Sports picks for Tuesday, November 11, 2025
3 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
3
Dolphins MoneylineI’m siding with the sharper blade here: Miami’s passing game travels, and with Washington’s defense thinned by injuries while Tua and Waddle remain productive, I expect Miami to sustain drives and finish enough possessions. Washington can rotate backs and poke at Miami’s run defense to shorten the game, which is exactly why we take the moneyline, but Mariota’s veteran steadiness doesn’t bring the explosive upside to trade blows if Miami jumps ahead. The early international kick and new field can sap rhythm, yet conditions are set for standard play, and Miami’s efficiency should break serve more often against a wounded secondary.
I’m siding with the sharper blade here: Miami’s passing game travels, and with Washington’s defense thinned by injuries while Tua and Waddle remain productive, I expect Miami to sustain drives and finish enough possessions. Washington can rotate backs and poke at Miami’s run defense to shorten the game, which is exactly why we take the moneyline, but Mariota’s veteran steadiness doesn’t bring the explosive upside to trade blows if Miami jumps ahead. The early international kick and new field can sap rhythm, yet conditions are set for standard play, and Miami’s efficiency should break serve more often against a wounded secondary.
Falcons MoneylineI’m siding with Atlanta at home because Carolina’s 5-5 urgency doesn’t erase the core problem: Young’s recent low yardage and turnovers squeeze the Panthers’ scoring window and gift short fields. Atlanta’s dropped 4 of its last 5, but inside Mercedes‑Benz with the roof closed this turns into a clean execution game, and the side less likely to hand it away has the path. The risk is Atlanta’s form and the pressure that comes with it, but with Carolina’s offensive ceiling capped by Young’s erratic outings, one or two mistakes should be enough to tilt this to the Falcons—have the guts to ride with the home side.
I’m siding with Atlanta at home because Carolina’s 5-5 urgency doesn’t erase the core problem: Young’s recent low yardage and turnovers squeeze the Panthers’ scoring window and gift short fields. Atlanta’s dropped 4 of its last 5, but inside Mercedes‑Benz with the roof closed this turns into a clean execution game, and the side less likely to hand it away has the path. The risk is Atlanta’s form and the pressure that comes with it, but with Carolina’s offensive ceiling capped by Young’s erratic outings, one or two mistakes should be enough to tilt this to the Falcons—have the guts to ride with the home side.
Broncos MoneylineI’m siding with Denver on the moneyline because they haven’t dropped a home game in over a season, and that Empower Field edge turns tight division games into grinders the Broncos win. Nix’s low turnover rate pairs with a home defense that tightens in this building, so Kansas City has to string long, mistake-free drives to keep pace. The Chiefs’ road form and recent losses flag real vulnerability when the game gets heavy, especially in Denver. Sure, if Denver stalls early the other sideline’s experience is a threat, but the Broncos’ home defensive record and ball security under Nix blunt those swings—so if you’ve got the guts, we ride with the home edge.
I’m siding with Denver on the moneyline because they haven’t dropped a home game in over a season, and that Empower Field edge turns tight division games into grinders the Broncos win. Nix’s low turnover rate pairs with a home defense that tightens in this building, so Kansas City has to string long, mistake-free drives to keep pace. The Chiefs’ road form and recent losses flag real vulnerability when the game gets heavy, especially in Denver. Sure, if Denver stalls early the other sideline’s experience is a threat, but the Broncos’ home defensive record and ball security under Nix blunt those swings—so if you’ve got the guts, we ride with the home edge.