Sports picks for Wednesday, January 21, 2026

: Jarrett Allen is facing a Charlotte frontcourt that is historically thin tonight with Mason Plumlee sidelined. The Hornets are forced to rely on rookie Ryan Kalkbrenner and smaller wings like Grant Williams, neither of whom possess the veteran physicality required to keep Allen off the glass or stop him in the pick-and-roll. With Darius Garland out, Cleveland will likely prioritize high-percentage interior looks to stabilize their offense, funneling more opportunities to Allen. His elite 70.6% True Shooting percentage suggests that even on modest volume, he can clear this 13.5 line easily. I expect Mitchell to hunt Allen for lobs early and often, exploiting Charlotte's lack of a primary rim protector.

: With Tyrese Haliburton officially out for the season, the Pacers' offense is forced to run almost exclusively through Siakam. He has cleared this 22.5 line in four of his last five games, averaging 24.5 points in that span. Boston's defensive scheme traditionally employs a 'drop' coverage that concedes the exact 10-15 foot jumpers where Siakam is most efficient. The high pace of the Indiana transition game ensures a high volume of possessions, giving Siakam a stable floor of 18-22 field goal attempts. While Boston has elite wing defenders, Siakam's ability to draw fouls in the post provides a necessary scoring cushion. In a must-win scenario for Indiana, expect the veteran to carry the heaviest scoring burden of his season.

: SGA is in a massive usage vacuum tonight with Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso out. He already averages 31.8 PPG on a 33% usage rate, and that usage is projected to spike toward 38% as he becomes the sole creator for OKC. Milwaukee is missing Myles Turner, meaning Shai—who leads the league in drives—will face a much softer interior. The Bucks' 28th-ranked defense against PGs suggests they have no one to stay in front of him. On a national TV stage, Shai's volume floor is exceptionally high, and 32 points is a conservative estimate for his output in this specific environment.

: Bobby Portis is the primary beneficiary of Myles Turner being ruled out. He moves from his bench role into the starting unit where he projects for 30-32 minutes. Portis is a high-volume shooter who averaged 14.2 PPG recently in limited minutes; in a starting capacity against an OKC team missing its best interior defenders, his 'bully-ball' post-up game becomes a primary offensive focal point. OKC is currently extremely thin and undersized on the interior with Hartenstein and Jalen Williams sidelined, which plays directly into Portis's strength as a physical interior scorer. The volume alone clears this line.

: The books are hanging this 9.5 line based on Scottie's season average and the fact that Jakob Poeltl is out, but they are ignoring the massive role shift that has occurred over the last two weeks. Barnes has averaged a stunningly low 2.2 rebounds over his last five games and hasn't cleared 8 in any of them. He is playing more on the perimeter as a facilitator and his minutes have been capped in the mid-20s. While he may see a slight bump in opportunities with Poeltl out, asking for a 400% increase over his recent rebounding production is an massive oversight by the market. Sabonis will still be on the floor to dominate the interior, leaving Barnes to compete for crumbs. This is the ultimate 'name-brand' line that doesn't reflect the current on-court reality.

: The mismatch here is structural: Brooklyn ranks last in the league in rebounding, and they lack the secondary size to compete with Towns once Nic Claxton is pulled to the perimeter. Towns is averaging 12.8 rebounds over his last five games, including massive 18 and 20 rebound performances, showing his floor is currently at or above this line against average competition. Against a Nets frontcourt that is historically porous on the glass, KAT's 44% contested rebound rate should allow him to feast on both ends of the floor. Even in a potential blowout scenario where his minutes are slightly reduced to 28-30, the sheer volume of misses from a rebuilding Nets offense provides a high enough floor to clear 12 boards. The only real risk is early foul trouble, but KAT's recent discipline and the importance of this rivalry game for the sliding Knicks should keep him on the floor long enough to hit this.

: Jaylen Brown is in a prime position to exploit Indiana's structural defensive weaknesses. The Pacers rank near the bottom of the league in points allowed in the paint and transition defense, which plays directly into Brown's elite downhill attacking style. With Jayson Tatum sidelined, Brown's usage rate has spiked to over 31%, ensuring he is the focal point of every Celtics possession. He is averaging nearly 30 PPG on the season and has historically feasted on Indiana's high-possession style. While 30.5 is a high line, the mechanism—Brown's physical strength against a Pacers team with no vertical rim protection—is reliable. Even in a potential blowout, Brown's early-game aggression usually allows him to clear his totals before the starters are pulled. Expect a high-volume performance from the All-Star starter.

: The market is lagging behind the reality of Alexander-Walker's role in Atlanta. Since the Trae Young trade, NAW has been unleashed as a primary scoring option, averaging 21.8 PPG in January. He is coming off a massive 32-point performance and is seeing 15-20 field goal attempts per night. Memphis is missing their primary rim protectors (Edey and Clarke), creating a massive opening for NAW's transition game and perimeter shooting. Given his current usage rate and the Hawks' high-pace system, this line of 21.5 is significantly under-priced.

: Rookie Jeremiah Fears is a reluctant and inconsistent outside shooter, averaging only one make per game on low efficiency. Tonight he faces a Detroit defense that specializes in running shooters off the line and forcing contested attempts. The Pistons have the length in Ausar Thompson and Isaiah Stewart to completely swallow up Fears' perimeter looks. At +152, we are getting great value on a rookie struggling to find his range against a top-tier defensive unit. Fears much prefers to use his speed to attack the paint, and against Detroit's disciplined rotations, he likely won't see the wide-open catch-and-shoot opportunities he needs to clear this line.

: Immanuel Quickley is in the middle of a massive breakout, capped by his 40-point performance two nights ago. With RJ Barrett and Poeltl out, the Raptors' offense is essentially the 'Quickley Show.' His usage has skyrocketed to 32%, and he now faces a Sacramento defense that is arguably the worst in the league at containing point-of-attack guards. The Kings allow 120.7 PPG and have no elite perimeter defender to slow Quickley down. In a game with a high 224.5 total, the volume of possessions will be high enough for Quickley to rack up points and assists at will. His current form is elite, and the vacancy in the Raptors' rotation ensures he will have every opportunity to clear this PRA line.

: While the 18.5 line is lower than LaMelo's average, the matchup against Cleveland is a stylistic nightmare. The Cavaliers' defensive scheme, anchored by Mobley and Allen, is designed to funnel drivers into the paint and neutralize them with length. Ball is an inefficient finisher (41.4% FG) who relies on paint pressure to open up his perimeter game. Against Cleveland, that paint pressure will be nonexistent, forcing him into a 'home run' mentality from the three-point line. If his jumper isn't falling early, he often pivots to a playmaker role, as seen in his recent high-assist games. I see a game script where Ball finishes with 12-15 points and 10+ assists as he avoids the 'Twin Towers' inside.

: Coward is in a prime position to smash this line due to the severe injury shortages in the Memphis frontcourt. With Edey and Clarke sidelined, Coward is locked into a starter's workload and high-leverage touches. He has already proven he can score at this level (21 points vs Brooklyn) and faces an Atlanta defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in points allowed and rebounding. The sheer volume of vacated touches ensures Coward will have double-digit field goal attempts in a game with a very high expected total.

: Harris is in a prime position to exceed his scoring average tonight. The Pistons are facing the worst-ranked team in the NBA, and with Cade Cunningham listed as questionable with an illness, the scoring burden will shift heavily toward the veteran Harris. New Orleans is hemorrhaging points, ranking 28th in defensive efficiency, and lacks the wing length to consistently bother Harris in his preferred mid-range spots. I expect Harris to be aggressive early, taking advantage of a Pelicans frontcourt that is currently in flux due to injuries and trade rumors involving Zion Williamson. Even if Cunningham plays, Harris has extra motivation as the trade deadline approaches and he enters the final months of his contract.

: OG Anunoby is the primary beneficiary of the 'gravity' created by Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. Brooklyn's defensive scheme involves heavy help on star ball-handlers, which consistently leaves the weak-side corner open—OG's primary scoring zone. He is averaging 15.8 PPG on the season, and the Nets specifically allow the most points in the league to his position. This isn't about OG creating his own shot; it's about the mechanism of the Knicks' offense forcing the ball into his hands for high-quality, open looks. The risk is his low usage, but against a Nets team that struggles to rotate to the perimeter, OG only needs 10-12 shots to clear this line comfortably. He's been a consistent 15-18 point producer when the Knicks' spacing is optimized, which it will be tonight.