The stored Gary board for Thu, May 15. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Ozuna is hitting .270 on the season and .333 (2-for-6) over his last 10, showing solid recent form. He gets on base and makes consistent contact, and faces Trevor Williams, who has a 1.57 WHIP and allows plenty of base runners. Ozuna has at least one hit in 33 of 40 games—a hit probability around 82%. At -200 (1.5 decimal), the line underestimates his consistency, giving us value on the over.
Bell is struggling badly with a .146 average this season and is hitless in his last 4 at-bats and last 10 games. He has only 19 hits in 37 games (a 51% hit rate per game), but with recent form and matchup against a deep Braves pitching staff, true hit probability is likely below 50%. At +140 (2.4 decimal), the under is a strong value as Bell's slump appears persistent and the Braves' pitching is above-average.
Despite a .219 average, Olson has 34 hits in 43 games (79% rate) and hits for power, meaning a single hit usually covers this line. Facing Trevor Williams (5.88 ERA, 1.57 WHIP), Olson should see opportunities. He has at least one total base in 8 of his last 10 games. The over is a solid play as his true probability is at least 76%.
Mullins has a solid recent form, batting .375 in his last 8 at-bats and .230 on the season. He faces Chris Paddack, who allows a .264 opponent batting average and a WHIP of 1.29, indicating he gives up good contact.
Rutschman is coming off a very strong recent stretch, with a .429 average and 3 hits in his last 7 at-bats, and .197 on the season. He’s seeing the ball well and is likely to be in the heart of the order. Paddack is an average contact manager, so Rutschman’s recent form should give him a high chance to record 1+ hit. Estimated true probability is 75%.
De La Cruz is hitting .250 over 44 games and .286 in his last 10 at-bats. He's facing Davis Martin (White Sox), whose WHIP is 1.36 and allows base runners at a steady clip. Elly has hit safely in the vast majority of games this season and is a high-contact, high-speed threat. True hit probability is around 88%, leading to a strong EV for a single hit.
Sosa is hitting .272 on the season and has at least one hit in 3 of his last 4 at-bats. He is one of the more consistent bats in the White Sox lineup and gets a decent matchup against a lefty in Lodolo. True probability of a hit is about 83%, supporting this over despite the juice.
Aranda is hitting .339 through 38 games with a .430 OBP and 41 hits in 38 games, showing elite consistency. He faces Kevin Gausman, who has a solid but not unhittable 3.97 ERA and allows about a hit per inning. Aranda's recent form and the fact that he bats in a strong Rays lineup gives him a high likelihood of at least one hit. My true probability estimate is 83% given Aranda’s season and matchup.
Despite a low season average (.207), Lowe is 6-for-18 (.333) in his last 10 games, indicating improved recent form. He'll face a Blue Jays starter (likely Gausman) who is good but not dominant against lefties. Lowe’s recent uptick in contact and being a regular in the lineup makes him a strong candidate to get at least one hit. True hit probability is about 80% given his recent surge.
Guerrero is batting .291 with 46 hits in 42 games (over 1 hit/game) and is 2-for-6 (.333) recently. He’s one of the most consistent hitters in MLB and faces Zack Littell, who has a 4.40 ERA and has allowed over a hit per inning this year. Guerrero's high contact rate and consistent plate appearances give him a strong chance for at least one hit. True probability is estimated at 85%.
Gausman is averaging 7.9 K/9 and has 40 strikeouts in 45.1 IP, with a recent 6.0 IP/4 K line. The Rays average about 8 strikeouts per game as a team, and Gausman still has swing-and-miss stuff. With his ability to pitch deep into games and a Rays lineup prone to Ks, he should clear this line over 70% of the time. My true probability: 75%.