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2026-04-13

The stored Gary board for Mon, Apr 13. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

7
MLB6:35 PM

Diamondbacks @ Orioles

The Arizona Diamondbacks roll into Camden Yards riding a season-high five-game winning streak, looking to capitalize on a Baltimore roster that has been decimated by injuries to its core stars over the last 48 hours. With Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle both sidelined, the Orioles (8-7) are asking their next generation to step up against a Diamondbacks squad (9-7) that just completed a statement sweep of the Phillies. Despite Arizona’s momentum, the math behind this pitching matchup heavily favors the Orioles. Ryne Nelson’s 4.20 ERA is one of the most deceptive marks in the league right now; his 5.60 xERA and .370 xwOBA indicate he has been dodging bullets for three starts, and Camden Yards is the wrong place to be a fly-ball pitcher when the regression hits. With the wind blowing 9 mph out to right field and temperatures near 80 degrees, Nelson is walking into a trap. Gunnar Henderson already has a home run against him in limited looks and is currently tied for second in the majors with six long balls. Even without Rutschman’s protection, Henderson and Pete Alonso provide enough high-leverage power to exploit Nelson’s underlying volatility. On the other side, Dean Kremer is a different pitcher when he sees the B&O Warehouse. His 2.87 Home ERA is a massive upgrade over his road splits, and he returns from a dominant Triple-A tune-up looking to stabilize a rotation missing Zach Eflin. While Arizona’s Ildemaro Vargas and Corbin Carroll are hitting the cover off the ball, the Diamondbacks' bullpen is the silent vulnerability tonight. After grinding through a high-intensity sweep in Philadelphia, Arizona's primary setup men are taxed, whereas Baltimore’s relief corps is fresh. Between the pitcher regression metrics and the situational bullpen fatigue for Arizona, the Orioles are the play to snap the Diamondbacks' streak.

Orioles ML-130
CONF
68%
MLB6:40 PM

Cubs @ Phillies

Monday night baseball returns to the Bank as the Phillies look to snap out of an early-April offensive funk against a Cubs squad riding high off a dramatic weekend comeback. While both teams enter this series with identical 7-8 records, the underlying pitching matchup and situational factors create a heavy tilt toward the home side. The primary edge lies with Cristopher Sánchez, who has been nothing short of a workhorse at Citizens Bank Park. Sánchez is averaging over eight innings per start and maintaining an elite 12.9 K/9 rate, largely on the strength of a changeup that has generated a 61.9% strikeout rate. This is a nightmare draw for a Cubs lineup that has fallen into a deep slumber against left-handed pitching, hitting a combined .125 against southpaws over their last five games. While Javier Assad brings a pristine 0.00 ERA to the mound for Chicago, his 1.65 xERA and low strikeout rate suggest he has been the beneficiary of elite defense rather than dominant stuff. That luck is likely to run out tonight in Philadelphia. The weather conditions—80-degree temperatures with a 14 mph wind blowing straight out to right field—turn this venue into a launch pad for left-handed power hitters. This is the ideal environment for Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber to break out. Harper, in particular, has seen Assad well in the past and enters this game on a heater, batting .500 over his last five games. Assad historically struggles in this building, and without high-end swing-and-miss stuff, he is vulnerable to the fly-ball nature of the Phillies’ power bats in these conditions. Finally, the bullpen disparity cannot be ignored. The Cubs arrive with a taxed relief corps and are missing key high-leverage arms like Hunter Harvey and Phil Maton due to recent injuries. Conversely, Philadelphia closer Jhoan Duran and the rest of the Phillies' primary late-inning options are fully rested after a day off. With Sánchez likely to provide significant length and the Phillies' offense due for a breakout in a hitter-friendly environment, the -184 price on Philadelphia is a fair reflection of their significant tactical advantages tonight.

Phillies ML-184
CONF
78%
MLB6:40 PM

Nationals @ Pirates

The lights at PNC Park are set to shine on a clash between two of the game's brightest young arms as the Pirates host the surging Nationals in a series opener defined by massive pitching variance. While the Nationals arrive with momentum from a sweep, the statistical reality on the mound suggests a significant correction is coming for both starting pitchers that heavily favors Pittsburgh. Paul Skenes is the ultimate positive regression candidate tonight. Despite a 5.25 ERA that looks pedestrian on paper, his 2.57 xERA is elite, signaling that he has been far more dominant than the box scores indicate. He is coming off a stabilized performance where he surrendered just one run over six innings, and he faces a Washington lineup where the engine, James Wood, is currently mired in a deep slump, hitting just .114 with 18 strikeouts over his last ten games. Skenes has the high-velocity stuff to exploit that lack of contact, especially with a Pirates defense behind him that has been far more disciplined than the error-prone Nationals unit. On the other side, Cade Cavalli is living on borrowed time. His 2.51 ERA is a mirage when compared to his 4.22 xERA and a bloated walk rate of 5.6 BB/9. He has failed to complete five innings in two of his three starts this year because he cannot find the strike zone, and walking hitters is a death sentence against Oneil Cruz, who is currently riding an eleven-game hitting streak. With a 14 mph wind blowing out to left field, Cavalli’s command issues will be magnified. Furthermore, Washington is facing a fresh pitching crisis after losing Ken Waldichuk and Cole Henry to the injured list today. This thins an already struggling bullpen that owns a 5.51 ERA. Between Pittsburgh’s superior relief depth and Skenes' underlying dominance, the Pirates are positioned to break this game open late.

Pirates -1.5-102
CONF
82%
MLB7:05 PM

Angels @ Yankees

The lights are bright at Yankee Stadium tonight as the New York Yankees try to snap a dismal five-game skid against a Los Angeles Angels team that has historically made themselves at home in the Bronx. While the market has the Yankees as heavy home favorites, the data reveals a massive discrepancy between surface-level performance and the underlying reality of this pitching matchup. Yusei Kikuchi enters this start as the ultimate candidate for positive regression. His 6.75 ERA is an eyesore, but his xERA sits at 3.80, indicating he has been significantly more effective than his results suggest. Crucially, Kikuchi has a proven track record of dominance in this specific environment, carrying a career 3.27 ERA at Yankee Stadium. On the mound for New York, rookie Will Warren is currently overperforming his peripherals. While he was impressive in his last outing, a young pitcher facing an Angels lineup that leads the matchup in home runs is a high-risk scenario, especially with slugger Jorge Soler remaining active while appealing his suspension. The Yankees' decision-making reflects a team searching for answers, specifically the choice to bench their hottest hitter, Ben Rice, in favor of veteran platoon splits. While the 14 mph wind blowing out to left field is a boost for the Yankees' right-handed power, it is a dual-edged sword that provides an equal advantage to right-handed Angels threats like Mike Trout and Zach Neto. The decisive edge lies in the late innings; the Angels possess a perfect Jordan Romano (0.00 ERA) to close the door, while the Yankees’ bullpen is in a state of crisis with closer David Bednar struggling under a 2.25 WHIP. Given that the Angels have won five of their last seven games in the Bronx, taking the value on the underdog against a reeling Yankees squad is the sharp play.

Angels ML+158
CONF
72%
MLB7:15 PM

Marlins @ Braves

It’s a clear, 80-degree evening at Truist Park as the Braves and Marlins kick off their first divisional clash of the 2026 season. Atlanta enters this one as the hottest team in baseball, carrying a league-best plus-46 run differential and a lineup that just dismantled Cleveland for 19 hits. While Eury Pérez possesses some of the most electric raw stuff in the game, his history against this specific franchise is a house of horrors. Pérez carries a career 12.19 ERA against the Braves into tonight’s start, and he faces a lineup featuring Drake Baldwin, who has already taken him deep twice in just four career at-bats against him. The situational contrast here is jarring. Miami arrives in Atlanta after a demoralizing sweep in Detroit where their offense managed only three runs across the entire series. With power threats like Christopher Morel and Esteury Ruiz sidelined, the Marlins are relying on a contact-heavy approach that hasn't traveled well, evidenced by their 1–5 road record. On the other side, Grant Holmes has provided surprising stability for the Braves’ rotation. While his 3.20 xERA suggests some regression might be coming compared to his 2.55 actual ERA, he is backed by a defense that ranks 3rd in MLB for Outs Above Average and leads the league in double plays turned. In warm, hitter-friendly conditions, that defensive safety net is a massive advantage. Furthermore, the "small ball" battle heavily favors Atlanta. The Marlins’ catching duo of Liam Hicks and Agustín Ramírez has yet to throw out a single base stealer this season, which is a dangerous liability against a Braves team that effectively utilizes speed. With Michael Harris II returning to the lineup today and the Braves yet to lose a series this season, the momentum is entirely on the home side. I’m not overthinking the "Stuff+" metrics for Pérez when his command (5.1 BB/9) and his history in this building are so volatile. Atlanta is the more complete team, and at -148, I’m backing the squad that is currently outclassing the rest of the division.

Braves ML-148
CONF
78%
MLB7:40 PM

Red Sox @ Twins

The lights come up at Target Field as the first-place Minnesota Twins look to protect their turf against a Boston Red Sox squad coming in with a heavy-hitting reputation and their newly minted ace on the mound. While the market has installed Boston as a significant road favorite based on the surface-level pitching numbers, there is a massive amount of value hidden in the underlying data for this series opener. The disparity between Garrett Crochet and Bailey Ober is not as wide as the current ERAs suggest. While Crochet has been elite with an 11.4 K/9, his 3.12 ERA is actually outperforming his 3.67 xERA. Conversely, Bailey Ober is a prime candidate for positive regression; his 5.27 ERA is ballooned by early-season variance, but his 4.16 xERA indicates he has pitched much better than the box scores show. Tonight’s conditions at Target Field play directly into Ober’s hands—with 69-degree temperatures and an 8-mph wind blowing straight in from center field, the environment is perfectly suited to suppress the long ball and help a fly-ball-oriented pitcher like Ober settle into a rhythm. Minnesota is also bringing a tactical edge with a lineup specifically built to neutralize left-handed power. With six right-handed hitters and three switch-hitters in the starting nine, they are forcing Crochet to work without the benefit of platoon advantages. Austin Martin has been lethal against southpaws this season with an .884 OPS, and the return of Byron Buxton to the top of the order provides the speed and power necessary to stress a Boston defense that has already committed 13 errors in just 15 games. The Red Sox may have the 'hot' bats in Willson Contreras and Wilyer Abreu, but the Twins are the more disciplined team at home (5-2) and are currently riding the momentum of winning six of their last seven. Taking the home underdog at +144 against a team with a 3-6 road record is the sharp move tonight.

Twins ML+144
CONF
65%
MLB7:45 PM

Guardians @ Cardinals

It is a rare, sweltering April night in St. Louis with temperatures hitting 83 degrees and a 15 mph wind howling straight out to left field at Busch Stadium. While the market sees this as a near-even coin flip, the underlying metrics suggest we are looking at two pitchers trending in opposite directions despite what their surface ERAs might tell you. Gavin Williams is currently a high-wire act, but he possesses the elite strikeout stuff (12.7 K/9) necessary to survive his own command issues. While his 21% walk rate is objectively high, he has neutralized hitters to the tune of a .094 opponent batting average. In a park where the wind is pushing every fly ball toward the seats, the best defense is simply not allowing the ball to be put in play. Conversely, Matthew Liberatore is a regression candidate of the highest order. He carries a massive 5.50 xERA and a 1.50 WHIP, surviving on luck and a league-leading defense that can’t help him if the ball is landing in the bleachers. Given Liberatore’s history of giving up home runs (2.25 HR/9 this season), these weather conditions are a nightmare for him against a Cleveland lineup featuring Jose Ramirez and Rhys Hoskins. The game shifts even further toward Cleveland in the later innings. The Guardians possess a top-five bullpen that gets a massive boost today with the activation of high-leverage arm Hunter Gaddis. Pairing Gaddis with Emmanuel Clase gives Cleveland a late-game infrastructure that St. Louis, currently ranked 23rd in bullpen ERA, simply cannot match. Even with Jordan Walker swinging a hot bat for the Cardinals, the combination of Williams’ miss-rate and Cleveland’s superior relief depth makes the Guardians the clear side. I’ll lay the small price on the better pitching staff in a volatile environment.

Guardians ML-118
CONF
68%

Player props

15
MLB · Diamondbacks @ Orioles

Gunnar Henderson

Gunnar Henderson is in elite form and enters this matchup with 5 home runs in his last 10 games and a 6-game hitting streak. He faces Ryne Nelson, whose 4.20 ERA is heavily deceptive; Nelson's expected metrics (5.60 xERA, .370 xwOBA) suggest he is consistently giving up hard contact that hasn't fully translated to runs allowed yet. Henderson, a left-handed power hitter, is perfectly positioned to exploit this regression candidate, especially with a 9 mph wind blowing directly out to right field at Camden Yards. As the leadoff hitter, Henderson will see maximum plate appearances against a pitcher struggling to miss barrels. The warm 79-degree weather further aids ball flight for a hitter with Henderson's exit velocity profile.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-145
  • · 5 HR in last 10 games
  • · 6-game hitting streak
  • · Opposing starter Ryne Nelson: 5.60 xERA and .370 xwOBA
MLB · Diamondbacks @ Orioles

Corbin Carroll

Corbin Carroll has been the primary engine for the Diamondbacks' offense recently, slashing .353 with a 1.067 OPS over his last 10 games. He has recorded 12 hits in his last 34 at-bats and has shown a high floor with multi-hit performances in three of his last five games. He draws a favorable matchup against Dean Kremer, who is being recalled from Triple-A Norfolk to fill a rotation vacancy. Carroll’s elite speed and contact-oriented approach make him a threat to record multiple hits or score easily if he reaches base. Batting second in a lineup that has been producing 4.0 runs per game ensures high-volume opportunities in a hitter-friendly environment (warm temps, wind blowing out).

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-143
  • · .353 AVG and 1.067 OPS in last 10 games
  • · 12 hits in last 34 at-bats
  • · Multi-hit games in 3 of last 5 starts
MLB · Cubs @ Phillies

Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper is in elite form entering this series, hitting .500 over his last five games and carrying a .371 average over his last 10. Tonight's environment at Citizens Bank Park is perfectly tailored for a left-handed power hitter, with 80-degree temperatures and a 14-mph wind blowing directly out to right field.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-144
  • · Bryce Harper .500 AVG (8-for-16) over last 5 games
  • · Bryce Harper 3-for-6 career vs Javier Assad
  • · 14 mph wind blowing out to Right Field at Citizens Bank Park
MLB · Cubs @ Phillies

Nico Hoerner

Nico Hoerner is the engine of the Cubs' offense and enters this game as their most consistent producer with a .316 season average. Facing the left-handed Cristopher Sanchez, Hoerner benefits from the platoon advantage and his high-contact approach (only 1 K in his last four games).

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-150
  • · Nico Hoerner leads Cubs with .316 batting average and 10 RBIs
  • · Cristopher Sanchez allowed 11 hits in 5.0 IP in his most recent start
  • · Hoerner bats leadoff, ensuring maximum plate appearance volume (4-5 PA)
MLB · Nationals @ Pirates

James Wood

James Wood is currently mired in a significant contact slump, striking out 19 times in his last 44 at-bats—a 43.1% K-rate over his last 10 games. While he possesses elite power, his timing is clearly off, as evidenced by his .114 batting average during this stretch.

OVER 1.5 Strikeouts-135
  • · 19 strikeouts in last 10 games (44 at-bats)
  • · 70% frequency of 2+ strikeouts in last 10 games
  • · Opposing SP Paul Skenes 2.57 xERA vs 5.25 actual ERA
MLB · Nationals @ Pirates

Oneil Cruz

Oneil Cruz is the hottest hitter in the Pirates' lineup, entering this series on an 11-game hitting streak with a .366 average over his last 10 games. As the leadoff hitter, he will see maximum plate appearances against Cade Cavalli, who is a major regression candidate.

OVER 0.5 Runs Scored-115
  • · 11-game hitting streak
  • · 1.044 season OPS (8th in MLB)
  • · Nationals SP Cade Cavalli 1.47 WHIP and 4.22 xERA
MLB · Nationals @ Pirates

Oneil Cruz

I am doubling down on Oneil Cruz as the Gary Special because his Total Bases and Runs Scored props are fundamentally linked for a leadoff hitter with his power profile. Cruz’s 1.044 OPS and current 11-game hitting streak show he is barreling the ball with elite consistency.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+105
  • · 3 home runs in last 10 games
  • · 15 hits in last 41 at-bats (.366 AVG)
  • · 14 mph wind blowing out to LF power alley
MLB · Angels @ Yankees

Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge is in a prime bounce-back position tonight facing the struggling southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi has been a disaster through three starts, posting a 1.77 WHIP and allowing significant hard contact (.372 wOBA).

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-115
  • · Yusei Kikuchi: 6.75 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, .372 opponent wOBA in 2026
  • · Weather: 75°F, 14 mph wind blowing out to Left Field (LF)
  • · Aaron Judge: Batting 2nd vs. LHP in confirmed lineup
MLB · Angels @ Yankees

Will Warren

Will Warren has been a strikeout machine for the Yankees, maintaining a 9.6 K/9 rate through his first three outings. He faces an Angels lineup that is currently in a historic swing-and-miss funk.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts-120
  • · Will Warren: 24 K in 22.5 IP (9.6 K/9) this season
  • · Jo Adell: 17 K in last 10 games (.486 K rate)
  • · Jorge Soler: 16 K in last 10 games (.470 K rate)
MLB · Marlins @ Braves

Matt Olson

The primary driver for this pick is the overwhelming historical success the Braves have had against Eury Perez, who carries a career 12.19 ERA against Atlanta and a 5.06 ERA so far in 2026. Matt Olson has fully emerged from an early-season slump, slashing .324 with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs over his last 10 games, including a multi-HR game in his recent form. Batting third in a lineup that leads MLB in runs and is coming off a 19-hit explosion on Sunday, Olson is perfectly positioned to capitalize on a pitcher he has historically dominated. The warm 79-degree weather at Truist Park further favors Olson's left-handed power profile in this matchup.

OVER 0.5 RBI+165
  • · Eury Perez: 12.19 career ERA vs Braves
  • · Matt Olson: .324 AVG and 4 HR in last 10 games
  • · Braves: 13 runs and 19 hits in Sunday's game
MLB · Marlins @ Braves

Xavier Edwards

Xavier Edwards is the most consistent producer in the Marlins lineup, hitting .405 over his last 10 games with an elite contact rate (only 4 strikeouts in his last 37 at-bats). While the Marlins' offense as a whole has struggled, Edwards has recorded multiple hits in 60% of his last 10 games, giving him a very high floor for the 'hits' portion of this prop. He faces Grant Holmes, whose 2.55 ERA is significantly lower than his 3.20 xERA, suggesting he is due for regression against high-contact hitters. Batting second ensures Edwards 4-5 plate appearances, and his speed makes him a constant threat to score a run even if the Marlins only manage a few hits behind him.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-129
  • · Xavier Edwards: .405 AVG in last 10 games
  • · Xavier Edwards: 6 multi-hit games in last 10 outings
  • · Grant Holmes: 2.55 ERA vs 3.20 xERA (regression candidate)
MLB · Red Sox @ Twins

Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras enters this matchup as the hottest hitter in the Red Sox lineup, fresh off a dominant weekend where he went 6-for-9. He faces Bailey Ober, who has been a shadow of his former self in 2026, posting a 5.27 ERA and an xFIP over 5.00.

OVER 0.5 Hits-180
  • · Willson Contreras hitting .314 in last 10 games
  • · 6-for-9 with 6 RBIs in previous weekend series
  • · Bailey Ober 5.27 ERA and only 7 strikeouts in 13.2 IP in 2026
MLB · Red Sox @ Twins

Byron Buxton

This is a classic 'fade the slump' play against an elite pitcher. Byron Buxton is mired in a significant 0-for-14 drought and is hitting just .154 over his last 10 games. Tonight he faces Garrett Crochet, who has arguably been the most dominant pitcher in the American League early this season, recording at least seven strikeouts in every 2026 start.

UNDER 0.5 Hits+148
  • · Byron Buxton is 0-for-his-last-14 over 4 games
  • · Garrett Crochet averages 11.42 K/9 and 7+ Ks per start in 2026
  • · Wind blowing in from CF at 8 mph at Target Field
MLB · Guardians @ Cardinals

Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker is the definition of a 'hot hand' in the early 2026 season, entering tonight with a .327 average and 7 home runs through his first 15 games. While Guardians starter Gavin Williams has posted a strong 2.04 ERA, his underlying metrics (3.59 xERA) and recent form (one home run allowed in each of his last three starts) suggest he is vulnerable to the long ball.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+134
  • · Jordan Walker: 7 HR in 15 games (franchise record)
  • · Gavin Williams: 4 HR allowed in last 5 starts
  • · Weather: 83F, 15 mph wind blowing Out to LF
MLB · Guardians @ Cardinals

Jose Ramirez

Jose Ramirez matches up perfectly against Matthew Liberatore, whose early-season success appears to be a statistical mirage. Liberatore’s 3.38 ERA is heavily contradicted by a massive 5.50 xERA and an opponent xwOBA of .374, indicating that hitters are making high-quality contact that hasn't yet translated into runs.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+110
  • · Matthew Liberatore: 5.50 xERA vs 3.38 actual ERA
  • · Matthew Liberatore: 9 hits allowed in last start
  • · Jose Ramirez: High-contact switch-hitter batting Righty vs LHP

Graded results

22

Games

  • W

    Orioles ML -130

    MLB · 7-9

  • W

    Phillies ML -184

    MLB · 7-13

  • W

    Pirates -1.5 -102

    MLB · 5-16

  • L

    Angels ML +158

    MLB · 10-11

  • L

    Braves ML -148

    MLB · 10-4

  • W

    Twins ML +144

    MLB · 6-13

  • W

    Guardians ML -118

    MLB · 9-3

Props

  • W

    Aaron Judge · over

    Angels @ Yankees · Actual 8

  • W

    Bryce Harper · over

    Cubs @ Phillies · Actual 3

  • L

    Byron Buxton · under

    Red Sox @ Twins · Actual 2

  • L

    Corbin Carroll · over

    Diamondbacks @ Orioles · Actual 1

  • W

    Gunnar Henderson · over

    Diamondbacks @ Orioles · Actual 2

  • W

    James Wood · over

    Nationals @ Pirates · Actual 2

  • L

    Jordan Walker · over

    Guardians @ Cardinals · Actual 0

  • W

    Jose Ramirez · over

    Guardians @ Cardinals · Actual 6

  • L

    Matt Olson · over

    Marlins @ Braves · Actual 0

  • L

    Nico Hoerner · over

    Cubs @ Phillies · Actual 0

  • W

    Oneil Cruz · over

    Nationals @ Pirates · Actual 2

  • W

    Oneil Cruz · over

    Nationals @ Pirates · Actual 3

  • W

    Willson Contreras · over

    Red Sox @ Twins · Actual 1

  • W

    Will Warren · over

    Angels @ Yankees · Actual 6

  • W

    Xavier Edwards · over

    Marlins @ Braves · Actual 5