cade Cavalli's primary struggle in 2026 has been efficiency and command, evidenced by a staggering 34 walks in just 34.2 innings pitched. This lack of control leads to inflated pitch counts early in games, often resulting in premature exits.

UNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs-150

· Cavalli has failed to complete 5.1 innings in 3 of his last 5 starts
· Cavalli has issued 34 walks in 34.2 innings this season
· Marlins lineup features two hitters with .340+ averages over their last 10 games (Edwards, Lopez)

MLB · Athletics @ Orioles

Shea Langeliers

Shea Langeliers enters this game as the most dangerous hitter in the Athletics' lineup, slashing .364 with six home runs and 10 RBIs over his last 10 games. This surge is backed by a favorable matchup against Orioles left-hander Keegan Akin, who enters with a dismal 11.12 ERA.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+100

· Shea Langeliers: .364 AVG, 6 HR, 10 RBI in last 10 games
· Langeliers vs LHP: .375 AVG, 1.08 OPS this season
· Keegan Akin (OPP SP): 11.12 ERA in 2026

MLB · Athletics @ Orioles

Pete Alonso

While the Athletics are surging, Pete Alonso and the Orioles are in a significant offensive malaise. Alonso has failed to record an extra-base hit in his last 10 games, hitting only .250 with zero home runs and one RBI in that span.

UNDER 1.5 Total Bases-148

· Pete Alonso: 0 HR, 1 RBI, .250 AVG over last 10 games
· Alonso has stayed under 1.5 Total Bases in 9 of his last 10 games
· Luis Severino (OPP SP): 1 ER allowed in each of his last 3 starts

MLB · Rockies @ Phillies

Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper is back in the starting lineup after missing a game with a migraine, and the conditions are perfectly aligned for his power profile. He faces Tomoyuki Sugano, whose respectable 3.41 ERA is heavily contradicted by a massive 6.2 xERA and a .383 expected wOBA allowed.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-105

· Bryce Harper .353 AVG (12-for-34) with 2 HR over his last 10 games.
· Tomoyuki Sugano 6.2 xERA and .383 xwOBA allowed (Baseball Savant xStats).
· Weather: Sunny, 79°F, Wind 8 mph blowing Out to Right Field.

MLB · Rockies @ Phillies

Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber provides elite volume as the Phillies' leadoff hitter, guaranteed 4-5 plate appearances in a high-total (8.5) game. He faces a right-handed starter in Tomoyuki Sugano who struggles with hard contact and expected metrics.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-139

· Kyle Schwarber leads the NL with 14 home runs in 2026.
· Schwarber averages 1.0 hits+runs+rbis per game despite early-season struggles.
· Rockies pitching staff has a 6.60 ERA over their last 10 games.

MLB · Rays @ Red Sox

Payton Tolle

Payton Tolle is a high-strikeout lefty with an elite 11.7 K/9 rate through his first four appearances of 2026. His underlying metrics are exceptional, with a 2.03 xERA and a .228 xwOBA that suggest his early success is sustainable. While the Rays have some high-contact hitters at the top of the lineup, the middle and bottom of the order (Caminero, Mullins, DeLuca, Walls) offer significant swing-and-miss opportunities for a pitcher with Tolle's stuff. Having hit the over on this line in both starts where he was allowed to go deep into the game (8 and 11 Ks), Tolle is a strong candidate to clear 5.5 strikeouts today with the benefit of extra rest following Saturday's rainout.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts+112

· 11.7 K/9 rate this season
· 23 strikeouts in 17.2 innings (or 24 in 19.2)
· Recorded 8 and 11 Ks in his two 6+ inning starts this season

MLB · Rays @ Red Sox

Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras is in an ideal position to exploit the statistical regression due for Rays starter Nick Martinez. Martinez has overperformed his peripherals significantly, carrying a 1.71 ERA that is contradicted by a 3.90 xERA and a .313 xwOBA.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+105

· Nick Martinez: 1.71 ERA vs. 3.90 xERA (highest regression gap in rotation)
· Contreras .314 AVG over last 10 games with 2 HRs
· Wind blowing 6 mph OUT to Center Field at Fenway Park

MLB · Twins @ Guardians

Gavin Williams

Gavin Williams has been a strikeout machine this season, recording 60 punchouts in 49.1 innings (10.95 K/9). In his last five starts, he has surpassed this 6.5 line three times, with outings of 11, 9, and 7 strikeouts.

OVER 6.5 Strikeouts-106

· 10.95 season K/9 (60 K in 49.1 IP)
· 35 strikeouts over last 5 starts (31.2 IP)
· 0.89 home ERA at Progressive Field this season

MLB · Twins @ Guardians

Chase DeLauter

Chase DeLauter is currently the Guardians' most productive offensive weapon, leading the team in both average (.295) and home runs (6). He enters this matchup on a massive heater, having blasted 5 home runs with 9 RBIs over his last 10 games.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-112

· 5 HR and 9 RBI in last 10 games
· .295 season batting average (team lead)
· Facing rookie Andrew Morris (4.96 ERA, 1.53 WHIP)

MLB · Yankees @ Brewers

Logan Henderson

Logan Henderson's surface-level stats (4.50 ERA) mask what has been a dominant start to his young career. His underlying metrics are elite, featuring a 1.45 xERA and a .191 xwOBA, which indicates that hitters are struggling both to make contact and to drive the ball.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts-150

· 11 strikeouts in 9.0 innings this season (11.0 K/9)
· 8 strikeouts in 6.0 innings in last full start
· 1.45 xERA and .191 xwOBA suggest elite dominance over contact

MLB · Yankees @ Brewers

Aaron Judge

While the Yankees' offense has been stagnant in Milwaukee, Aaron Judge remains their most consistent power threat and is well-positioned to break out today. Judge has three home runs in his last ten games and maintains a dominant 1.007 OPS against right-handed pitchers.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+120

· 3 home runs in last 10 games
· 1.007 OPS against right-handed pitching this season
· 14 mph wind blowing out toward left field (favors RH power)

MLB · Mariners @ White Sox

Davis Martin

Davis Martin enters this contest as one of the most effective strikeout pitchers in the American League early this season, averaging nearly a strikeout per inning (43 K in 44 IP). His recent form is even more impressive, as he has racked up 31 strikeouts over his last five starts, including a 10-K gem in his last outing. He faces a Seattle Mariners lineup that is highly susceptible to the strikeout; primary power threats Cal Raleigh and Luke Raley have combined for 26 strikeouts in their last 10 games alone. Given Martin's elite 0.77 home ERA and his ability to pitch deep into games (averaging 6.1 innings over his last five), he should have ample opportunities to clear this relatively low 4.5 line against a swing-and-miss heavy Seattle order.

OVER 4.5 Strikeouts-127

· Davis Martin: 31 K in last 5 starts (8.6 K/9)
· Mariners core (Raleigh, Raley, Rodriguez) combined for 37 K in their last 10 games
· Davis Martin recorded 10 strikeouts in his most recent home start

MLB · Mariners @ White Sox

Munetaka Murakami

Despite his status as a premier power hitter, Munetaka Murakami is currently enduring a significant slump, hitting just .100 over his last 10 games. In that span, he has failed to record multiple total bases in 90% of his appearances, with his only 'Over' coming on a single home run. Today he faces Logan Gilbert, a veteran right-hander with a 1.80 career ERA against the White Sox who excels at limiting extra-base hits. The environmental factors at Rate Field further support the under; with temperatures in the 50s and a double-digit wind blowing directly in from left field, fly balls from the left-handed Murakami are far more likely to die in the outfield than clear the fence or reach the gaps.

UNDER 1.5 Total Bases-170

· Munetaka Murakami: .100 AVG (3-for-30) over his last 10 games
· Under 1.5 total bases in 9 of his last 10 games
· Weather: 57°F with 11 mph wind blowing in from LF (suppresses left-handed power)

MLB · Cubs @ Rangers

Jacob deGrom

Jacob deGrom remains one of the premier strikeout artists in the game, and his 11.23 K/9 this season suggests he is fully healthy and dominant. He has cleared this 6.5 line in three of his last five starts, including a 10-K performance.

OVER 6.5 Strikeouts-106

· Jacob deGrom: 11.23 K/9 in 2026 (47 K in 37.2 IP)
· Ian Happ: 18 strikeouts in last 10 games
· Dansby Swanson: 15 strikeouts in last 10 games

MLB · Cubs @ Rangers

Josh Jung

Josh Jung is the hottest hitter in the Rangers lineup and enters this rubber match following back-to-back 3-hit games against Chicago. His .412 average over the last 10 games is supported by significant power production, as he has recorded 4 home runs and 8 RBIs in his last five contests.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-114

· Josh Jung: .412 AVG in last 10 games (14-for-34)
· Jameson Taillon: 6.01 FIP vs 4.24 ERA (negative regression candidate)
· Jung Season Form: 4 HR and 8 RBI over last 5 games

MLB · Pirates @ Giants

Ryan O'Hearn

Ryan O'Hearn is the most consistent presence in the middle of a surging Pirates lineup. Batting in the cleanup spot, he has recorded a hit in 7 of his last 10 games and matches up exceptionally well against the right-handed Tyler Mahle.

OVER 0.5 Hits-135

· Hitting .306 with 11 hits and 11 RBIs over his last 10 games.
· Batting .302 with a .877 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season.
· Part of a Pirates lineup that recorded a season-high 20 hits in yesterday's game.

MLB · Pirates @ Giants

Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez remains the premier contact hitter in the league and is currently in peak form, hitting .361 over his last 10 games. He faces Bubba Chandler, a young right-hander who has struggled significantly with command, as evidenced by his 1.50 WHIP and a 6-walk performance in his last start.

OVER 1.5 Hits+200

· Hitting .361 over his last 10 games with six multi-hit performances during that span.
· Has only struck out once in his last 10 games (36 at-bats).
· Facing Bubba Chandler who allowed 6 walks and has a 1.50 WHIP through 34 innings.

MLB · Braves @ Dodgers

Matt_Olson

Matt Olson is currently the most productive hitter in the Braves' lineup, hitting .324 over his last 10 games and coming off a multi-home run performance. He faces rookie lefty Justin Wrobleski, whose pristine 1.25 ERA is contradicted by a 4.23 xERA and a dangerously low strikeout rate (only 15 K in 36.0 IP).

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+160

· Matt Olson: .324 AVG, 4 HR in last 10 games
· Justin Wrobleski: 4.23 xERA and 3.75 K/9 rate
· Weather: 79°F with wind blowing out to CF

MLB · Braves @ Dodgers

Shohei_Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani enters this rubber match as the centerpiece of the Dodgers' offense, having recorded a hit in 7 of his last 10 games while hitting .282 with 4 home runs in that span. He holds the platoon advantage against Braves right-hander Bryce Elder, whose sinker/slider profile is susceptible to left-handed power.

OVER 0.5 Total Bases+265

· Shohei Ohtani: 11 hits and 4 HR in last 10 games
· Platoon advantage vs RHP Bryce Elder
· Batting 1st: Guaranteed 4-5 plate appearances

MLB · Mets @ Diamondbacks

Juan Soto

Juan Soto remains the most disciplined hitter in baseball and is currently in peak form, hitting .355 over his last 10 games. While he is hitting for average, his primary edge today lies in the matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez, who has struggled significantly with his command lately.

OVER 0.5 Walks-129

· Juan Soto: .355 AVG over last 10 games (11-for-31)
· Eduardo Rodriguez: 5.2 BB/9 over last 5 starts (16 BB in 27.2 IP)
· Soto has recorded at least one walk in 6 of his last 10 games.

MLB · Mets @ Diamondbacks

Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte is the Diamondbacks' most dangerous offensive threat and is perfectly positioned to exploit the Mets' pitching strategy today. The Mets are using Huascar Brazoban as an opener, but the bulk of the innings will be handled by left-hander David Peterson, who has been shelled for an 8.44 ERA in his recent outings.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+102

· David Peterson (bulk reliever): 8.44 ERA over last 5 starts, 31 hits allowed in 22.4 IP
· Ketel Marte: 3 HR and 7 RBI over his last 10 games
· Marte has cleared 1.5 total bases in 4 of his last 10 games, including an 8-TB performance.

MLB · Cardinals @ Padres

Ty France

Ty France has been the most dominant power threat in this series, recording a home run in each of the last two games and going 5-for-8 overall. He faces Kyle Leahy, a pitcher whose surface-level stats mask significant underlying struggles.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+146

· 5-for-8 with 2 HR in current series
· Pitcher Kyle Leahy: 5.96 xERA and 6 HR allowed in 20 road IP
· Opposing pitcher 1.64 WHIP and .389 opponent wOBA

MLB · Cardinals @ Padres

Ivan Herrera

Ivan Herrera is currently on the most productive stretch of his season, recording six hits and an RBI double over the first two games of this road series. By batting in the #2 hole, Herrera is guaranteed high volume (likely 4-5 plate appearances) and benefits from batting immediately in front of Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker, which significantly boosts his chances of scoring runs. While Walker Buehler has been better at home, his 1.52 WHIP this season shows he is consistently under pressure from baserunners. Given Herrera's current multi-hit trend and his ability to drive in runs or score them via the heart of the order, he has multiple paths to clearing this combined threshold.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-116

· 6 hits over the last two games (4 on Friday, 2 on Saturday)
· Batting 2nd in the lineup, maximizing plate appearances
· Pitcher Walker Buehler: 1.52 WHIP and 5.64 ERA this season

MLB · Tigers @ Royals

Jahmai Jones

Jahmai Jones has emerged as the primary offensive spark for a struggling Tigers team, slashing .333 over his last 10 games with a hit in 7 of those contests. By batting third in the lineup, Jones is guaranteed maximum plate appearances (likely 4-5) against a Royals starter, Noah Cameron, who has been highly vulnerable this season. Cameron's 1.61 WHIP and 6.32 xERA indicate he allows significant traffic, and his inability to miss bats (opponents' .386 xwOBA) creates a high-floor opportunity for Jones. At a line of just 0.5, Jones only needs a single to clear this prop, a mark he has reached consistently during Detroit's current road trip.

OVER 0.5 Total Bases-129

· .333 AVG over last 10 games (7-for-21)
· Batting #3 in the Tigers lineup
· Facing Noah Cameron (1.61 WHIP, 6.32 xERA)

MLB · Tigers @ Royals

Noah Cameron

Despite an inflated ERA, Noah Cameron remains a consistent strikeout producer, averaging nearly a strikeout per inning (28 K in 31.2 IP). He faces a Detroit Tigers lineup that is currently mired in a five-game losing streak and has struggled significantly with contact, managing only four hits in their previous game. The Tigers' middle-of-the-order features several high-strikeout candidates, including Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, who have both seen multiple multi-K games in their last 10. Cameron has cleared the 4.5 mark in 67% of his starts this year and should find success against a thinned-out Detroit roster missing key veterans due to injury.

OVER 4.5 Strikeouts-136

· 4.5 Strikeout line vs 7.96 K/9 season average
· Cleared 4.5 K in 4 of 6 starts this season
· Tigers struck out 13 times in the series opener on Friday

Graded results

Games

W
Marlins ML -134
MLB · 2-5
L
Athletics ML -108
MLB · 1-2
L
Red Sox ML -144
MLB · 4-1
W
Angels ML -110
MLB · 6-1
W
Cincinnati Reds ML -112
MLB · 0-5
L
Yankees ML -102
MLB · 3-4
W
Rangers ML -122
MLB · 0-3
W
Pittsburgh Pirates ML +108
MLB · 13-3
W
Braves ML +116
MLB · 7-2
W
Arizona Diamondbacks ML -116
MLB · 1-5
W
Padres ML -132
MLB · 2-3
L
Royals ML -122
MLB · 6-3

Props

W
Aaron Judge · over
Yankees @ Brewers · Actual 4
W
Bryce Harper · over
Rockies @ Phillies · Actual 4
L
Cade Cavalli · under
Nationals @ Marlins · Actual 16
W
Chase DeLauter · over
Twins @ Guardians · Actual 4
L
Davis Martin · over
Mariners @ White Sox · Actual 0
L
Gavin Williams · over
Twins @ Guardians · Actual 6
L
Ivan Herrera · over
Cardinals @ Padres · Actual 0
W
Jacob deGrom · over
Cubs @ Rangers · Actual 10
W
Jahmai Jones · over
Tigers @ Royals · Actual 1
W
Josh Jung · over
Cubs @ Rangers · Actual 5
L
Juan Soto · over
Mets @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
W
Ketel Marte · over
Mets @ Diamondbacks · Actual 3
W
Kyle Schwarber · over
Rockies @ Phillies · Actual 7
L
Logan Henderson · over
Yankees @ Brewers · Actual 1
L
Luis Arraez · over
Pirates @ Giants · Actual 1
W
Matt_Olson · over
Braves @ Dodgers · Actual 4
W
Munetaka Murakami · under
Mariners @ White Sox · Actual 1
L
Noah Cameron · over
Tigers @ Royals · Actual 4
L
Payton Tolle · over
Rays @ Red Sox · Actual 4
W
Pete Alonso · under
Athletics @ Orioles · Actual 0
W
Ryan O'Hearn · over
Pirates @ Giants · Actual 2
L
Shea Langeliers · over
Athletics @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Shohei_Ohtani · over
Braves @ Dodgers · Actual 0
L
Ty France · over
Cardinals @ Padres · Actual 0
L
Willson Contreras · over
Rays @ Red Sox · Actual 0
W
Xavier Edwards · over
Nationals @ Marlins · Actual 2